Exclusive - What Next for Syria after Soleimani’s Killing?

Qassem Soleimani, left, with Syrian regime leader Bashar Assad, center, and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. (AFP)
Qassem Soleimani, left, with Syrian regime leader Bashar Assad, center, and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. (AFP)
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Exclusive - What Next for Syria after Soleimani’s Killing?

Qassem Soleimani, left, with Syrian regime leader Bashar Assad, center, and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. (AFP)
Qassem Soleimani, left, with Syrian regime leader Bashar Assad, center, and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. (AFP)

The assassination of Iran’s Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani will leave an impact in Syria, where four armies are involved in the country’s nine-year conflict. Syria has a special personal and geopolitical interest for Iran where Soleimani personally oversaw the expansion of Tehran’s influence over the past two decades, most significantly with the eruption of its conflict in 2011.

Iran views Syria as the land link between Iraq and Lebanon. It also represents a second front against Israel after Lebanon. It also borders Jordan and Turkey and provides vital access to the Mediterranean under Russian cover.

Iran exerts its influence in Syria through its various organizations and militias. Four other militaries are present there: The American forces leading the anti-ISIS coalition. They are mainly deployed east of the Euphrates River near Arab groups recruited by Tehran and deployed at the Alboukamal base in the Deir Ezzour countryside. The other military is the Turkish one positioned in northern Syria. Israel’s shadow looms over Syria through its various strikes against Damascus and perceived Iranian and Hezbollah threats.

The most significant military presence is Russia’s. It has set up three long-term military bases in Latakia, Tartus and al-Qamishli and deployed various advanced missile systems.

Revenge

Iran has been mulling avenging Soleimani since his assassination in a US air strike near Baghdad on Friday. It has vowed revenge against American interests and Syria may be the arena where this plays out. However, it must take into consideration military factors and various players on the ground:

- East of the Euphrates: This seems like the ideal location because of the American troop deployment near Iranian groups. Both sides have since taken precautions in anticipation of any attack. Alboukamal may be another option. It is where Soleimani sought to open a land route that starts in Tehran, passes through Baghdad and Damascus and ends in Beirut. This route was severed when the Americans took over the al-Tanf base and cut the main highway between the Iraqi and Syrian capitals. Alboukamal seems more vulnerable to Iran’s revenge now that the “architect of the alternate route” has been taken out of the picture.

- Aleppo: Soleimani had visited the neighborhoods of eastern Aleppo several times after the regime recaptured the area in December. He also visited western Aleppo leading to Idlib. Pro-Iran groups did not get involved in recent battles in southeastern Idlib, vast areas of which were seized by Damascus. There is a belief that Damascus may seek to speed up efforts to capture the entire province as the world continues to reel from the fallout of Soleimani’s killing.

This move, however, depends on Wednesday’s summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The two leaders will discuss a possible truce in Idlib. Tehran may hesitate in pursuing its revenge in Idlib because it may affect understandings it had reached with Russia and Turkey during their Astana talks.

- Golan Heights: Southern Syria came into focus after Iran and Hezbollah became involved in the Syrian conflict in 2013 where they worked to set up cells and groupings. This presence came under pressure after Russia entered the fray in 2015. Israel began to carry out strikes against Iranian and Hezbollah targets with implicit Russian coordination. Moscow had also sponsored an agreement that called for the withdrawal of all non-Syrian forces, meaning Iranian ones, from the south and Golan in exchange for the return of regime forces to that area.

Soleimani is believed to have encouraged these groups to use to the Golan Heights to target Israel. The last such attack took place in November when Tel Aviv assassinated prominent Islamic Jihad officials in Gaza and Damascus. Tehran also tested drones that flew from central Syria to its south. The Israeli retaliation targeted Iranian and Syrian positions near Damascus and beyond.

Shadow state

In mid-2015, Soleimani visited Moscow where played a significant role in persuading Putin in directly intervening militarily in Syria to support regime forces, who at the time were only in control of ten percent of the country. Russia and Iran then entered into an uneasy “marriage of interests” where Russia deploys its air power and Iran its non-Iranian militias, overseen by its Revolutionary Guards Corps, to fight for the regime.

This balance met Putin’s demand to avoid a “second Afghanistan” in Syria and led to victories at a minimal human and material cost. It also met Iran’s ambitions in saving its strategic ally in Damascus and allowed it to infiltrate Syria’s social fabric. Russia and Iran reaped from the regime significant agreements and economic interests. Moscow signed 49-year deals to set up military bases. It also reaped oil, gas and phosphate contracts. Tehran and Damascus also signed economic, trade and military deals.

The difference between Russia and Iran was vast, however. Moscow focused on state institutions, such as the military and government. Iran, meanwhile, focused on setting up a “shadow state” through “social” and “charitable” organizations. Russia was present in the light and cities, while Iran spread in the shadows and countryside.

Soleimani was the architect of this shadow state in Syria and his absence will be felt. His assassination will bring Iran’s role in Syria into the spotlight related to whether it can seek its revenge there or highlight its presence in the war-torn country. Soleimani’s absence “liberates” decision-makers in Damascus from the past ten years. The same applies to Putin should he wish to limit Tehran’s role. The assassination weakens the role of Iran’s cells and provides an opportunity to boost state institutions.

Soleimani’s elimination may pave the way for Russia to restore Syrian-Iranian relations to the way they were away from the personal aspects. It may also pave the way for allowing Arab and western countries to rebuild Syria, support the return of refugees and push non-state forces and militias to withdraw.



