Q&A: Sudanese Face Uphill Climb in Unfinished Revolution

Protesters in Khartoum, Sudan. (AFP)
Protesters in Khartoum, Sudan. (AFP)
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Q&A: Sudanese Face Uphill Climb in Unfinished Revolution

Protesters in Khartoum, Sudan. (AFP)
Protesters in Khartoum, Sudan. (AFP)

The Sudanese Professionals Association, which led months of protests that eventually forced one of Africa's longest-ruling leaders from power, says its revolution is far from over.

The umbrella group of unions succeeded where war and sanctions failed — in ending President Omar al-Bashir's three-decade rule. This week the protesters scored another victory by forcing three figures seen as too close to the ousted regime to resign from the military council that assumed power after overthrowing al-Bashir on April 11.

The SPA says protesters will remain in the streets until the military hands power to a transitional civilian government. But as the standoff continues, it risks being drawn into the maelstrom of Sudanese politics, where politicians have bickered in the capital as rebellions have raged in the far-flung provinces of one of Africa's biggest and most chaotic countries.

The Associated Press takes a look at the SPA and the challenges it faces:

Who are the protesters and what do they want?
Under Bashir, the state controlled all professional associations, leading doctors, lawyers, engineers, teachers and others to form independent unions. Three years ago, they joined together and formed the SPA.

In December, as Sudan grappled with rising prices and shortages, the SPA planned a march to the capital, Khartoum, to demand wage increases. But when separate demonstrations over rising bread prices erupted in Atbara, a railway hub north of Khartoum, the SPA broadened its demands to the overthrow of the government, invoking slogans from the Arab Spring uprisings of 2011.

The group's decentralized leadership allowed it to keep organizing, even after the arrest of several of its leaders. Tech-savvy young people swelled its ranks, using social media to organize rallies and document the government's crackdown, said the AP.

The group established a mass sit-in outside the military headquarters in the capital on April 6. Five days later, the military removed Bashir from office, and he now languishes in a Khartoum jail that was filled with detained protesters in the months before his downfall.

The SPA has rallied other factions and civil society groups under its "Declaration of Freedom and Change."

The document calls for dismantling Bashir's regime and establishing an elected government with a new constitution. It also calls for ending "all discrimination and oppressive practices" toward women.

But the immediate focus is on pressuring the military to relinquish power. The SPA has called for the formation of a legislative council — in which at least 40 percent of the membership would be women — to draft laws and oversee a cabinet of technocrats until a new constitution is written.

Is civilian rule possible?
Sudanese history since independence in 1956 has been marked by long periods of military dictatorship punctuated by short bouts of dysfunctional parliamentary politics.

"The Sudanese people have no faith in political parties because those parties were always making compromises with the regime in order to garner parliamentary seats or cabinet portfolios," said Mohammed al-Neel, a 25-year-old protester.

"What is making the Sudanese Professionals Association garner all this following is the fact that it does not have any partisan leanings," he added, according to the AP.

The SPA may still struggle to negotiate Khartoum's politics.

The military has said it is reaching out to all political forces, raising fears among the SPA that it could cut deals with established parties, or even Bashir's National Congress Party, leaving much of his regime intact.

"The SPA is trusted by the Sudanese people, but it is one of five groups that formed the coalition," said Ibrahim al-Sheikh Abdel Rahman, a senior member of the opposition Sudanese Congress Party, which is part of the coalition. "We do not see the SPA as the leader of the revolution."

Ismail Adam, a senior member of the Umma Party, one of Sudan's oldest parties, said "it's true the SPA has risen with the people, but there is no democracy without political parties."

What about the provinces?
For decades, Sudan has been convulsed by rebellions in the provinces by ethnic and religious minorities who felt marginalized or oppressed by the Khartoum government.

When an insurgency broke out in the western Darfur province in 2003, Bashir mobilized militias known as the Janjaweed, who carried out a wave of atrocities against ethnic African groups there. The International Criminal Court later indicted al-Bashir on charges of genocide, the only time it has issued an arrest warrant for a sitting head of state, said the AP.

Another war has been underway since 2011 in the provinces of South Kordofan and Blue Nile. Rebels there announced a cease-fire earlier this month in support of the protests, which is expected to last until July 31.

The Declaration of Freedom and Change calls for ending Sudan's "civil wars" by "addressing the root causes," and reaching agreements that are "fair, just and comprehensive."

But that's a goal that has largely eluded all of Sudan's past governments, civilian and military. Prolonged unrest and a lingering economic crisis could fuel renewed demands for autonomy or outright independence among marginalized groups.

