2019 Is a Year the Sudanese Will Never Forget

The Sudanese Military Council and the Forces for Freedom and Change sign the political agreement that paved the way for the formation of the transitional government in Khartoum last August (Reuters)
The Sudanese Military Council and the Forces for Freedom and Change sign the political agreement that paved the way for the formation of the transitional government in Khartoum last August (Reuters)
TT

2019 Is a Year the Sudanese Will Never Forget

The Sudanese Military Council and the Forces for Freedom and Change sign the political agreement that paved the way for the formation of the transitional government in Khartoum last August (Reuters)
The Sudanese Military Council and the Forces for Freedom and Change sign the political agreement that paved the way for the formation of the transitional government in Khartoum last August (Reuters)

The Sudanese will not forget 2019 and their revolution, the revolution that brought down the most brutal dictatorship in the country’s history. They will forget not the bloodshed, the rapists, or the groans of the tortured. They will not forget the year with many days of hope, the year they weaved a “portrait of defiance” in the face of the regime’s brutality.

The Sudanese celebrated their revolution’s first anniversary on the 19th of December, the country’s third revolution after the October and March revolutions of 1964 and 1985. The revolution continues a year after it began and months after its victory on the 11th of April.

The revolution inherited arbitrary wars throughout the country and a flabby and corrupt state apparatus controlled by the regime’s Islamist cronies. The new government is fighting hard to find peace, retrieve the state from them, and instill an honest and efficient apparatus in its place.

The revolution’s story

After four months of uninterrupted peaceful protesting, the popular movement brought an end to Omar al-Bashir’s 30-year reign. The 6th of April, five days before Bashir was brought down, as the myth of the legendarily repressive state was shattered by the huge numbers who confronted the army in the capital.

The Sudanese Professionals Association

The Sudanese Professionals Association, an association of professional syndicates, adopted the movement’s demands and called for a protest in Khartoum, which would head to the palace and ask the president to resign on December 25th; they were met with gunfire and tear gas at the hand of the security forces. Protests continued, and on the 1st of January last year, the “Declaration of Freedom and Change” was born and adopted by most of the country’s opposition parties and civil society organizations. Thus the Forces of Freedom and Change alliance was formed.

Sit-in facing Army Command

By the end of March 2019, the regime had begun to crumble under the weight of the movement, and Bashir appeared shaken in the speeches he delivered to his supporters.

Social media played a pivotal role in documenting the killing of peaceful demonstrators, exposing the major transgressions perpetrated by the regime's security apparatus to the world.

“Forces for the Declaration of Freedom and Change” announced that a march to the General Command of the Sudanese Army would take place on April 6, the anniversary of the 1986 uprising against President Jaafar Nimeiri. As the sun set that day, millions of people surrounded the army leadership, and the alliance declared that the sit-in would persist until the president stepped down. The security services and the Islamists’ militias tried to break the sit-in by force, but they failed after attempts.

Tragedy at the sit-in

When the army announced that Bashir would be removed on April 11th to be replaced by a military council led by its former Lieutenant General, Awad Ibn Auf with Lieutenant-General Kamal Abdel Maarouf as his deputy. Both men had been members security committee set up by Bashir to quell the protests, and a massive sit-in was held in response immediately. Under the weight of its pressure, Ibn Auf resigned and the military council was dissolved, and he announced the formation of a new council headed by Lieutenant General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the Inspector General of the Army at the time, and the current Transitional Council Chairman. Tragedy in struck in a sit-in on June 3 third, the security forces committed a massacre next to the army leadership base, killing dozens wounding hundreds, ending the Forces of Change's relationship with the military. In response, what is known as the giant June 30 processions, were held, shifting the balance of power in the favor of revolutionary forces.

African mediation and the constitutional document

Regional mediation, led by Ethiopia and the African Union, supported by the international community, succeeded in compelling them to sign a sharing agreement on August 17th after holding marathon negotiations and putting intense pressure on the junta and revolutionary forces,



Iran Holds Military Drills as it Faces Rising Economic Pressures and Trump's Return

A handout picture provided by the Iranian Army media office on October 4, 2023 shows locally-made drones during a military drill at an undisclosed location in Iran. (Photo by Iranian Army office / AFP)
A handout picture provided by the Iranian Army media office on October 4, 2023 shows locally-made drones during a military drill at an undisclosed location in Iran. (Photo by Iranian Army office / AFP)
TT

Iran Holds Military Drills as it Faces Rising Economic Pressures and Trump's Return

A handout picture provided by the Iranian Army media office on October 4, 2023 shows locally-made drones during a military drill at an undisclosed location in Iran. (Photo by Iranian Army office / AFP)
A handout picture provided by the Iranian Army media office on October 4, 2023 shows locally-made drones during a military drill at an undisclosed location in Iran. (Photo by Iranian Army office / AFP)

Iran is reeling from a cratering economy and stinging military setbacks across its sphere of influence in the Middle East. Its bad times are likely to get worse once President-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House with his policy of “maximum pressure” on Iran.

Facing difficulties at home and abroad, Iran last week began an unusual two-month-long military drill. It includes testing air defenses near a key nuclear facility and preparing for exercises in waterways vital to the global oil trade.