As Trump Seeks to Be a Peacemaker, Netanyahu Leaves Washington without Breakthrough on Gaza Deal

 Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, left, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, right, arrive for a meeting at the Pentagon, Wednesday, July 9, 2025, in Washington. (AP)
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, left, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, right, arrive for a meeting at the Pentagon, Wednesday, July 9, 2025, in Washington. (AP)
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As Trump Seeks to Be a Peacemaker, Netanyahu Leaves Washington without Breakthrough on Gaza Deal

 Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, left, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, right, arrive for a meeting at the Pentagon, Wednesday, July 9, 2025, in Washington. (AP)
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, left, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, right, arrive for a meeting at the Pentagon, Wednesday, July 9, 2025, in Washington. (AP)

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s trip to Washington this week netted President Donald Trump another nomination for the Nobel Peace Prize he covets, but the ceasefire the US leader sought for the war in Gaza didn't emerge.

Despite Trump throwing his weight behind a push for a 60-day truce between Israel and Hamas, no breakthrough was announced during Netanyahu's visit, a disappointment for a president who wants to be known as a peacemaker and has hinged his reputation on being a dealmaker.

“He prides himself or being able to make deals, so this is another test case,” said Rachel Brandenburg, the Israel Policy Forum's Washington managing director and senior fellow.

Trump’s ability to strike a ceasefire deal in the 21-month war will reveal the boundaries of his influence with Netanyahu, especially after their recent joint strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities that both leaders touted at the White House this week.

Beyond the back-to-back meetings Trump and Netanyahu had at the White House this week, there was little public evidence of progress at a time when the Republican US president is pushing to end the fighting.

‘Closer than we’ve been,’ but challenges remain

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Thursday that when it comes to a ceasefire in Gaza, “we’re closer than we’ve been in quite a while and we’re hopeful, but we also recognize there’s still some challenges in the way.”

Rubio, who spoke to reporters while traveling in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, also said that Trump “wants to see a ceasefire and we’ve invested a lot of time and energy.”

Beyond ending the bloodshed, ending the war in Gaza would give Trump more leeway to strike some of the broader agreements he seeks in the Middle East, such as expanding the Abraham Accords that started in his first term and normalizing relations with Syria’s new government.

“He wants to be the one who gets hostages home and see the war in Gaza end so he can move on to some of these bigger deals,” Brandenburg said.

Even if a truce is reached, Netanyahu has promised fighting will continue if necessary until Hamas is destroyed. The group, meanwhile, has conditioned the release of the remaining hostages on Israel's withdrawal from Gaza, a stipulation Israel has been unwilling to accept.

Trump-Netanyahu relationship sees a rebound

It’s unclear how much pressure Trump put on Netanyahu in their private talks this week. But the two leaders came into the visit seeming more aligned than ever — at least for now — fresh off the president having twice come to the Israeli leader’s assistance.

Trump made the risky move to join Israel’s attacks on Iran last month, delivering pivotal US firepower while alarming world leaders and some of Trump’s “America first” supporters. Trump also inserted himself into Israel’s domestic affairs, calling for Netanyahu’s yearslong corruption trial to be thrown out.

That’s a marked turnaround in their relationship, which had appeared somewhat strained in recent years.

Trump shocked some of his fellow Republicans and staunch supporters of Israel by publicly criticizing Netanyahu not long after Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, setting off the conflict.

He said that Netanyahu “was not prepared” for the attack from Hamas and that Netanyahu had “let us down” just before the US killed top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani in 2020.

Even during his last visit to the White House earlier this year, Netanyahu seemed caught off guard when Trump announced the US would hold talks with Iran over its nuclear deal rather than embrace Netanyahu’s push for military pressure.

With their military objectives aligning for a time on Iran, the Israeli leader has worked to foster a warmer relationship.

In a video he released after the US strikes, Netanyahu spoke — in English instead of Hebrew — of the “unshakeable alliance” between their countries while repeatedly praising Trump.

“His leadership today has created a pivot of history that can help lead the Middle East and beyond to a future of prosperity and peace,” Netanyahu said.

Netanyahu tries the charm offensive on Trump

In his visit to Washington this week, the Israeli leader also showed he knows how to praise the president in a way that matters greatly to him when he unveiled a letter in front of reporters and cameras to announce he had nominated him for a Nobel Peace Prize.

Those gestures, though, may only carry him so far as Trump pushes for a deal that Netanyahu may not be able to accept.

“I think if Netanyahu stands in the way too much for too long of the sort of loftier objectives Trump has set out for himself,” Brandenburg said, “Netanyahu will be cast aside as more of a problem than an asset.”

Netanyahu, like many Israelis, believes Trump is the greatest friend they have ever had in the White House and is deeply grateful for the US strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites last month.

But the Israeli leader is also under mounting public pressure to end the war as hostages languish in captivity and more Israeli soldiers are killed in guerrilla-style attacks.

Israel’s military success against Iran has given him some political capital, but if he ends the war while leaving Hamas intact, he will have broken his repeated promise of “total victory.”

His far-right coalition partners have threatened to bolt if he does that, sparking early elections that could end his nearly unbroken 16 years in power and leave him more vulnerable to long-standing corruption charges.

That may prove too heavy a price for delivering the kind of lasting ceasefire sought by Trump and demanded by Hamas. Instead, Netanyahu, who is seen as a masterful politician by friends and foes alike, is expected to thread the needle.

In a video statement on Thursday, Netanyahu said that he would agree to a “temporary” 60-day ceasefire in return for the release of half the hostages remaining in Gaza, many of whom are believed dead, and that he would begin negotiations on ending the war.

But he conditioned any lasting ceasefire on Hamas giving up its arms – something the fighters have refused to do as long as Israel occupies parts of Gaza.

If Hamas can be disarmed through negotiations, “so much the better,” Netanyahu said. “If it is not achieved through negotiations in 60 days, we will achieve it in other ways — by using force.”