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Morocco's Economic Growth Expected to Slow Down in Q1 2019

People shop in a photo illustration at vegetable market in Casablanca, Morocco, June 29, 2017. (File photo: Reuters)
People shop in a photo illustration at vegetable market in Casablanca, Morocco, June 29, 2017. (File photo: Reuters)
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Morocco's Economic Growth Expected to Slow Down in Q1 2019

People shop in a photo illustration at vegetable market in Casablanca, Morocco, June 29, 2017. (File photo: Reuters)
People shop in a photo illustration at vegetable market in Casablanca, Morocco, June 29, 2017. (File photo: Reuters)

Morocco’s economic growth is expected to record a 2.5 % during Q1 of 2019 compared to 3.3 % in Q1 2018, Morocco's Higher Planning Commission said on Wednesday.

Growth in the Q4 of 2018 was affected by the slowdown in added value, excluding agricultural activity, by 2.6 percent, compared with 3.4 percent during the same period of 2017.

The Commission said on its website that the agricultural sector grew 3.4 percent in Q4 of last year, compared to 4.1 percent during the first three quarters. This slowdown is partly due to the decline in livestock production.

Manufacturing growth in the last quarter of 2018, according to published estimates, also slowed to 2.8 percent from 3.2 percent in the same period a year earlier, as food industries slowed and demand for building materials fell.

However, chemical industry maintained its "dynamism" and grew 6.1 percent, and the added value of the textile and leather sectors increased 5.8 percent with the increase for the external demand for these products.

Mechanical and electronic industries grew 3.6 percent supported by demand from the automotive industry, stated the report.

Morocco's exports in the fourth quarter of 2018 increased 5.1 percent, thanks to higher sales in the aviation and automobile sectors, which contributed 80 percent to the growth rate of exports.

Food, clothing and electronics sectors contributed to a 0.9, 0.6 and 0.5 percent growth, respectively, as external demand for these products increased.

Imports recorded a 5.8 percent rate higher than exports, as the country was affected by the rise in global fuel prices, which contributed 2.2 points to import growth. In contrast, imports of foodstuffs, precisely wheat and sugar, declined during that period.

Industrial investment slowed in Q4, which was reflected on imports of processing materials that only increased 2.1 percent, compared to an 11 percent increase in the previous quarter.

Investment in construction was modest, with weak demand for housing, especially medium and high, stated the report.

For the first quarter of 2019, the Commission said that the expected slowdown will come from a decline in agricultural added value, estimated at 0.7 percent, although livestock production will see some improvement compared to the end of 2018.

“Overall, the non-agriculture added value is expected to record a 2.9 percent increase, according to the annual change.”

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Middle East War Reshaping National Energy Strategies, Says IEA

An empty fuel station, as India faces rising oil prices following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Halvad, Gujarat, India, May 22, 2026. (Reuters)
An empty fuel station, as India faces rising oil prices following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Halvad, Gujarat, India, May 22, 2026. (Reuters)
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Middle East War Reshaping National Energy Strategies, Says IEA

An empty fuel station, as India faces rising oil prices following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Halvad, Gujarat, India, May 22, 2026. (Reuters)
An empty fuel station, as India faces rising oil prices following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Halvad, Gujarat, India, May 22, 2026. (Reuters)

The Middle East war is pushing countries to open new supply routes and turn to domestic resources to tide over the world's biggest energy crisis, the International Energy Agency said Thursday.

"We are in the midst of the largest energy security crisis the world has ever faced -- and I believe this will reshape investment strategies globally, with parallels to the major changes the energy world witnessed after the oil shocks of the 1970s," said IEA executive director Fatih Birol

"We are already seeing intensified efforts by both producer and consumer countries to diversify trade routes and energy sources -- such as advancing new pipelines and other supply infrastructure, on the one hand, and turning more to domestically available resources, on the other," he added in the World Energy Investment report by the energy agency of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

The IEA estimates that global energy investment will reach $3.4 trillion in 2026, slightly higher than the previous year, with around $2.2 trillion devoted to power grids, storage, low-emission fuels, nuclear, renewables, energy efficiency and electrification.

Alongside this, around $1.2 trillion is expected to be invested in oil, natural gas and coal.

It nevertheless expects oil investment to decline for the third straight year in 2026, falling below $500 billion despite rising crude prices.

This is due to uncertainty over how long higher prices will last, project lead times, supply constraints and the tightening offshore rigs market, which are limiting short-term investment outside the Middle East.

By contrast, investment in natural gas is "projected to rise to $330 billion, the highest level in a decade, supported by a wave of new LNG export projects, particularly in the United States and Qatar," IEA said.

At the same time, oil-importing countries are turning to energy sources available domestically, notably renewables, nuclear and coal, the report said.

The IEA estimates that investment in renewables should reach around $665 billion in 2026, including $365 billion for solar alone.

Investment in nuclear energy and is set to exceed $80 billion annually while investment in coal should reach $180 billion -- the highest in 10 years, it said.

China alone will account for nearly 70 percent of global coal supply spending, and some Asian countries may seek to extend the operation of their existing coal-fired power plants in order to strengthen their energy security.

