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Exclusive - Russia Exerting Greater Influence in Easing Lebanese-Israeli Tensions

A general view picture shows the Lebanese village of Adaisseh on the left-hand-side of the Israel-Lebanon border, as seen from Kibbutz Misgav Am in northern Israel August 26, 2019. (Reuters)
A general view picture shows the Lebanese village of Adaisseh on the left-hand-side of the Israel-Lebanon border, as seen from Kibbutz Misgav Am in northern Israel August 26, 2019. (Reuters)
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Exclusive - Russia Exerting Greater Influence in Easing Lebanese-Israeli Tensions

A general view picture shows the Lebanese village of Adaisseh on the left-hand-side of the Israel-Lebanon border, as seen from Kibbutz Misgav Am in northern Israel August 26, 2019. (Reuters)
A general view picture shows the Lebanese village of Adaisseh on the left-hand-side of the Israel-Lebanon border, as seen from Kibbutz Misgav Am in northern Israel August 26, 2019. (Reuters)

Israel’s latest actions in confronting or stoking regional tensions appear to be related in one way or another with Russia’s attempts to bolster its presence in the Middle East. In wake of the limited confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah on the southern Lebanon border last week, Lebanese and Israeli officials turned to Moscow to contain the tensions.

Soon after, Tel Aviv announced that arrangements were underway for another meeting of the national security advisers of Israel, Russia and the United States to discuss regional affairs and bridge divides over how to handle Iran in Syria and Lebanon. It was later announced that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was set to visit Sochi for talks with President Vladimir Putin ahead of general elections in Israel on September 17.

“All roads lead to Moscow,” boast Russian analysts when addressing Moscow’s growing influence in the Middle East. Russia is seeking to play a greater role in affairs it was not previously involved in, such as tensions between Israel and Hezbollah. Moscow had during the latest flare-up intensified its contacts with concerned parties to contain the tensions.

Russian diplomatic sources acknowledged concerns that Lebanon and Israel were “one step away” from a new war. Should a new conflict erupt, it will not create a major change in the current balance of power, it will however, be costly for Moscow, which believes that any major confrontation will jeopardize its plans in Russia. This explains why Russia was quick to contact Lebanese and Russian parties to avert a major conflict.

Arab and Russian sources said Moscow was informed by Israel and Hezbollah that they were not seeking a greater conflict. Russia informed Israel that there would be no change in the current rules of engagement and Hezbollah’s attack against its armored vehicle was only aimed at saving face. Neither Israel nor the Iran-backed party want a greater conflict.

Russian experts concluded that their country had now gained greater influence in the region and now held sway over its most complicated conflicts.

Expanded Russian efforts

Russian military sources confirmed that Moscow has indeed started to become more involved in easing Lebanese-Israeli tensions, adding that Iran was “helping a lot” in this regard. Moscow has been successful in playing this role due to its good relations with Israel and Lebanon. This does not mean, however, that a flare-up can be ruled out after the Israeli elections because there are other players in the arena, meaning the United States, warned the experts. Moreover, the Lebanese-Israeli conflict is connected to other regional files, including the situation in Syria, Iran’s malign policies and Washington’s efforts to impose a new status quo that would facilitate the implementation of its yet undisclosed Middle East peace proposal.

Tripartite security meeting

Meanwhile, Netanyahu’s announcement that he was seeking to hold a new meeting for the security advisers of Israel, Russia and the US offers a new dimension to the recent regional developments. Sources said that the meeting may be held in Jerusalem in the coming weeks. An informed source told Asharq Al-Awsat, however, that Moscow has not yet decided whether it will join because it was still studying what it could gain from it.

The national security chiefs had met in Jerusalem in June to discuss Syria and Iran’s presence there. They failed to reach common ground on the issue. Head of Russia’s Security Council Nikolai Patrushev had said at the time that Moscow was keen on ensuring Israel’s security, but this can be first achieved by restoring calm in Syria.

