Q&A: Sudanese Face Uphill Climb in Unfinished Revolution

Protesters in Khartoum, Sudan. (AFP)
Protesters in Khartoum, Sudan. (AFP)
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Q&A: Sudanese Face Uphill Climb in Unfinished Revolution

Protesters in Khartoum, Sudan. (AFP)
Protesters in Khartoum, Sudan. (AFP)

The Sudanese Professionals Association, which led months of protests that eventually forced one of Africa's longest-ruling leaders from power, says its revolution is far from over.

The umbrella group of unions succeeded where war and sanctions failed — in ending President Omar al-Bashir's three-decade rule. This week the protesters scored another victory by forcing three figures seen as too close to the ousted regime to resign from the military council that assumed power after overthrowing al-Bashir on April 11.

The SPA says protesters will remain in the streets until the military hands power to a transitional civilian government. But as the standoff continues, it risks being drawn into the maelstrom of Sudanese politics, where politicians have bickered in the capital as rebellions have raged in the far-flung provinces of one of Africa's biggest and most chaotic countries.

The Associated Press takes a look at the SPA and the challenges it faces:

Who are the protesters and what do they want?
Under Bashir, the state controlled all professional associations, leading doctors, lawyers, engineers, teachers and others to form independent unions. Three years ago, they joined together and formed the SPA.

In December, as Sudan grappled with rising prices and shortages, the SPA planned a march to the capital, Khartoum, to demand wage increases. But when separate demonstrations over rising bread prices erupted in Atbara, a railway hub north of Khartoum, the SPA broadened its demands to the overthrow of the government, invoking slogans from the Arab Spring uprisings of 2011.

The group's decentralized leadership allowed it to keep organizing, even after the arrest of several of its leaders. Tech-savvy young people swelled its ranks, using social media to organize rallies and document the government's crackdown, said the AP.

The group established a mass sit-in outside the military headquarters in the capital on April 6. Five days later, the military removed Bashir from office, and he now languishes in a Khartoum jail that was filled with detained protesters in the months before his downfall.

The SPA has rallied other factions and civil society groups under its "Declaration of Freedom and Change."

The document calls for dismantling Bashir's regime and establishing an elected government with a new constitution. It also calls for ending "all discrimination and oppressive practices" toward women.

But the immediate focus is on pressuring the military to relinquish power. The SPA has called for the formation of a legislative council — in which at least 40 percent of the membership would be women — to draft laws and oversee a cabinet of technocrats until a new constitution is written.

Is civilian rule possible?
Sudanese history since independence in 1956 has been marked by long periods of military dictatorship punctuated by short bouts of dysfunctional parliamentary politics.

"The Sudanese people have no faith in political parties because those parties were always making compromises with the regime in order to garner parliamentary seats or cabinet portfolios," said Mohammed al-Neel, a 25-year-old protester.

"What is making the Sudanese Professionals Association garner all this following is the fact that it does not have any partisan leanings," he added, according to the AP.

The SPA may still struggle to negotiate Khartoum's politics.

The military has said it is reaching out to all political forces, raising fears among the SPA that it could cut deals with established parties, or even Bashir's National Congress Party, leaving much of his regime intact.

"The SPA is trusted by the Sudanese people, but it is one of five groups that formed the coalition," said Ibrahim al-Sheikh Abdel Rahman, a senior member of the opposition Sudanese Congress Party, which is part of the coalition. "We do not see the SPA as the leader of the revolution."

Ismail Adam, a senior member of the Umma Party, one of Sudan's oldest parties, said "it's true the SPA has risen with the people, but there is no democracy without political parties."

What about the provinces?
For decades, Sudan has been convulsed by rebellions in the provinces by ethnic and religious minorities who felt marginalized or oppressed by the Khartoum government.

When an insurgency broke out in the western Darfur province in 2003, Bashir mobilized militias known as the Janjaweed, who carried out a wave of atrocities against ethnic African groups there. The International Criminal Court later indicted al-Bashir on charges of genocide, the only time it has issued an arrest warrant for a sitting head of state, said the AP.

Another war has been underway since 2011 in the provinces of South Kordofan and Blue Nile. Rebels there announced a cease-fire earlier this month in support of the protests, which is expected to last until July 31.

The Declaration of Freedom and Change calls for ending Sudan's "civil wars" by "addressing the root causes," and reaching agreements that are "fair, just and comprehensive."

But that's a goal that has largely eluded all of Sudan's past governments, civilian and military. Prolonged unrest and a lingering economic crisis could fuel renewed demands for autonomy or outright independence among marginalized groups.

