Israel's Netanyahu Down but Not out after Failing to Form Government

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. (Reuters)
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. (Reuters)
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Israel's Netanyahu Down but Not out after Failing to Form Government

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. (Reuters)
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. (Reuters)

For the first time in a decade, someone other than Benjamin Netanyahu will be asked to form a government in Israel.

The 70-year-old prime minister has called two elections this year, has twice been given the chance by the president to put together a ruling coalition, and has twice failed.

The fact that President Reuven Rivlin will now turn to someone else leaves Netanyahu even more vulnerable in his fight for political survival.

But although he has failed, the man now set to try his hand, centrist general-turned-politician Benny Gantz, also has no clear path to success.

Reuters looks at some of the possible scenarios, including even a third parliamentary election in less than a year, following two inconclusive elections in April and September.

Why is Israeli politics in deadlock?

Shortly after the September 17 election ended in stalemate, Rivlin gave Netanyahu 28 days to put together a governing coalition.

During that period, which expires on Wednesday, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister persuaded only 55 of parliament’s 120 members, including his traditional far-right and ultra-Orthodox Jewish allies, to join his right-wing Likud Party in a government.

Having fallen six seats short of a ruling majority, Netanyahu “returned” his mandate to the president on Tuesday, and a spokesman for Rivlin said Gantz would now get his chance.

One way out of the stalemate would be for the two largest parties, Likud and Gantz’s new Blue and White party, to form a “national unity” government.

Early talks centered on the possibility of a rotating premiership but led nowhere. Gantz, a former armed forces chief, refused to join a government led by Netanyahu, citing looming indictments against the prime minister in three corruption cases in which Netanyahu has denied any wrongdoing.

Gantz also said he wants a “liberal” government, shorthand for one that does not include Netanyahu’s religious partners.

Has this happened before?

The last time anyone other than Netanyahu was asked to form a government in Israel was in 2008 when Tzipi Livni, of the now-defunct Kadima party, was given the chance and failed.

That led to an election in 2009 which was won by Netanyahu. Livni never returned to front-line politics, a precedent that is not lost on Netanyahu.

What happens next?

After receiving the formal nomination from Rivlin, on Wednesday or Thursday, Gantz will have 28 days to build a coalition. As things stand now, he has the endorsement of 54 lawmakers, seven short of a parliamentary majority.

But 10 of those 54 legislators belong to a four-party Arab alliance. No party drawn from Israel’s 21 percent Arab minority has ever been invited to join an Israeli government or has sought to serve in one.

Without a deal with Netanyahu, Gantz could seek to form a minority government, with Arab lawmakers’ backing from the sidelines. But that is a big political risk in a country where Arab citizens’ loyalty has been hotly debated.

Arab lawmakers would be likely to face criticism from within their own community for propping up an Israeli government’s policies toward what many regard as their fellow Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza.

And if Gantz also comes up short?

A three-week period would ensue in which 61 lawmakers can ask the president to assign the coalition-building task to any legislator — Netanyahu, Gantz or another. If no such request is made in that time, parliament dissolves itself and an election is called — political pundits say March 17 is a possible date.

That could give Netanyahu another chance at the ballot box, barring a Likud rebellion against him.

What about Netanyahu’s legal troubles?

The deck could be reshuffled once Attorney-General Avichai Mandelblit announces whether he will follow through with his plan to indict Netanyahu in three graft investigations. His final decision is widely expected by the end of the year.

Netanyahu faces no legal requirement to leave government if indicted, but criminal charges against him - and their degree of severity - could further weaken him politically.

Netanyahu could face fraud and breach of trust charges in all three cases, and bribery charges in one.

Are there any wildcards?

Avigdor Lieberman, a former Netanyahu ally and ex-defense minister, heads the ultranationalist Yisrael Beitenu which won eight parliamentary seats in last month’s election. He has remained on the fence so far, citing policy differences with Likud’s ultra-Orthodox backers and Blue and White’s left-wing allies.

He effectively prevented Netanyahu from building a ruling coalition after this year’s first election, boosted his standing in the second and could be a kingmaker in the third.



Iran Says it's Ready for Nuclear Talks with the US but only if Washington Rebuilds Trust

Iran’s Ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency, IAEA, Kazem Gharibabadi, waits for the start of the IAEA board of governors meeting at the International Center in Vienna, Austria, Nov. 21, 2019. (AP Photo/Ronald Zak, file)
Iran’s Ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency, IAEA, Kazem Gharibabadi, waits for the start of the IAEA board of governors meeting at the International Center in Vienna, Austria, Nov. 21, 2019. (AP Photo/Ronald Zak, file)
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Iran Says it's Ready for Nuclear Talks with the US but only if Washington Rebuilds Trust

Iran’s Ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency, IAEA, Kazem Gharibabadi, waits for the start of the IAEA board of governors meeting at the International Center in Vienna, Austria, Nov. 21, 2019. (AP Photo/Ronald Zak, file)
Iran’s Ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency, IAEA, Kazem Gharibabadi, waits for the start of the IAEA board of governors meeting at the International Center in Vienna, Austria, Nov. 21, 2019. (AP Photo/Ronald Zak, file)

Iran is ready to engage in talks on its nuclear program with the United States, but only if Washington takes meaningful steps to rebuild trust, a senior Iranian diplomat said Thursday, ahead of a key meeting with European officials.