The military flexing seems aimed at projecting strength, but doubts about its power are high after the past year's setbacks.

The December overthrow of Syrian President Bashar Assad, who Iran supported for years with money and troops, was a major blow to its self-described “Axis of Resistance” across the region. The “axis” had already been hollowed out by Israel’s punishing offensives last year against two militant groups backed by Iran – Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel also attacked Iran directly on two occasions.

According to The AP, an Iranian Revolutionary Guard general based in Syria offered a blunt assessment this week. “I do not see it as a matter of pride that we lost Syria,” Gen. Behrouz Esbati said, according to an audio recording of a speech he gave that was leaked to the media. “We lost. We badly lost. We blew it.”

At home, Iran’s economy is in tatters.

The US and its allies have maintained stiff sanctions to deter it from developing nuclear weapons — and Iran's recent efforts to get them lifted through diplomacy have fallen flat. Pollution chokes the skies in the capital, Tehran, as power plants burn dirty fuel in their struggle to avoid outages during winter. And families are struggling to make ends meet as the Iranian currency, the rial, falls to record lows against the US dollar.

As these burdens rise, so does the likelihood of political protests, which have ignited nationwide in recent years over women's rights and the weak economy.

How Trump chooses to engage with Iran remains to be seen. But on Tuesday he left open the possibility of the US conducting preemptive airstrikes on nuclear sites where Iran is closer than ever to enriching uranium to weapons-grade levels.

“It’s a military strategy,” Trump told journalists at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida during a wide-ranging news conference. “I’m not answering questions on military strategy.”

Iran insists its nuclear program is peaceful, yet officials there increasingly suggest Tehran could pursue an atomic bomb.

Europe's view of Iran hardens. It's not just Trump or Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a longtime foe of Tehran, that paint Iran's nuclear program as a major threat. French President Emmanuel Macron, speaking Monday to French ambassadors in Paris, described Iran as “the main strategic and security challenge for France, the Europeans, the entire region and well beyond.”

“The acceleration of its nuclear program is bringing us very close to the breaking point,” Macron said. “Its ballistic program threatens European soil and our interests."

While Europe had previously been seen as more conciliatory toward Iran, its attitude has hardened. That's likely because of what Macron described as Tehran's “assertive and fully identified military support” of Russia since it's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

France, as well as Germany and the United Kingdom, had been part of Iran's 2015 nuclear deal with world powers. Under that deal, Iran limited its enrichment of uranium and drastically reduced its stockpile in exchange for the lifting of crushing, United Nations-backed economic sanctions. Trump unilaterally withdrew America from the accord in 2018, and with those UN sanctions lifted, it provided cover for China's to purchase oil from Iran.

But now France, Germany and the United Kingdom call Tehran's advances in its atomic program a ”nuclear escalation" that needs to be addressed. That raises the possibility of Western nations pushing for what's called a “snapback” of those UN sanctions on Iran, which could be catastrophic for the Iranian economy. That “snapback” power expires in October.

On Wednesday, Iran released a visiting Italian journalist, Cecilia Sala, after detaining her for three weeks — even though she had received the government's approval to report from there.

Sala's arrest came days after Italian authorities arrested an Iranian engineer accused by the US of supplying drone technology used in a January 2024 attack on a US outpost in Jordan that killed three American troops. The engineer remains in Italian custody.

- Iran holds military drills as worries grow

The length of the military drills started by Iran's armed forces and its paramilitary Revolutionary Guard may be unusual, but their intended message to the US and Israel — and to its domestic audience — is not. Iran is trying to show itself as capable of defending against any possible attack.

On Tuesday, Iran held air-defense drills around its underground nuclear enrichment facility in the city of Natanz. It claimed it could intercept a so-called “bunker buster” bomb designed to destroy such sites.

However, the drill did not involve any of its four advanced S-300 Russian air defense systems, which Israel targeted in its strikes on Iran. At least two are believed to have been damaged, and Israeli officials claim all have been taken out.

“Some of the US and Israeli reservations about using force to address Iran’s nuclear program have dissipated,” wrote Kenneth Katzman, a longtime Iran analyst for the US government who is now at the New York-based Soufan Center. “It appears likely that, at the very least, the Trump administration would not assertively dissuade Israel from striking Iranian facilities, even if the United States might decline to join the assault.”

There are other ways Iran could respond. This weekend, naval forces plan exercises in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. Iran for years has threatened to close the strait — a narrow lane through which a fifth of global oil supplies are transported — and it has targeted oil tankers and other ships in those waters since 2019.

“Harassment and seizures are likely to remain the main tools of Iranian counteraction,” the private maritime security firm Ambrey warned Thursday.

Its allies may not be much help, though. The tempo of attacks on shipping lanes by Yemen's Houthis, long armed by Iran, have slowed. And Iran has growing reservations about the reliability of Russia.

In the recording of the speech by the Iranian general, Esbati, he alleges that Russia “turned off all radars” in Syria to allow an Israeli airstrike that hit a Guard intelligence center.

Esbati also said Iranian missiles “don't have so much of an impact” and that the US would retaliate against any attack targeting its bases in the region.

“For the time being and in this situation, dragging the region into a military operation does not agree (with the) interest of the resistance,” he says.