Sadr’s Mixed Messages Expose Generational Rift Among Followers

University students gather during ongoing anti-government protests in Basra, Iraq February 2, 2020. REUTERS/Essam al-Sudani
University students gather during ongoing anti-government protests in Basra, Iraq February 2, 2020. REUTERS/Essam al-Sudani
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Sadr’s Mixed Messages Expose Generational Rift Among Followers

University students gather during ongoing anti-government protests in Basra, Iraq February 2, 2020. REUTERS/Essam al-Sudani
University students gather during ongoing anti-government protests in Basra, Iraq February 2, 2020. REUTERS/Essam al-Sudani

Iraq’s Shiite cleric Moqtada Sadr enjoys wide popularity among the Shiite poor, especially in the densely populated Sadr City near Baghdad.

He was one of the most prominent figures who played an essential role in rebuilding the political system after the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003.

Sadr’s political life kickstarted with fierce battles with American forces at the time.

Despite rarely making an appearance, Sadr, 46, almost communicates daily with his followers via Twitter.

In October 2019, the cleric successfully mobilized thousands of Sadrists to support ongoing anti-government protests at the time.

But late January 2020, Sadr ordered his followers to exit the protests only to change his mind a week later and say they should go back to supporting the demonstrations.

Sadr had backed the rallies early on, even though they called for the downfall of a cabinet and PM he had sponsored, and for early elections that may cost him seats in parliament, where he controls the largest bloc.

Mind-boggling politicking is par for the course when it comes to Sadr, said Renad Mansour of the London-based Chatham House think-tank.

"He's a guy who has multiple sides: an anthropologist who goes with the street, making him inconsistent over the years," said Mansour.

But this inconsistency has effected the youth following Sadr as they have become no longer sure of what to do. Many had defied Sadr’s orders when he asked them to leave the anti-government demonstrations.

Hamza, 26, expressed deep regret towards seeing some of his fellow Sadrists packing their tents and leaving the protest sites.

This has threatened a rift within the ranks of Sadrists.

Ali, 29, a local from Sadr City, had spent the past four months in a tent in Tahrir Square, but he confirmed that he could not blindly follow Sadr's tweets.

A source in the Sadrist movement says that “the risk of a split is always present.”

“In the end, this is a religious movement, not a democratic movement,” the source said.



Continued Israeli Incursions in South Lebanon: A Bid to Create New Realities on the Ground

Smoke rises due to Israeli raids on South Lebanon (Reuters) 
Smoke rises due to Israeli raids on South Lebanon (Reuters) 
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Continued Israeli Incursions in South Lebanon: A Bid to Create New Realities on the Ground

Smoke rises due to Israeli raids on South Lebanon (Reuters) 
Smoke rises due to Israeli raids on South Lebanon (Reuters) 

South Lebanon is witnessing an escalating series of military operations, marked by repeated Israeli ground incursions and extensive bulldozing along the border.

The latest incidents have unfolded in the Marjayoun district and around the Wadi Hunin area, where Israeli military vehicles advanced more than 800 meters into Lebanese territory. According to analysts, these moves signal an effort to entrench a security presence that reflects “an advanced strategy to impose a new status quo along the frontier.”

On Friday, Lebanon’s National News Agency (NNA) reported that Israeli army bulldozers, protected by tanks stationed nearby, crossed the boundary at Wadi Hunin and moved towards a landfill south of the town of Adaisseh. The forces sealed off a road and erected earthen barriers, prompting heightened alert from the Lebanese side.

Separately, an Israeli patrol breached the withdrawal line in the outskirts of Kfar Shouba - penetrating 400 meters into Lebanese territory - and fired shots at shepherds without causing injuries.

The incursions did not stop there. Residents of Blida also reported a fresh advance of over 800 meters. Meanwhile, Israeli troops detonated a civilian structure in the Ghassouna area east of Adaisseh, using incendiary and stun grenades that sowed panic among local families.

In parallel, Israeli aerial attacks have intensified. On Friday, an Israeli drone struck a car traveling on the Nmeiriyeh–Sharqiyyeh road in Nabatieh district, killing one person and injuring five others, Lebanon’s Health Ministry confirmed. The attack underscores the widening scope of targets, reaching deeper into southern Lebanon and extending beyond military sites to include civilian vehicles.

Another drone dropped a bomb on a small transport truck in the border town of Kfar Kila, causing material damage but no casualties. Such incidents have become a recurring pattern in the ongoing escalation.

Adding to the strain on civilians, an entire house in Kfar Kila was blown up after being rigged with explosives. In Meiss El Jabal, Israeli forces destroyed a newly renovated tile factory last week, as part of what Israeli spokesmen described as “special operations” targeting weapons depots and infrastructure allegedly tied to Hezbollah in locations including Labouneh and Jabal Balat.

Israeli army spokesperson Avichay Adraee stated on Wednesday that the operations were based on intelligence gathering and surveillance of “Hezbollah’s combat means and terrorist infrastructure.” He added that special units were working to dismantle these networks to prevent Hezbollah from reestablishing its positions along the border. Adraee also released nighttime video footage showing Israeli infantry operating deep inside southern Lebanon.

A Systematic Effort to Empty the Border

Military analyst Brigadier General Naji Malaeb described these incursions as “part of a systematic plan to reshape the situation on the border.” He told Asharq Al-Awsat that Israeli ground advances typically coincide with major diplomatic developments - whether a US envoy arriving in Beirut or Israeli delegations traveling to Washington.

“Every time there is a significant diplomatic event, we see coordinated maneuvers - airstrikes, artillery shelling, or limited ground incursions targeting civilian or logistical sites,” Malaeb noted.

He argued that Israel’s consistent pattern of targeting rebuilt homes and small businesses reveals a clear message: preventing displaced residents from returning. “Whenever villagers attempt to repair their homes or revive their livelihoods, the response is immediate,” he said, citing a recent case in Aitaroun where Israeli troops demolished a factory that had been reconstructed inside a residence.

“This is no longer just a violation of Lebanese sovereignty or UN Resolution 1701,” Malaeb concluded. “It has evolved into a deliberate strategy to depopulate the border strip and impose new facts on the ground, creating, in effect, a buffer zone through indirect means.”