The IEA said investment in electricity supply and infrastructure is expected to reach nearly $1.6 trillion in 2026, including around $550 billion for power grids, while investment in battery storage should exceed $100 billion.

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ECB Chief Economist Sees Persistent Impact on Inflation from Iran War

The Euro currency symbol is seen prior to a press conference after an ECB's governing council meeting in Frankfurt, Germany, Dec. 18, 2025. (AP)
The Euro currency symbol is seen prior to a press conference after an ECB's governing council meeting in Frankfurt, Germany, Dec. 18, 2025. (AP)
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ECB Chief Economist Sees Persistent Impact on Inflation from Iran War

The Euro currency symbol is seen prior to a press conference after an ECB's governing council meeting in Frankfurt, Germany, Dec. 18, 2025. (AP)
The Euro currency symbol is seen prior to a press conference after an ECB's governing council meeting in Frankfurt, Germany, Dec. 18, 2025. (AP)

The energy shock caused by the Middle East conflict will likely have a persistent impact on inflation even if there is a quick solution to the war, the European Central Bank's chief economist, Philip Lane, said on Thursday.

While oil prices historically tended to revert to original levels after a burst of increases, the current episode may be different as energy costs may stay elevated with countries restocking inventory or diversifying their energy mix, he said.

"We had ‌an overnight, fairly ‌quick and big decline in global oil ‌supply, ⁠which has been ⁠masked until now by inventories," Lane said at a conference hosted by the BOJ and its think tank in Tokyo.

"Even if the initial energy shock starts to reverse, the second round (effects) will be with us for a while," he said.

With the energy shock pushing up prices, financial markets have fully priced in ⁠two hikes in the ECB's 2% deposit ‌rate and see a roughly 50% ‌chance of a third move over the next year. Economists are more ‌cautious and see just two hikes, followed by a cut ‌in mid-2027, a Reuters poll showed.

Lane said there could be some policy lessons from past energy shocks, such as that rising energy costs could push up inflation abruptly and cause "all sorts of non-linear" mechanisms ‌that broaden price hikes.

"But it's not the same non-linearity we had four years ago," when ⁠supply disruptions ⁠from the Ukraine war and strong demand from the COVID re-opening pushed up inflation, he said.

Central banks must acknowledge any substantial shocks and their potential impact on inflation, but avoid overreacting in setting monetary policy, Lane said.

"You have to be skillful in terms of looking at monetary transmission, consumer confidence and all these different mechanisms," he said.

While some inflationary pressures from a supply shock do calm down over time, it was important for central banks to make sure "there's no persistent belief in the population or among price-setting sectors that inflation is going to be too high for too long," he said.

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Dollar Firms to One-Week High as Gulf Tensions Flare, Yen Nears Intervention Zone

US dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 24, 2026. (Reuters)
US dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 24, 2026. (Reuters)
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Dollar Firms to One-Week High as Gulf Tensions Flare, Yen Nears Intervention Zone

US dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 24, 2026. (Reuters)
US dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 24, 2026. (Reuters)

The dollar firmed to a one-week high on Thursday after Middle East tensions ratcheted up following fresh US strikes on Iran, while the yen softened toward a level that triggered central bank intervention last month.

Iran's Revolutionary Guards said they targeted a US airbase after what they described as an early morning US attack near Bandar Abbas airport, Tasnim news agency reported, while Kuwait's army said its air defenses were intercepting hostile ‌missile and ‌drone threats.

That followed news that the US military ‌carried ⁠out new strikes targeting ⁠an Iranian drone operation that it said posed a threat to US forces and commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil prices rebounded and the safe-haven dollar steadied as hopes of a swift resolution to the war faded, with investors now increasingly expecting the greenback to break higher as the Federal Reserve shifts its focus to battling inflation amid elevated energy prices.

"Geopolitics and ⁠the subsequent inflation risks remain a key concern," Alex ‌Saunders, Citi's head of global quant ‌macro strategy, wrote. "We continue to see a trim in the USD underweight."

The euro was 0.2% ‌lower at $1.1600, while the pound was down nearly 0.3% at $1.3392.

The risk-sensitive ‌Australian dollar weakened 0.4% to $0.7111to a one-week low, and the New Zealand dollar was down 0.3% at $0.58831.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against a basket of six major peers, strengthened 0.17% to 99.464, near its highest level since ‌May 21.

Markets will now look ahead to today's release of the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE ⁠deflator, which ⁠will help shape the broader interest rate outlook.

The yen weakened to as far as 159.610 per dollar on Thursday, the lowest since April 30 and within sight of the 160 level that triggered intervention by Japanese authorities last month.

That intervention bought policymakers some breathing room, but questions linger over its lasting impact, said Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG.

"The broader question is whether it was worth it for what essentially amounts to just a single month's relief. And furthermore, will authorities have the stomach to write a similar-sized cheque if the 160 level is breached again in the coming sessions?" he said.

Markets are pricing a roughly 70% chance of a quarter-point interest rate rise at the BOJ's June 15–16 policy meeting, LSEG data showed.