That meeting will be the first since a ceasefire was reached after a 12-day war waged by Israel against Iran in June, which also saw US B-52 bombers strike nuclear-related facilities in the Islamic Republic.

The discussions will bring Iranian officials together with officials from Britain, France and Germany — known as the E3 nations — and will include the European Union’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas. A similar meeting had been held in the Turkish city in May.

Iran's conditions In a social media post, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said Thursday that for talks with the Unites States, Tehran would seek that “several key principles” be upheld, The AP news reported.

These include “rebuilding Iran’s trust — as Iran has absolutely no trust in the United States," he said, adding there could be no room “for hidden agendas such as military action, though Iran remains fully prepared for any scenario.”

Washington would have to respect and recognize Iran’s rights under the international agreement known as the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, including the right to enrich uranium “in line with its legitimate needs” and the lifting of crippling economic sanctions on Iran.

The talks in Istanbul will be held at the deputy ministerial level, with Iran sending Majid Takht-e Ravanchi, the other of Iran's two deputy foreign ministers.

A show of strength Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a televised interview Thursday that Tehran would not back down from uranium enrichment. Before the war in June, Iran was enriching uranium up to 60% — a short, technical step from weapons-grade levels.

“Our enrichment will continue, and we will not give up this right of the Iranian people,” Araghchi said in a video posted on the state TV’s Telegram channel.

Iran’s top diplomat said the Istanbul talks with the European parties are necessary, especially after the 12-day war, to make them aware that Iran’s positions remain strong.

“The world must know that there has been no change in our stance,” he said. "We will continue to firmly defend the rights of the Iranian people to peaceful nuclear energy, especially regarding enrichment.”

Araghchi also said that Iran has always been ready to advance its peaceful program within a reasonable and logical framework. “We have never hesitated to build trust with countries that may have concerns,” he said, “but at the same time, Iran’s demand is that its right to peaceful nuclear energy, including enrichment, be respected.”

High stakes European leaders have threatened to trigger a “snapback” mechanism included in a 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, which would reimpose sanctions that were lifted in exchange for Iran accepting restrictions and monitoring of its nuclear program.

The United Kingdom, France and Germany were signatories to the 2015 deal. The US withdrew in 2018 during the first term of President Donald Trump, who insisted the agreement wasn’t tough enough.

Iranian officials have warned that a move to reimpose sanctions would have consequences. Gharibabadi said earlier this week that it could force Tehran to withdraw from key non-proliferation agreements.

In a letter to UN Secretary-General António Guterres, Araghchi accused the E3 of hypocrisy, saying they failed to uphold their obligations under the 2015 deal while supporting Israel’s recent strikes on Iran.

In last month's conflict, Iran responded to Israeli and US strikes with missile attacks, including a strike on a US base in Qatar, which Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian insisted was not directed at the Qatari state.

In an interview with Al Jazeera that aired on Wednesday, Pezeshkian said Iran is prepared for another war and accused Israel of attempting to assassinate him during a June 15 meeting of Iran's national security council in Tehran.

Pezeshkian reiterated that Iran’s nuclear program will continue within the framework of international law and insisted the country has no intention of pursuing nuclear weapons.

“Our nuclear capabilities are in the minds of our scientists,” he said, emphasizing Iran’s position that future negotiations must be rooted in mutual respect, not threats.

The aftermath of war According to Iran's official judicial news agency Mizan, at least 13 Iranian nuclear scientists were killed during the June Israel-Iran war.

The extent of the damage to Iran's nuclear sites from the war has not been publicly revealed but a spokesman for Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization said Thursday the country’s nuclear industry would recover.

“Our nuclear industry is deeply rooted. What has roots cannot be harmed by attack or pressure — it will grow back and thrive again,” state TV quoted Behrouz Kamalvandi as saying.

The UN nuclear watchdog — the International Atomic Energy Agency, or IAEA — reported in May that Iran’s stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% had grown to over 400 kilograms (882 pounds). That material, just below weapons-grade level, remains a central concern for the West.

After the June war, Iran suspended cooperation with the IAEA, following legislation signed by Pezeshkian.

The road ahead remains uncertain. While European officials say they want to avoid further conflict and are open to a negotiated solution, they have warned that time is running out.