On Thursday, my Bloomberg Opinion colleague Mark Gongloff wrote: “America either is or is not sliding toward war with Iran, depending on the time of day, prevailing winds and relative hangriness of whoever happens to be making the War Decisions at the moment.”
Then things got even more unsettled.
As the New York Times reported, “President Trump approved military strikes against Iran in retaliation for downing an American surveillance drone, but pulled back from launching them on Thursday night after a day of escalating tensions.”
Where to begin? Frankly, I’m at a bit of a loss. The president is evidently ordering and countermanding military strikes while he has a lame-duck acting secretary of defense and an acting Air Force secretary. He’s handed key decisions over to a national security adviser whom he regularly bad-mouths. Meanwhile, he’s apparently consulting with goofball cable-news hosts to figure out some of the most important questions of his presidency.
It’s not as if his previous rounds of crises have been resolved. Not the trade war with China, not the appalling treatment of migrant families at the US border, not the standoff in Venezuela (which Trump apparently just got bored of and moved on).
As for what the president is up to in Iran? Peter Baker says: “For two and a half years, he has veered between bellicose threats against America’s enemies and promises to get the United States out of the intractable wars of the Middle East. Now he had to choose.” And yet rather than choosing, he seems to be going full speed ahead in both directions at once.
Even if we give Trump every benefit of the doubt, supposing – without evidence – that this was actually a well-considered plan that was designed to look like chaos for some as yet unknown but actually sensible reason, it’s still hard to imagine how allies can have any confidence in an administration that appears to act so impulsively.
Back on Thursday, three scholars of how wars start still found it possible to offer soothing words about how shooting down a drone shouldn’t lead to uncontrollable escalation. That’s somewhat reassuring, I guess.
But meanwhile, Trump’s professional reputation in Washington (and in capitals around the world) will take yet another hit, on a day when the president suffered yet another defeat in the Republican-majority Senate. None of this is likely to have any direct effect on Trump’s approval ratings or his re-election chances. But it will continue to make it less and less likely that anyone will do anything this president wants.
Bloomberg View
