After US Strikes Against Qaeda's Rimi, Will the Organization's Presence End in Yemen?

US Air Force officer passes in front of a US Reaper drone (File photo: Reuters)
US Air Force officer passes in front of a US Reaper drone (File photo: Reuters)
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After US Strikes Against Qaeda's Rimi, Will the Organization's Presence End in Yemen?

US Air Force officer passes in front of a US Reaper drone (File photo: Reuters)
US Air Force officer passes in front of a US Reaper drone (File photo: Reuters)

US President Donald Trump retweeted journalists and researchers reporting the killing of Qaeda leader in Yemen Qassim al-Rimi, 41, while the US administration has not yet confirmed his death.

Analysts said DNA tests are ongoing to avoid falling into the same mistake when Rimi was previously falsely announced dead for at least five times.

The US President is eager to know the final result to announce Rimi’s death, as he announced that of ISIS leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, last October, and the killing of Iranian commander of al-Quds Force, Qassem Soleimani, earlier this year.

Asharq Al-Awsat spoke with Maerib governor, Sultan al-Arada, who reported that the past ten days witnessed two strikes in two different locations in the governorate, and the security authorities could not identify the targets inside the two houses, pointing out that the region is witnessing numerous Houthi strikes which made it more difficult for security services to determine the drone strikes.

Saudi Arabia was the most prominent country fighting Qaeda within its territories until it expelled it completely. Riyadh was also the first to include Rimi on a terrorist wanted list in 2009, the year in which Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula was established.

Disclosed documents revealed that Osama bin Laden, Qaeda’s leader, found a haven in Yemen especially after they targeted the destroyer, USS Cole.

The US added Rimi to the "most wanted terrorists" in May 2010, and five years later he assumed the leadership of the organization, succeeding Nasser al-Wuhayshi, who was also killed in a US drone strike in June.

Washington doubled the reward on giving information about Rimi from five million to ten million dollars.

The US administration accuses him of training terrorists in Qaeda camp in Afghanistan in the 1990s. He then returned to Yemen, became a military commander, and was sentenced to five years in prison in 2005 for plotting to assassinate the US ambassador to Yemen.

He later escaped, and in 2008, he was linked to the attack on the US embassy in Sanaa that killed 10 Yemeni guards, four civilians, and six terrorists.

Yemeni researcher specializing in tribal and conflict affairs, Nadwa Al-Dossary, believes Rimi's death is a major blow to Qaeda, saying the terrorist organization has weakened a lot since the death of its most important leader in Yemen.

Dossary believes there is no point in talking about terminating Qaeda before the war in Yemen is over. She said the organization tried to take advantage of the war's conditions in Yemen and succeeded in that at first in some cities like Hadramout, Aden, and Taiz.

Houthis’ control over those was the biggest factor in the expansion of Qaeda to them. After the legitimate government regained control over the region, the group’s role diminished significantly.

Qaeda in Yemen thrives on injustice and chaos, explains Dossary, however, it is still weak in the country and not welcomed among the community and the tribes.

But the Houthis' military expansion and their continuous crimes and adoption of a sectarian agenda may contribute to creating a sectarian conflict in Yemen, which would constitute a significant support factor for Qaeda and terrorist groups in general.

Political researcher al-Baraa Shaiban believes that Qaeda will not fundamentally change, because the organization was preparing for such an event and will not end with the death of its leader.

Shaiban goes further than that and says that top officials of the organization want a figure that links them to their Afghanistan era, the period of the group’s rise.

Qaeda tried to take advantage of the security and political vacuum created by the war in Yemen, but it is clear that the organization’s operations are limited until they manage to reach the top official, explained Shaiban.

The current US administration wants to confirm that it can target Qaeda and major leaders of the organization, especially as the elections approach, noted Shaiban.

Asked by Asharq Al-Awsat over the matter, the Yemeni researcher said he believes Qaeda will not be terminated because it is linked to law enforcement institutions such as judicial intelligence services and a local authority, which are weak in Yemen.

Shaiban argues that if the state regains its full authority, it will reduce the operations of the organization in a manner that will be noticeable, adding there are external factors that are not controlled by the Yemeni government or the Yemeni decision-maker, such as the US presence in the region.



