Moody's affirmed Saudi Arabia’s A1 rating with a stable outlook and raised its GDP growth forecasts for the period to 2.5 percent in 2018, and 2.7 in 2019, instead of its previous expectations of 1.3 percent and 1.5 percent for the same period reported in April this year.
Moody's Investor Services is a credit rating incorporation that conducts economic research and financial analysis and evaluates private and government institutions in terms of financial and credit strength.
In its recent review, Moody’s noted that plans to diversify the Kingdom's economy away from oil are likely to contribute to the country's medium and long-term growth.
It also reviewed and adjusted its financial projections for the deficit after publication of the preliminary statement of the budget announcement for 2019.
Moody’s forecasts of the government deficit for the period 2018-2019 are around 3.5 percent and 3.6 percent respectively, instead of its previous expectations. The debt trend will also improve significantly over the next two years as debt is expected to remain below 25 percent of GDP in the medium term, a small percentage compared to the strong government financial position.
Moody’s commended Saudi Arabia’s reasonable control of expenditure, even in the face of higher oil revenues. It predicted that the Kingdom's financial deficit will decline to around 3.5 percent of the GDP in 2018, compared to its 9.3 percent level in 2017.
Moody's praised the Kingdom’s financial management and found that the volume of expenditure this year is consistent with what was planned in the government budget. It considers this as a result of government efforts to adjust spending levels throughout the year through proper planning, monitoring and control.
On the other hand, Moody’s acknowledged the outstanding results in the collection of non-oil revenues. Moody’s pointed out that revenues in the first half of this year rose by 43 percent, compared to the same period last year.
Regarding the Kingdoms credit rating, Moody's affirms the stable outlook which suggests that the risks to the ratings are broadly balanced. The government's reform program, including the plans to balance the fiscal budget by 2023, could over time offer a route back to a higher rating level.
Moody's also added a strong testament to the Kingdom’s credit strength: "In addition to the moderate funding requirements, the government is able to access ample sources of liquidity, from both domestic or international capital markets and financial reserves. It is unlikely to face problems in financing the fiscal deficit."