It therefore, became clear that the main dispute was not about discussing Iran’s entrenchment in Syria or its regional policies, but rather, Russia’s refusal to succumb to dictates. An informed diplomatic source told Asharq Al-Awsat that Moscow does not oppose meeting with Israeli and American officials to discuss Iran, but it refuses to join negotiations with predetermined outcomes. In other words, Moscow is flexible about discussing the pullout of Iranian and Russian forces from Syria, but this should take place within negotiations that push forward peace in favor of Bashar Assad’s regime and ensure the security demands of Iran.

Patrushev had said in June that Moscow believes it was more effective to talk with Iran than exert pressure on it. “We understand Israel’s concerns and we want to eliminate the current threats, but at the same time, we must take into consideration the national interests of other regional countries,” he remarked.

Complete Russian-Iranian understanding

This is the main contentious point that impeded progress during the June meeting and the dispute still lingers to this day. Moscow wanted a different result from the talks. It wanted to transform the tripartite meeting into a permanent channel of communication and discussions, not just about Iran, but all other regional affairs that interest the three countries. While still pursuing this goal, Moscow may agree to join the next round of talks.

Furthermore, Russian observers say that Moscow is open to dialogue, but it is not in a rush to offer concessions. One expert said that Russia’s main demand from the US and Israel in Syria is to avoid provoking Iran. This stance is a result of the Russia–Syria–Iran–Iraq coalition that was set up in 2015 as part of the war against the ISIS terrorist group. Russia’s stances are completely aligned with those of the other members of the coalition.

Netanyahu in Sochi

Netanyahu’s upcoming visit to Sochi, meanwhile, is not only aimed at boosting his chances ahead of the elections, but it will be an opportunity to tackle latest regional developments. He will discuss with Putin the situation in Lebanon and Russia’s role in containing the tensions. He will also address Israel’s expansion of strikes against Iran in Syria to also include Iraq. Russian media had reported that Israel was no longer giving Russia enough advance notice of the coordinates of its strikes, in violation of agreements between them.

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Long-Suffering Yemeni Families Flee Renewed Fighting

A displaced woman sits outside her tent at a makeshift camp for people displaced by clashes between Iran-aligned Houthi fighters and Yemeni government forces, in Taiz province, Yemen September 21, 2026. (Reuters)
A displaced woman sits outside her tent at a makeshift camp for people displaced by clashes between Iran-aligned Houthi fighters and Yemeni government forces, in Taiz province, Yemen September 21, 2026. (Reuters)
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Long-Suffering Yemeni Families Flee Renewed Fighting

A displaced woman sits outside her tent at a makeshift camp for people displaced by clashes between Iran-aligned Houthi fighters and Yemeni government forces, in Taiz province, Yemen September 21, 2026. (Reuters)
A displaced woman sits outside her tent at a makeshift camp for people displaced by clashes between Iran-aligned Houthi fighters and Yemeni government forces, in Taiz province, Yemen September 21, 2026. (Reuters)

As fighting escalates once again in Yemen's long-running war, thousands of families have been forced from their homes, many of them for a second or third time.

In the Al-Farsi camp in Aden, Arwa told AFP how she, her husband and their four children left Mokha on Yemen's western coast as it was seized by Iran-backed Houthi fighters.

They shared a single motorcycle to travel 200 kilometers, first to Al-Arah in the Lahj governorate and then on to Aden, temporary seat of Yemen's government.

"We couldn't find any means of transport... We stayed out in the cold and didn't have clothes to keep us warm," Arwa told AFP at the camp, where sat on the ground by a tent.

The camp currently hosts 128 families living under canvas along dirt paths where barefoot children run.

Their tents are sparsely equipped -- some bedding, cooking pots, and a few clothes and belongings that the families managed to bring with them when they ran.

It is not the first time Arwa has been forced to flee her home.

Nine years ago she left Maqbanah in Taiz governorate to head to Mokha, also because of the war.

"I hope I can find a house to live in with my children. We're exhausted by the heat, the dust and the humiliation," she said. "I hope the situation improves and we can return to our home and our families."