"The coalition is very cohesive now, because it is based on the minimum requirements for an agreement, which is the toppling of the regime," said Atef Ismail, a leader in the Sudanese Communist Party. "Everybody agrees on that."



Targeting of Deif: Symbolic Blow to Al-Qassam Brigades Deepens Leadership Crisis

Palestinians stand near covered bodies after an Israeli air strike in the Al-Mawasi area of Khan Yunis, southern Gaza Strip, 13 July 2024. EPA/MOHAMMED SABER
Palestinians stand near covered bodies after an Israeli air strike in the Al-Mawasi area of Khan Yunis, southern Gaza Strip, 13 July 2024. EPA/MOHAMMED SABER
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Targeting of Deif: Symbolic Blow to Al-Qassam Brigades Deepens Leadership Crisis

Palestinians stand near covered bodies after an Israeli air strike in the Al-Mawasi area of Khan Yunis, southern Gaza Strip, 13 July 2024. EPA/MOHAMMED SABER
Palestinians stand near covered bodies after an Israeli air strike in the Al-Mawasi area of Khan Yunis, southern Gaza Strip, 13 July 2024. EPA/MOHAMMED SABER

Israel killed dozens of Palestinians on Saturday in an attempt to assassinate Mohammed Deif, leader of Hamas’ military wing, the Al-Qassam Brigades, alongside his deputy, the head of the Khan Younis brigade, Rafa Salama.

This is at least the seventh attempt in 30 years to eliminate Deif.

Israel awaits confirmation of Deif’s death, which, if confirmed, would be a significant propaganda victory during the current Gaza conflict. Hamas denies Israel’s claims, calling the incident another civilian massacre.

The potential success of this operation raises questions about its impact on the Al-Qassam Brigades, whose leaders have been targeted since Israel’s recent conflict escalation following the Oct.7 attacks.

Understanding Deif’s role is crucial—he is the second leader of the Al-Qassam Brigades, assuming his position after the assassination by the Israeli army of its former commander, Salah Shahada, on July 23, 2002.

However, he is widely regarded as the architect of the group’s significant military strength.

Sources informed Asharq Al-Awsat that shortly after assuming leadership of Al-Qassam Brigades, specifically in 2003, Deif swiftly obtained authorization from Hamas’ political leadership to establish a large military force, effectively an army, and immediately began implementation.

Despite numerous assassination attempts and the loss of many of his aides and family members, Deif has never ceased in his efforts, persisting in building this “large army” which has over the years become the foremost Palestinian force and to some extent, a deterrent against Israel.

Since the Oct. 7 attacks, Israel’s repeated attempts to assassinate Deif have intensified, following six previous failed efforts.

Deif’s ability to evade capture elevated him beyond his role in Hamas’ Al-Qassam Brigades to a symbol of Palestinian resilience.

Israel claims Deif was the driving force behind Hamas’ military strength and the mastermind behind their tunnel network.

His potential absence could impact morale within Al-Qassam Brigades.

Nevertheless, Al-Qassam Brigades have a history of displaying flexibility in their military structure.

For example, when Israel assassinated Ahmed Jabari, known as Hamas’ “Chief of Staff,” in 2012, Marwan Issa was immediately appointed as his successor. In the aftermath of the Oct.7 attacks, Israel killed Issa.

Al-Qassam Brigades have a comprehensive military structure encompassing military justice, manufacturing, oversight, support and combat weapons, operations, intelligence, internal front, human resources, and institutes and colleges.

If Israel succeeds in assassinating Deif and Salama, it would have eliminated nearly all members of the military council.

The exceptions include Mohammed Shabana, leader of the Rafah Brigade, Azzedine al-Haddad, commander of the Gaza Brigade, and the uncertain fate of Raed Saad, previously claimed to be assassinated by Israel without confirmation, along with Mohammed al-Sinwar, brother of Gaza’s Hamas leader Yahya al-Sinwar.

The Sinwar brothers are known to be close associates of Deif and are believed to be alive.

Despite the ongoing assassinations that have targeted 14 brigade commanders and other leaders across Gaza, Hamas sources suggest that if Deif is killed and the Sinwar brothers survive, Mohammed al-Sinwar is likely to take over leadership of the Al-Qassam Brigades.

According to Hamas sources, the brigades’ future leadership will be decided by the political bureau, adapting to the operational situation.

Operations will continue under a structure established since the fourth month of the ongoing conflict, with each brigade following a hierarchical command from the brigade commander down to unit leaders, factions, and other military groups.

Despite losing many political and military leaders over the years, including its founders, Hamas remains strong in Gaza.