Sudan’s Economy Shrinks 2.1% in Q2 2019

Sudan’s Economy Shrinks 2.1% in Q2 2019
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Sudan’s Economy Shrinks 2.1% in Q2 2019

Sudan’s Economy Shrinks 2.1% in Q2 2019

A report on the Ministry of Finance and National Economy’s performance for Q2 2019 revealed a budget deficit of 16 billion Sudanese pounds ($355 million), with revenues of 61.8 billion pounds ($1.37 billion) and expenditures of 77.8 billion pounds ($1.37 billion).

The growth rate has also declined to negative 2.1 percent.

Undersecretary of the Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning Dr. Abdul-Moneim al-Tayeb told Asharq Al-Awsat that 2019’s budget has faced challenges, notably weak revenues, lack of strategic goods and means to pay workers’ salaries.

He explained that the 77.8 billion pounds spent were allocated for strategic goods and salaries and to face the liquidity crisis that has been sweeping the country for more than a year now.

The 2019 budget has targeted achieving a growth rate by the end of this year in the range of 5.3 percent.

However, the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) economic outlook report has confirmed the decline in April to negative 2.1 percent despite Sudan’s nomination by several institutions, which expected growth in the country by up to five percent this year.

The World Bank said in a report in April Sudan’s GDP in 2019 is expected to grow by 3.1 percent in line with the forecasts of equal economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa.

The Bank said in its June Global Economic Prospects’ report that the country’s GDP growth will continue over the next two years, rising by 2.6 percent in 2018 to 3.1 percent in 2019 and 3.5 percent in 2020.

However, the latest data from the Arab Monetary Fund (AMF) indicated that the GDP growth of Sudan's economy shrank to negative 2.1 percent in 2018 and worsened to negative 2.3 percent for the current year 2019.

It also expected some improvement within the circle of contraction by a negative 1.3 percent in 2020.

Inflation also rose in the country to 52.59 percent in July, compared with 47.78 percent in June and 44.95 percent in May.

Economic Professor at the University of Expatriates Mohamed al-Nayer, for his part, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the Sudanese economy has faced a series of challenges during the last three decades that affected its growth potential and macroeconomic balances.



ECB President Fears Loss of Central Bank Independence

President of the European Central Bank (ECB) Christine Lagarde attends a plenary session during the 55th annual meeting of the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland, 24 January 2025. EPA/MICHAEL BUHOLZER
President of the European Central Bank (ECB) Christine Lagarde attends a plenary session during the 55th annual meeting of the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland, 24 January 2025. EPA/MICHAEL BUHOLZER
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ECB President Fears Loss of Central Bank Independence

President of the European Central Bank (ECB) Christine Lagarde attends a plenary session during the 55th annual meeting of the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland, 24 January 2025. EPA/MICHAEL BUHOLZER
President of the European Central Bank (ECB) Christine Lagarde attends a plenary session during the 55th annual meeting of the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland, 24 January 2025. EPA/MICHAEL BUHOLZER

Central bank independence is being questioned in parts of the world and greater political influence over policy could undermined their ability to keep inflation down, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said on Monday.

US President Donald Trump said last week he would demand that the Federal Reserve lower borrowing costs, claiming that he knew interest rates much better than people in charge of making that decision, Reuters said.

"While recent research suggests that de jure central bank independence has never been more prevalent than it is today, there is no doubt that the de facto independence of central banks is being called into question in several parts of the world," Lagarde told a Hungarian central bank conference.

The Fed is expected to keep interest rates on hold this week even as the ECB is likely to cut, arguing that inflation is coming down only slowly and that some policy proposals of the Trump administration could actually increase price pressures, likely drawing criticism from the White House.

Lagarde meanwhile warned that political interference could lead to a "vicious circle" that might result in central bank independence being undermined.

"Political influence on central bank decisions can also contribute substantially to macroeconomic volatility," Lagarde said in a video address to Hungary, where Prime Minister Viktor Orban's political ally, former Finance Minister Mihaly Varga, was appointed as the bank's next governor from March.

Lagarde said that persistent political pressure on a central bank increases exchange rate volatility, and raises bond yields and the risk premia.

This sort of volatility could make it more difficult to keep inflation down, raising concerns that independent central banks are failing to deliver on their mandates, Lagarde said.

Such a sequence of events, she said, could then undermine the social consensus and further amplify volatility in the economy.