Armin Yedgarian, a representative of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, said the camp was "in dire need of more support", adding that its 8,800 inhabitants included many elderly people and women with children.

International organizations, including the World Food Program, distribute meals to the displaced.

Arwa received a portion of rice to feed her children. But she regrets that her seven-year-old daughter, her only school-aged child, has not been attending class since the family was forced to head to Aden.

- No schooling -

At Aden's Al-Firdaws camp, which currently shelters about 110 families who arrived over the past two weeks, the acting representative of UNICEF's office in Yemen, Obiya Atchieng, told AFP that families' needs were not limited to food and basic supplies.

"Most of the children were enrolled in schools," he says. "Our team carried out a field visit to assess the possibility of providing education services."

Last week, UNICEF said 57,000 children had been displaced inside Yemen in just two weeks and 243 schools had been closed or suspended, affecting more than 137,000 students.

Even before the latest escalation, 3.2 million school-age children were not enrolled.

After years of relative calm, Yemen's civil war flared back to life in July against the backdrop of the broader conflict in the Middle East.

In the past 10 days, a surprise Houthi offensive enabled the group to expand its areas of control as far as the strategic Bab al-Mandeb Strait linking the Indian Ocean to the Red Sea, and by extension, the Suez Canal.

- 'Hearts beating' -

As a result of a 2022 ceasefire, those under the age of four have not previously experienced conflict of this intensity.

"The sounds of explosions were new to the children, and now any loud noise unsettles them, even if it's a motorcycle," said one 39-year-old father of two who remained in Mokha despite the Houthi takeover.

"I try to reassure them and convince them there is no danger. But even when they're in my arms, I can feel their hearts beating rapidly against my chest."

The man said he had been displaced from the city of Hodeidah eight years ago, and had no desire for it to happen again.

Noha, a housewife and mother of two children aged eight and 10, said she broke down in tears when she heard they were fleeing from Al-Khokha in western Yemen -- which the Houthis captured less than two weeks ago -- to her husband's family home in Aden.

"Because I cried, the children cried. We left in a bus with our neighbors and I haven't been able to make the children feel safe."

"Today I learned that my neighbor, a mother of six children who was in her final month of pregnancy, was also displaced and died in Aden two days after we arrived because of postpartum hemorrhage," she said.

"The newborn baby girl is in the incubator, and the other children and her husband are in a terrible, miserable state."

Features

Trump Shattered Canada’s Old US Relationship. Carney is Building a New One in Europe

FILE- Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney, front left, speaks with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at the European Parliament in Strasbourg, eastern France, Thursday, Sept 17, 2026. (AP Photo/Pascal Bastien, File)
FILE- Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney, front left, speaks with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at the European Parliament in Strasbourg, eastern France, Thursday, Sept 17, 2026. (AP Photo/Pascal Bastien, File)
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Trump Shattered Canada’s Old US Relationship. Carney is Building a New One in Europe

FILE- Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney, front left, speaks with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at the European Parliament in Strasbourg, eastern France, Thursday, Sept 17, 2026. (AP Photo/Pascal Bastien, File)
FILE- Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney, front left, speaks with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at the European Parliament in Strasbourg, eastern France, Thursday, Sept 17, 2026. (AP Photo/Pascal Bastien, File)

For nearly four decades, Canada built its economy around closer integration with the United States. President Donald Trump has turned that dependence into leverage, imposing tariffs, threatening Canada’s sovereignty and openly seeking to pull Canadian industrial production south.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has moved on. Rather than return to trade talks or wait for the next US president to restore the old relationship, he is urgently building a future in which Canada is less dependent on America, The Associated Press said.

Last week, Carney embraced the prospect of Canada becoming the European Union’s first associate member, not as a step toward full membership, but as a way to reduce Canada’s dependence on any single country without ceding control over its own decisions.

“There is now a price to be paid for access to the United States market,” Carney said Sunday, pointing to tariffs, US investment commitments and demands for domestic policy changes.

Carney told the European Parliament on Thursday that countries need enough economic strength to keep any one power from dictating their choices.