"The coalition is very cohesive now, because it is based on the minimum requirements for an agreement, which is the toppling of the regime," said Atef Ismail, a leader in the Sudanese Communist Party. "Everybody agrees on that."



West Bank Palestinians Rely on Israel for Essentials, Fear Collective Punishment

The body of 13-year-old Ghassan Gharib is carried on shoulders after he was shot dead by Israeli forces near Ramallah this July (AFP)
The body of 13-year-old Ghassan Gharib is carried on shoulders after he was shot dead by Israeli forces near Ramallah this July (AFP)
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West Bank Palestinians Rely on Israel for Essentials, Fear Collective Punishment

The body of 13-year-old Ghassan Gharib is carried on shoulders after he was shot dead by Israeli forces near Ramallah this July (AFP)
The body of 13-year-old Ghassan Gharib is carried on shoulders after he was shot dead by Israeli forces near Ramallah this July (AFP)

Palestinians in the West Bank, unlike those in Gaza, do not want an open war between Israel and Hezbollah. They know from past experiences that such a conflict would bring significant political and economic costs, impacting their daily lives and essential needs.

If they become prisoners in their own land, Israel would have no hesitation in harming or detaining them.

In a possible war between Israel and Hezbollah, Israel would likely isolate itself and close its borders, cutting off the Palestinians in the West Bank to prevent another front. This would mean restricted movement, halted travel, and a stop to the flow of goods to the West Bank.

Israel would also cut off electricity, water, and fuel to Palestinians, reserving these resources for itself during the crisis.

While Israel might manage such a situation, the Palestinian Authority, already in financial and security turmoil, would struggle severely. Israel is preparing for extreme scenarios, including prolonged blackouts, infrastructure damage, and shortages of basic supplies, which would also affect the Palestinians.

Life Support Cut

Recent remarks by Shaul Goldstein, head of Israel’s state-owned electricity company, about a potential power grid collapse if war breaks out with Hezbollah, have alarmed not only Israelis but also Palestinians in the West Bank who buy electricity from Israel.

“We are not in a good situation, and we are not prepared for a real war. We are living in a fantasy,” said Goldstein.

“We cannot promise electricity if there is a war in the north. After 72 hours without electricity, it will be impossible to live here. We are not prepared for a real war,” he added.

This issue extends to water and fuel as well.

Even before any potential conflict this summer, Palestinians are already experiencing water shortages. The Israeli national water company “Mekorot” has reduced water supplies to the West Bank, a punitive measure Palestinians have grown accustomed to.

Official figures show that the average daily water consumption per person in Israel, including the settlements, is 247 liters. This is nearly three times the average for a Palestinian in the West Bank, which is 82.4 liters. In Palestinian communities without a water network, it falls to just 26 liters.

Stockpiling Essentials

Many Palestinians in the West Bank already face severe water shortages, receiving running water for less than 10 days a month, while the rest goes to Israelis.

Statistics show that Israelis consume ten times more water than Palestinians in the West Bank. This disparity is expected to grow even further this year.

With the threat of a potential war, Palestinians understand they could be left without water, electricity, medicine, or fuel. This fear has led many to start stockpiling essentials like flour, canned goods, and bottled water.

“I didn’t want to wait any longer. I bought some flour, canned goods, and water,” said Saeed Abu Sherkh.

“Once war starts, panic will set in. Prices will skyrocket, and supplies will disappear. We might face the same harsh conditions Gazans experienced,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Gaza has suffered severe shortages of electricity, water, medicine, and basic supplies, reaching a point of famine.

Abu Sherkh, like many of his friends, prefers to be prepared. He has stocked up on flour, canned goods, bottled water, and even gasoline or diesel.

A recent test occurred when Iranian drones and rockets targeted Israel, making it difficult to access grocery stores. People rushed to buy essential food, while fuel stations ran out for several days, serving as a “simulation” for a real war.

Abdul Azim Awad does not want to face another such test.

“One hour after the Iranian drones hit, I couldn’t find many food items. I couldn't get fuel for days. I feared the war had actually started. I wasn’t prepared,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Despite this, Awad hopes not to endure another, more severe experience and does not want to see another war.

“We’re tired of war. The situation is tough. Businesses are suffering, the economy is collapsing. There are no salaries, and workers can’t go to Israel. Traders are complaining. Another long war with Lebanon would mean real devastation here. I think it would be catastrophic,” he added.