Habib Jemli, Tunisia’s PM-Designate… A Technocrat With Two Priorities

Habib Jemli, Tunisia’s PM-Designate… A Technocrat With Two Priorities
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Habib Jemli, Tunisia’s PM-Designate… A Technocrat With Two Priorities

Habib Jemli, Tunisia’s PM-Designate… A Technocrat With Two Priorities

The appointment of Habib Jemli to form the new government has stirred controversy in Tunisia. Much of this controversy stems from the question of the extent of the independence of the technocrat specialized in agriculture and social solidarity economy from the Ennahda Movement and the Islamic movement in general.

The controversy took on new dimensions when Ziad al-Ahdari, the Secretary-General of Ennahda that has its most prominent representative in the government since 2015, announced his resignation from the party in protest. Adhari said it was a wrong choice because Jemli is “close to the Islamists” and “lacks the caliber needed to meet the global economic and political challenges currently facing Tunisia.”

The decision taken by President Kais Saied to appoint him last month confused most politicians, journalists, and syndicalists. They and the cadres of the Ennahda Movement, which nominated him, did not know who he was. The brief cable, released in conjunction with his appointment, summarizing his career in politics and economics, did not help. It deepened the skepticism surrounding his appointment, especially because he was appointed at the last minute instead of Almunji Marzouk, the former Minister of Industry and Energy.

After a long career in which he played various technocratic roles in the public and private sector, Habib Jemli, who hails from a poor village in the province of Kairouan, was appointed an assistant to the Minister of Agriculture in the two coalition governments between Ennahda and two secular parties between 2011 and 2014. According to the businessmen and administrators who worked with him at the time, he was effectively the “actual minister”, according to the Secretary-General of the Syndicate of Farmers in Kairouan, who claims Mohmed Ben Salem was busy with partisan responsibilities at Ennahda. Ben Salem himself praised Jemli’s repose, humility, decency, and work-ethic, claiming that Jemli used to work more than 14 hours a day. Several prominent Tunisian leaders, from within and without Ennahda, stressed Jemli’s independence. Among them are Rached Ghannouchi, leader of Ennahda, and Abdel-Karim al-Harouni, head of the party’s advisory council, who claim that while Jemli is “a friend of the movement”, he is not a member in any way, shape, or form.    
          
On the other hand, Jemli has been accused of lacking a comprehensive economic vision by his detractors, who claim that he is too specialized in agriculture. Hassan al-Zarkooni, an expert in communications and polling, claims the prime minister-designate “is not a prominent national figure among the network of developed relations with economic and political actors and journalists in Tunis and internationally.” Zarkouni believes that “this lack will deprive Tunisia of the security provided by its major economic partners, including Paris, the EU, World Bank, IMF, and large Arab, African, and European investment banks.” 

Cooperatives and Mutual Societies

Habib Jemli is considered the engineer behind the establishment of cooperatives and mutual societies after taking over the position of Deputy Minister of Agriculture in 2012 and 2013. According to al-Mawladi Ramadani, the Secretary-General of the Union of Farmers in Kairouan governorate, this plan contributed to assembling farmers and increasing their productivity and revenues and their marketing opportunities. Jemli worked on establishing a new method of running the Ministry of Agriculture using “an attitude with positive implications recognized by a substantial number of competent workers in committees affiliated with the Ministry, in addition to many people who deal with it.” He also laid the foundations for an action plan and comprehensive strategy to develop the Tunisian economy and enable it to play an advanced role in developing the national economy and overcoming the challenges facing the country, the most important of which being food security and the increasing levels of poverty in the Tunisian countryside and marginalized areas exceeding a million and a half people.

Relationship with Unions and the Left

Despite all of this, Jemli did not convince many of the union leaders and leftist parties, including leader of the Tunisian Communist Workers’ Party Hamma Hamami, Secretary-General of the Tunisian General Labour Union Noureddine Taboubi, and President of the Tunisian Union of IndustrySamir Majoul.