Building options beyond the US

He carried that argument into a meeting Sunday with French President Emmanuel Macron in Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon, the French territory just off Newfoundland’s coast.

“Canada and Europe will build an alliance for the future that will strengthen our collective resilience so we can live our lives as we choose based on the values that we share,” Carney said while standing alongside Macron.

Carney’s relentless schedule reflects the urgency of his push to build alternatives to the United States.

He began last week in Toronto hosting some of the world’s biggest investors, flew to Strasbourg, France, for European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s State of the European Union address, raced to Liverpool, England, to meet Britain’s new prime minister and returned to Strasbourg to address the European Parliament.

He met Macron in Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon before flying back to Ottawa to meet Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre. On Monday, he is set to open a new session of Parliament before heading to New York for the United Nations General Assembly.

Europe becomes the alternative

Trump has suggested Canada’s closer relationship with the EU could amount to a “hostile act” and threatened “very heavy tariffs” on Europe if he judged the move unfriendly.

Canada could become a test case for other middle powers trying to avoid being pushed around by larger countries. In his speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, in January, Carney argued that “middle powers must act together,” warning that “if you’re not at the table, you’re on the menu.”

Støre echoed Carney on Sunday, saying tariffs should not become “a weapon to be used against countries, because we will all end up losers.”

The next major step in shaping that proposed relationship is an Oct. 29-30 Canada-EU summit in Montreal.

Unwinding 40 years of dependence

For Canada, that means undoing some of the reliance developed over nearly 40 years.

The 1989 Canada-US Free Trade Agreement and later NAFTA deepened integration, creating cross-border supply chains in autos, energy and manufacturing. Roughly 70% of Canada’s exports went to the US Europe remains nowhere close to replacing the US market.

Carney walked away from trade negotiations in August rather than accept terms he said Ottawa could not live with. The talks remain suspended, and Carney said Friday that leaving the table was the right decision.

“It was easy business, but it meant we relied too much on one economic partner,” Carney said recently. “That time is over.”

Investment chair wants to ‘crank the non-US’

Dominic Barton, Carney’s pick to chair Invest in Canada and a former global head of McKinsey & Co., said diversification does not mean abandoning the United States.

“We can’t complacently count on it,” Barton said. “It’s not about, let’s not do stuff with the US It’s let’s crank the non-US Let’s be way more ambitious on that side.”

Barton, a former Canadian ambassador to China, said Canada has been too inward-looking.

“We are not very global,” he said, calling Trump’s pressure a “jolt” Canada should use to build more global companies.

Carney wants to double non-US trade over the next decade and aims for a free-trade deal with India by year’s end. He said Canada’s tariff-free access to 1.5 billion consumers could double within six months.

Canada sells the trust America is losing

Carney is trying to turn growing doubts about the US as a predictable place to invest into a Canadian advantage. His pitch to global capital is increasingly clear: where Trump’s America uses tariffs and uncertainty as leverage, Canada offers stability, rule of law and reliability.

“The most sought after commodity today is trust,” Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne said. “The world has changed and America has changed. And I think the world has taken notice.”

Trump may ultimately have done Canada a favor by forcing the country to confront its dependence, Barton said.

“Maybe in 20 years, we’ll thank Trump for shaking us out of our complacency,” Barton said. “Let’s use the moment.”

The ambition has limits. EU “associate membership” does not yet exist, and Europe cannot quickly replace a US market that buys nearly three-quarters of Canadian exports.

But Carney is hardly alone in concluding that Canada must rely less on the United States.

Former Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper, from the opposition Conservatives, said the government “had no choice but to take this path.”

That conclusion was particularly difficult for Harper as “one who has long been and known to be a great admirer of America” and who regarded Canada’s close relationship with the US as “among this country’s most precious assets.”

The current US administration now views the countries’ economic integration as incompatible with Canada maintaining its sovereignty, he said.

“Thus, to maintain that sovereignty, we must pursue diminished reliance on the United States,” Harper said. “I do find this all very sad, just as equally necessary.”

