Security risks facing the Middle East in 2019 are going to be dominated by climate change. For the same year, Europe will struggle, with hostility prevailing over unity, while the United States will stumble in its war on terror. These are some of the global challenges revealed in Risk Advisory’s Strategic Outlook 2019 report, “Towards a Zero-Sum World”.
The report, recently published by the London-based security consultancy, contains more than 260 forecasts on a range of issues relevant to security, crisis and geopolitical risk across every region.
Intended to be a practical working document, Strategic Outlook 2019 also provides dozens of early warning indicators for ongoing monitoring through the year. It flags outliers to challenge assumptions and encourages anticipation of higher-impact surprise events. And it provides thematic analysis across different regions to help readers interpret and predict intentions, actions and outcomes in 2019.
Across nearly every region, it forecast that authoritarian, right-wing and nationalist governments and movements will grow in strength and influence. The global balance of ideas and power is changing. And with it, the longer-term prospects for states to jointly tackle challenges like climate change,
The United States, considered the top global and the leader of the free world, lies at the heart of imminent threat. But the report noted that President Donald Trump’s policy has showed little interest in leading and maintaining the incumbent system. While other major powers, notably China, are focused on tailoring international balances according to their interests.
Within two years, Trump has managed to turn around decades of US foreign policy, eroding confidence in American hegemony. For medium- and long-term forecasts, his moves are likely to aid the rise of China and limit US influence.
As for the Middle East, Asia and Africa, the report said that governments are occupied with reexamining existing coalitions and modifying them to better serve their interests.
Trump, according to the report, has emboldened the growth of extreme right-wing groups in Europe.
“Extreme right-wing groups are likely to grow in strength and influence during 2019. We forecast that this will negatively affect security, particularly hate crime. There are also longer-term political stability implications for the region, as European Union member states struggle to coordinate responses to illiberal governments inside the bloc,” the report said.
Regional predictions
For the Middle East, climate change has been considered the major factor triggering security risks. The authors of the report chose a quote from Najib Saab, secretary-general of the Arab Forum for Environment and Development, which strikes a positive note: “Despite the lack of real progress in several countries, mainly those which are facing political unrest and instability, others have made strides toward shifting to a more sustainable path, with major financial resources directed toward investments in environmental infrastructure.”
The overall trend in the region is considered consistent. While strategic risk factors are expected to improve in Bahrain, Iraq, Palestine, Qatar and Syria, they will be consistent in Jordan, Kuwait and Oman, and worsening in Iran, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Yemen.
Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi, chosen to represent North Africa, has been quoted for the opening page as saying: “We won’t allow a water-shortage crisis to occur in Egypt. We not only have to keep our share of the Nile, but also use our share to the maximum.”
While the report sees the prospect of new resources harnessed, it predicts the same risks to linger in 2019. The overall trend in North Africa is projected as consistent, with only Tunisia improving, Chad, Djibouti, Egypt and Morocco stable, whereas it worsens in Algeria, Libya, Mali, Mauritania and Sudan.
The report predicts that the moves in North America to demilitarize the war on terrorism will not bring an easy win, especially with conflicts among the allies, triggered by Trump, who is quoted as saying: “We have $151 billion in trade deficits with the EU. And on top of that, they kill us with NATO. They kill us.”
To demonstrate the growing wave of populism in Europe itself, the report uses an anti-immigrant statement from Matteo Salvini, deputy prime minister of Italy: “We need a mass cleansing, also in Italy. Street by street, neighborhood by neighborhood, square by square.”
The Eurasia section starts with a quote from Russian President Vladimir Putin: “As you know, espionage, like prostitution, is one of the ‘most important’ professions in the world.”
It predicts that the region will steadily move toward an unsustainable future, with Moldova, Tajikistan, Turkey and Turkmenistan improving, and Azerbaijan, Belarus, Mongolia, Russia and Ukraine unchanged.
For South Asia, the report chose the title “Countering the Chinese March,” and the Asia-Pacific section opened with “democracy in balance.” The section included a controversial quote from Thai Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha: “Thai democracy will never die, because I’m a soldier with a democratic heart. I have taken over the power because I want democracy to live on.”
Meanwhile, major challenges in Latin America and the Caribbean will be absorbing the crisis in Venezuela.
