US Diplomats Discuss ‘Options’ Should South Sudan Peace Deal Fail

United Nations peacekeepers patrol in the camp for displaced people inside the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) compound in Malakal, Upper Nile State, which is currently held by anti-government forces, March 4, 2014. REUTERS/Andreea Campeanu
United Nations peacekeepers patrol in the camp for displaced people inside the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) compound in Malakal, Upper Nile State, which is currently held by anti-government forces, March 4, 2014. REUTERS/Andreea Campeanu
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US Diplomats Discuss ‘Options’ Should South Sudan Peace Deal Fail

United Nations peacekeepers patrol in the camp for displaced people inside the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) compound in Malakal, Upper Nile State, which is currently held by anti-government forces, March 4, 2014. REUTERS/Andreea Campeanu
United Nations peacekeepers patrol in the camp for displaced people inside the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) compound in Malakal, Upper Nile State, which is currently held by anti-government forces, March 4, 2014. REUTERS/Andreea Campeanu

Western diplomats and experts have warned that South Sudan’s latest peace deal will likely not stop the country’s bloody conflict.

US officials have discussed a range of options if the deal fails again, including sanctioning more senior South Sudanese government officials, downgrading diplomatic relations and even de-recognition the government of South Sudan as a potential option.

However, some experts see this not enough.

Many of these observers say the deal backs effectively the same power-sharing formula to end the country’s civil war that has repeatedly failed before, which they say highlights South Sudan’s tragic arc from an international success story to a chronic diplomatic catastrophe.

“Nothing has really changed,” one senior European diplomat told Foreign Policy.

Other American and Western officials cast doubt on the very foundations of the peace deal and complain that it has no strategy to find another path to peace if this one fails. “There is no reason to suggest that the same power-sharing agreement that has failed so many times will work,” said Payton Knopf, a former head of the UN Panel of Experts on South Sudan who is now with the US Institute of Peace.

One US official said: “Now that the government has been formed, I also don’t think there’s a plan. What are we pushing for, what are we focused on now? It’s still unclear.”

“We hope that genuine leadership will be shown on all sides and that the peace process will continue moving forward,” a State Department spokesman said when asked for comment. “If progress stalls, however, the United States will use all available tools, including sanctions, to promote accountability for those who deny peace and progress to the South Sudanese people,” he added.

Diplomats believe that Kiir’s early February decision to reduce the number of states in South Sudan from 32 to 10, plus three administrative areas, was a significant concession that removed Machar’s justifications to avoid returning to South Sudan.

A senior US official expressed cautious optimism that the latest deal may have a better chance of working than previous ones, in a briefing to reporters late last month.



Russia Warns US, South Korea and Japan against Forming Security Alliance Targeting North Korea

Russia's Foreign Affairs Minister Sergei Lavrov attends the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Post-Ministerial Conference during the 58th ASEAN Foreign Ministers' meeting and related meetings at the Convention Centre in Kuala Lumpur, Thursday, July 10, 2025. (Mohd Rasfan/Pool Photo via AP)
Russia's Foreign Affairs Minister Sergei Lavrov attends the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Post-Ministerial Conference during the 58th ASEAN Foreign Ministers' meeting and related meetings at the Convention Centre in Kuala Lumpur, Thursday, July 10, 2025. (Mohd Rasfan/Pool Photo via AP)
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Russia Warns US, South Korea and Japan against Forming Security Alliance Targeting North Korea

Russia's Foreign Affairs Minister Sergei Lavrov attends the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Post-Ministerial Conference during the 58th ASEAN Foreign Ministers' meeting and related meetings at the Convention Centre in Kuala Lumpur, Thursday, July 10, 2025. (Mohd Rasfan/Pool Photo via AP)
Russia's Foreign Affairs Minister Sergei Lavrov attends the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Post-Ministerial Conference during the 58th ASEAN Foreign Ministers' meeting and related meetings at the Convention Centre in Kuala Lumpur, Thursday, July 10, 2025. (Mohd Rasfan/Pool Photo via AP)

Russia’s foreign minister on Saturday warned the US, South Korea and Japan against forming a security partnership targeting North Korea as he visited his country's ally for talks on further solidifying their booming military and other cooperation.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov flew to North Korea’s eastern Wonsan city on Friday for a meeting with his North Korean counterpart Choe Son Hui, The Associated Press.

Relations between Russia and North Korea have been flourishing in recent years, with North Korea supplying troops and ammunitions to support Russia’s war against Ukraine in return for military and economic assistance. That has raised concerns among South Korea, the US and others that Russia might also transfer to North Korea sensitive technologies that can increase the danger of its nuclear and missile programs.

After a meeting with Choe on Saturday, Lavrov accused the US, South Korea and Japan of what he called their military buildups around North Korea.

“We warn against exploiting these ties to build alliances directed against anyone, including North Korea and, of course, Russia,” he told reporters, according to Russia’s state Tass news agency.

The US, South Korea and Japan have been expanding or restoring their trilateral military exercises in response to North Korea’s advancing nuclear program. On Friday, the three countries held a joint air drill involving US nuclear-capable bombers near the Korean Peninsula, as their top military officers met in Seoul and urged North Korea to cease all unlawful activities that threaten regional security.

North Korea views major US-led military drills as invasion rehearsals. It has long argued that it’s forced to develop nuclear weapons to defend itself from US military threats.

Lavrov said Russia understands North Korea’s decision to seek nuclear weapons.

“The technologies used by North Korea are the result of the work of its own scientists. We respect North Korea’s aspirations and understand the reasons why it is pursuing a nuclear development,” Lavrov said.

During their meeting, Choe reiterated that North Korea “unconditionally” supports Russia’s fight against Ukraine. She described ties between North Korea and Russia as “the invincible alliance.”

Lavrov said he repeated Russia’s gratitude for the contribution that North Korean troops made in efforts to repel a Ukrainian incursion into Russia’s Kursk border region.

Wonsan city, the meeting venue, is where North Korea recently opened a mammoth beach resort that it says can accommodate nearly 20,000 people.

In his comments at the start of his meeting with Choe, Lavrov said that “I am sure that Russian tourists will be increasingly eager to come here. We will do everything we can to facilitate this, creating conditions for this, including air travel,” according to the Russian Foreign Ministry.

The Wonsan-Kalma tourist zone is at the center of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s push to boost tourism as a way to improve his country’s troubled economy. But prospects for the biggest tourist complex in North Korea aren’t clear, as the country appears unlikely to fully reopen its borders and embrace Western tourists anytime soon.