Features

Voluntary Return or Pushed Out Against their Will? Migrants in Tunisia Go Home

African migrants during a protest demanding to be repatriated because of the harsh conditions they are living under in Tunisia (AFP)
African migrants during a protest demanding to be repatriated because of the harsh conditions they are living under in Tunisia (AFP)
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Voluntary Return or Pushed Out Against their Will? Migrants in Tunisia Go Home

African migrants during a protest demanding to be repatriated because of the harsh conditions they are living under in Tunisia (AFP)
African migrants during a protest demanding to be repatriated because of the harsh conditions they are living under in Tunisia (AFP)

Less than a year after arriving in Tunisia, Michael Oppona had not planned to return to Ghana.

But, faced with increasingly harsh pressure from local authorities, he is among thousands of sub-Saharan migrants seeking to head home.

Many, like Oppona, have registered for a free return to their countries of origin.

But humanitarians say many migrants and refugees are being pushed out against their will.

Oppona, 37, had crossed the Sahara with his wife and two toddlers before arriving in Tunis but Europe proved out of reach after a 2023 deal with Tunis to curb migrant departures.

"The people here, the government... they treat us like we're not human," said Oppona, waiting for a "voluntary return" appointment near the International Organization for Migration headquarters in Tunis.

Many sub-Saharan migrants in Tunisia face increasingly harsh conditions following a speech by President Kais Saied in 2023 in which he said "hordes of illegal migrants" were posing a demographic threat.

The IOM told AFP it had helped 4,965 migrants return to their countries of origin from January 1 to August 31.

The IOM's program is separate from a namesake program run by the Tunisian government, and operates a major "return hub" near the city of Sfax.

Authorities did not respond to several requests by AFP for interviews and a visit the center.

In June, a Tunisian National Guard official told AFP that nearly 5,000 migrants had been sent to their home countries in the preceding 12 months and that "near-daily" return flights were now scheduled.

But humanitarian sources say these returns should not be considered "voluntary", arguing that socio-economic and political pressures including racism were deliberately forcing migrants to leave Tunisia.

"These are clearly expulsions," one source said.

Humanitarian sources also said migrants were at times coerced to leave even when it was unsafe for them in their home country.

"Authorities say that migrants stay at the so-called 'return hubs' for about two weeks, whereas we know that that process can take months, especially with people without documentation," one said.

The sources also said the conditions in which migrants were held were unclear, adding that some might have been sent to the wrong country.

"We've seen that more people have been arriving in Libya lately," one said.

UN experts in July said they were alarmed by an "alleged system of mass detention, expulsion and trafficking" at the Tunisia-Libya border.

Neither Tunisian nor Libyan authorities have commented on the allegations.

The humanitarian sources to whom AFP spoke also raised concerns over the lack of official information regarding the government's return program.

"We don't know how the authorities have been repatriating people who hold no documents, for example," one source said.

More than 40 global NGOs have said that refugees and migrants in Tunisia faced harsh mistreatment, including rape, according to testimonies they gathered.

In a joint statement in July, the NGOs -- including Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International -- said "refugees, asylum seekers and migrants have faced racist violence" in Tunisia, added to "arbitrary detention, collective expulsions, abuse, torture and other ill-treatment".

Their statement marked the three-year anniversary of a controversial deal the European Union signed with Tunisia to provide Tunis with financing, equipment and training to stop irregular departures.

The groups said the deal came at "a significant cost to human rights and dignity" and called the EU "complicit".

Campaigners say Tunisia's crackdown on organizations that supported migrants, compounded by the suspension of the UN refugee agency's operations in 2024, have barred thousands from receiving help.

Using pseudonyms, 24-year-old Moussa and 22-year-old Karim from Guinea also waited for an IOM "voluntary return" appointment in Tunis.

The two friends said they came to Tunis three years ago with one aim: to cross to Europe.

"But it's impossible to go now, and impossible to stay," said Karim.

Moussa said there was "more pressure now", his voice shaking.

"You're not free. The police prevent you from going anywhere -- to work or get something to eat," he said.

"So why not go back home?"