Half of Yemen’s Population Face Mounting Risks from Climate Change

Al-Garehi Al-Gharbi camp in the Abs district of north-west Yemen. (Norwegian Refugee Council)
Al-Garehi Al-Gharbi camp in the Abs district of north-west Yemen. (Norwegian Refugee Council)
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Half of Yemen’s Population Face Mounting Risks from Climate Change

Al-Garehi Al-Gharbi camp in the Abs district of north-west Yemen. (Norwegian Refugee Council)
Al-Garehi Al-Gharbi camp in the Abs district of north-west Yemen. (Norwegian Refugee Council)

Already suffering from a prolonged conflict as a result of the Houthi coup against the legitimate authority, Yemen is facing mounting risks brought on by climate change, the World Bank warned on Thursday.
Many populations are facing threats from climate change, such as extreme heat, drought, and floods, the WB said in its newly released Yemen Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR).
Stephane Guimbert, World Bank Country Director for Egypt, Yemen and Djibouti said that Yemen is facing an unprecedented convergence of crises — conflict, climate change, and poverty.
He called for immediate and decisive action on climate resilience, a matter of survival for millions of Yemenis.
“By investing in water security, climate-smart agriculture, and renewable energy, Yemen can safeguard human capital, build resilience and lay the foundations for a path to sustainable recovery,” he said.
The WB report said half of Yemenis are already exposed to at least one climate hazard — extreme heat, drought, or flooding — with compounding effects on food insecurity and poverty.
These risks, it showed, are expected to intensify without immediate action and Yemen’s annual GDP could decline by an average of 3.9% by 2040 under pessimistic climate scenarios, largely due to decreased agricultural productivity and infrastructure damage.
Navigating Challenges
Despite these challenges, the CCDR identifies strategic opportunities to strengthen resilience, improve food and water security, and unlock sustainable growth, the WB report noted.
For example, it said, targeted investments in water storage and groundwater management, coupled with adaptive agriculture techniques could lead to productivity gains of up to 13.5% in crop production under optimistic climate scenarios for the period of 2041 to 2050.
The report also spoke about risks to the fisheries sector, considered as a critical source of livelihood for many Yemenis.
Its projections indicate a potential decline of up to 23% in fish stocks due to rising sea temperatures and altered marine ecosystems.

The WB report also said that climate change exacerbates existing health challenges in Yemen, leading to increased healthcare costs and strain on already fragile health systems.
“It is projected that climate-related health issues could cost the country over $5 billion in excess health costs by 2050,” it noted.
“Addressing these challenges requires integrating climate resilience into public health planning, with a focus on vulnerable groups such as women and children.”
Concerning infrastructure, the report said urban areas and critical infrastructure are especially vulnerable, and without adaptation measures, economic shocks will disproportionately affect already fragile communities.
As for the private sector, it has a critical role to play in addressing Yemen’s pressing development challenges, said Khawaja Aftab Ahmed, IFC’s Regional Director for the Middle East.
“Harnessing its potential through innovative financing mechanisms and guarantee instruments and creating a conducive investment climate can help mobilize the climate-focused funding the country urgently needs to build a greener and more resilient future,” he said.
The WB report also said that Yemen also has immense potential for renewable energy, which could serve as a key component of its climate response and recovery.
It showed that harnessing renewable energy resources not only offers a pathway to reduce reliance on fossil fuels but also enables the creation of a more resilient power infrastructure.
“This will be essential in supporting vital services such as healthcare, water supply, and food distribution, particularly in conflict-affected areas,” it said.
Global Coordination
The World Bank highlighted the significant commitments and coordination from the international community to support Yemen in coping with climate shocks and building broader resilience.
It said securing sustainable peace will be required to unlock the financing and take the action needed to build long-term resilience to climate change.
The CCDR then underscored the importance of flexible, risk-informed decision-making to adapt climate actions to Yemen's uncertain political landscape.
Under a “Peace and Prosperity” scenario, it said, a higher level of adaptation can be implemented, yielding greater economic and social benefits.
Yemeni Minister of Water and Environment, Tawfiq Al-Sharjabi, stressed the importance of integrating climate action into development strategies and adapting to climate fluctuations.
The minister was speaking at a special session to discuss the WB report on the sidelines of the 29th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP29) held in Baku, Azerbaijan.
He said the report represents a significant contribution for Yemen in addressing climate change and will facilitate access to various climate financing options amid the structural and technical fragility faced by institutions due to the war.
The report, Al-Sharjabi added, aligns closely with Yemen's urgent priorities, particularly in the areas of water and food security, enhancing livelihoods, and promoting area-based climate adaptation approaches.