IMF: Oil Price Decline Represents Key Challenge to GCC Countries

Oil demand would peak by around 2040, says IMF report. Reuters
Oil demand would peak by around 2040, says IMF report. Reuters
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IMF: Oil Price Decline Represents Key Challenge to GCC Countries

Oil demand would peak by around 2040, says IMF report. Reuters
Oil demand would peak by around 2040, says IMF report. Reuters

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said analysis of past oil market developments revealed “a strong and sustained declining trend in the global oil demand, after accounting for income and population growth.”

Oil demand “would peak by around 2040 in our benchmark projection or much sooner in scenarios of a stronger regulatory push for environmental protection and faster improvements in energy efficiency.”

According to the IMF staff study, at the current fiscal stance, fiscal sustainability will require significant consolidation in the coming years.

Growth of global demand for natural gas is also expected to slow, the Fund said, “although it is expected to remain positive in the coming decades.”

The report said the oil market has experienced a significant turnaround in recent years due to technological advancements as well as climate change concerns. This represents a challenge to the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) that accounts for over one-fifth of global oil supply.

Long-term fiscal health requires that average annual non-oil primary deficits decline from a current level of 44 percent of non-oil GDP to less than 10 percent by 2060.

“Managing the long-term fiscal transition will require wide-ranging reforms and a difficult inter-generational choice. Continued economic diversification will be important but would not suffice on its own. Countries will also need to step up their efforts to raise non-oil fiscal revenue, reduce government expenditure, and prioritize financial saving when economic returns on additional public investment are low," the IMF added.

The sudden and unexpected oil price decline of more than 50 percent during 2014-15 was among the largest in the past century, according to the report. “It amounted to a transfer of nearly USD6.5 trillion from oil-exporting to oil-importing countries, in the form of cumulative oil revenue decline, between 2014 and 2018. Many oil-exporting countries are still adjusting to the effects of this oil price decline.”

The 2014 oil price slump led to large fiscal deficits but has also served as a catalyst for significant reforms in GCC countries, according to the report.

Global oil demand will peak around 2041 at about 115 million barrels a day and gradually decline thereafter as the demand-reducing effects of improvements in energy efficiency and increased substitution away from oil begin to dominate the weakened positive impact of rising incomes and population.



Trump Says Steep Copper Tariffs in Store as He Broadens His Trade War

A worker makes copper trays inside a workshop in Kolkata, India, October 26, 2017. Picture taken October 26, 2017. (Reuters)
A worker makes copper trays inside a workshop in Kolkata, India, October 26, 2017. Picture taken October 26, 2017. (Reuters)
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Trump Says Steep Copper Tariffs in Store as He Broadens His Trade War

A worker makes copper trays inside a workshop in Kolkata, India, October 26, 2017. Picture taken October 26, 2017. (Reuters)
A worker makes copper trays inside a workshop in Kolkata, India, October 26, 2017. Picture taken October 26, 2017. (Reuters)

US President Donald Trump on Tuesday said he would impose a 50% tariff on imported copper and soon introduce long-threatened levies on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, broadening his trade war that has rattled markets worldwide.

One day after he pressured 14 trading partners, including powerhouse US suppliers like South Korea and Japan, with sharply higher tariffs, Trump reiterated his threat of 10% tariffs on products from Brazil, India and other members of the BRICS group of countries.

He also said trade talks have been going well with the European Union and China, though he added he is only days away from sending a tariff letter to the EU.

Trump's remarks, made during a White House cabinet meeting, could inject further instability into a global economy that has been shaken by the tariffs he has imposed or threatened on imports to the world's largest consumer market.

US copper futures jumped more than 10% after Trump's announcement of new duties on a metal that is critical to electric vehicles, military hardware, the power grid and many consumer goods. They would join duties already in place for steel, aluminum and automobile imports, though it was unclear when the new tariffs might take effect.

US pharmaceutical stocks also slid following Trump's threat of 200% tariffs on drug imports, which he said could be delayed by about a year.

Other countries, meanwhile, said they would try to soften the impact of Trump's threatened duties after he pushed back a Wednesday deadline to August 1.

Trump's administration promised "90 deals in 90 days" after he unveiled an array of country-specific duties in early April. So far only two agreements have been reached, with the United Kingdom and Vietnam. Trump has said a deal with India is close.

Trump said countries have been clamoring to negotiate.

"It's about time the United States of America started collecting money from countries that were ripping us off ... and laughing behind our back at how stupid we were," he said.

Trading partners across the globe say it has been difficult to negotiate even framework agreements with the US given the haphazard way new tariffs are announced, complicating their internal discussions about concessions.

HIGHEST LEVELS SINCE 1934

Following Trump's announcement of higher tariffs for imports from the 14 countries, US research group Yale Budget Lab estimated consumers face an effective US tariff rate of 17.6%, up from 15.8% previously and the highest in nine decades.

Trump's administration has been touting those tariffs as a significant revenue source. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Washington has taken in about $100 billion so far and could collect $300 billion by the end of the year.

The United States has taken in about $80 billion annually in tariff revenue in recent years.

The S&P 500 finished slightly lower on Tuesday, a day after Wall Street markets sold off sharply following Trump's new tariffs announcement.

Trump said he will "probably" tell the European Union within two days what rate it can expect for its exports to the US, adding that the 27-member bloc had been treating his administration "very nicely" in trade talks.

The EU, the largest bilateral trade partner of the US, aims to strike a deal before August 1 with concessions for key export industries such as aircraft, medical equipment and spirits, according to EU sources. Brussels is also considering an arrangement that would protect European automakers with large US production facilities.

However, German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil warned that the EU was prepared to retaliate if necessary.

"If we don't reach a fair trade deal with the US, the EU is ready to take counter measures," he said in the lower house of parliament. Japan, which faces a possible 25% tariff, wants concessions for its large automobile industry and will not sacrifice its agriculture sector, a powerful domestic lobby, for the sake of an early deal, top trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa said on Tuesday.

South Korea, which also faces a possible 25% tariff, said it planned to intensify trade talks over the coming weeks "to reach a mutually beneficial result."

Washington and Beijing agreed to a trade framework in June, but with many of the details still unclear, traders and investors are watching to see if it unravels before a separate, US-imposed August 12 deadline or leads to a lasting detente.

"We have had a really good relationship with China lately, and we're getting along with them very well. They've been very fair on our trade deal, honestly," Trump said, adding that he has been speaking regularly with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Trump said the United States would impose tariffs of 25% on goods from Tunisia, Malaysia and Kazakhstan; 30% on South Africa and Bosnia and Herzegovina; 32% on Indonesia; 35% on Serbia and Bangladesh; 36% on Cambodia and Thailand; and 40% on Laos and Myanmar.

Cambodia hailed as a big success a reduction in the tariff rate from 49% to 36% and said it was seeking to negotiate a further cut. The tariffs have been an issue for Cambodia's garments and footwear sector, the biggest driver of its economy.

The US is also the main export market for Bangladesh's ready-made garments industry, which accounts for more than 80% of its export earnings and employs 4 million people.