However, the testimonies of the figures that he received have all agreed on his ability to listen carefully to his interlocutors, and to welcome, register, and follow up on their suggestions, in addition to developing the government program that the Ennahda Movement has proposed. The latter, according to the former Secretary-General of the Tunisian General Labour Union, Hassan Abbasi, and lawyer and journalist Salah Eddin Joshi, suggested that he be appointed considering that they won first place.

Therefore, the question now is how capable is Jemli to succeed in his journey after deciding to expand the consultations with the traditional leaderships of unions and parties and with his openness to all political currents, and his promise to give priority to development and independence from parties. It is worth noting that the constitution allows for two full months to announce his government formation, until this coming January 14, which happens to be the anniversary of the revolution and the Arab uprisings.



What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
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What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo

Austria's energy company OMV was informed by Gazprom that the Russian gas producer would halt deliveries of natural gas via Ukraine to OMV from 0500 GMT on Nov. 16 following OMV winning an arbitration case. Supplies of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine may completely stop from Jan. 1 2025 after the current five-year deal expires as Kyiv has refused to negotiate the new terms of the transit with Moscow during the war.
Here is what happens if Russian gas transit via Ukraine is completely turned off and who will be affected most, according to Reuters.
HOW BIG ARE THE VOLUMES?
Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine are relatively small. Russia shipped about 15 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas via Ukraine in 2023 - only 8% of peak Russian gas flows to Europe via various routes in 2018-2019.
Russia spent half a century building its European gas market share, which at its peak stood at 35%.
Moscow lost its share to rivals such as Norway, the United States and Qatar since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, prompting the EU to cut its dependence on Russian gas.
EU gas prices rallied in 2022 to record highs after the loss of Russian supplies. The rally won't be repeated given modest volumes and a small number of customers for the remaining volumes, according to EU officials and traders.
UKRAINIAN ROUTE
The Soviet-era Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline brings gas from Siberia via the town of Sudzha - now under control of Ukrainian military forces - in Russia's Kursk region. It then flows through Ukraine to Slovakia.
In Slovakia, the gas pipeline splits into branches going to the Czech Republic and Austria.
Austria still receives most of its gas via Ukraine, while Russia accounts for around two-thirds of Hungary's gas imports.
Slovakia takes around 3 bcm from energy giant Gazprom per year, also about two-thirds of its needs.
Czech Republic almost completely cut gas imports from the east last year, but has started taking gas from Russia in 2024.
Most other Russian gas routes to Europe are shut including Yamal-Europe via Belarus and Nord Stream under the Baltic.
The only other operational Russian gas pipeline route to Europe is the Blue Stream and TurkStream to Türkiye under the Black Sea. Türkiye sends some Russian gas volumes onward to Europe including to Hungary.
WHY DOES THE UKRAINIAN ROUTE STILL WORK?
While remaining Russian gas transit volumes are small, the issue remains a dilemma for the EU. Many EU members such as France and Germany have said they would not buy Russian gas anymore but the stance of Slovakia, Hungary and Austria, which have closer ties to Moscow, challenges the EU common approach.
The countries, who still receive Russian gas, argue it is the most economic fuel and also blame neighboring EU countries for imposing high transit fees for alternative supplies.
Ukraine still earns $0.8-$1 billion in transit fees from Russian gas transit. Russia earns over $3 billion on sales via Ukraine based on an average gas price of $200 per 1,000 cubic meters, according to Reuters calculations.
Russia's gas pipeline export monopoly Gazprom plunged to a net loss of $7 billion in 2023, its first annual loss since 1999, because of the loss EU's gas markets.
Russia has said it would be ready to extend the transit deal but Kyiv has repeatedly said it won't do it.
Another option is for Gazprom to supply some of the gas via another route, for example via TurkStream, Bulgaria, Serbia or Hungary. However, capacity via these routes is limited.
The EU and Ukraine have also asked Azerbaijan to facilitate discussions with Russia regarding the gas transit deal, an Azeri presidential advisor told Reuters, who declined to give further details.