Western diplomats and experts have warned that South Sudan’s latest peace deal will likely not stop the country’s bloody conflict.
US officials have discussed a range of options if the deal fails again, including sanctioning more senior South Sudanese government officials, downgrading diplomatic relations and even de-recognition the government of South Sudan as a potential option.
However, some experts see this not enough.
Many of these observers say the deal backs effectively the same power-sharing formula to end the country’s civil war that has repeatedly failed before, which they say highlights South Sudan’s tragic arc from an international success story to a chronic diplomatic catastrophe.
“Nothing has really changed,” one senior European diplomat told Foreign Policy.
Other American and Western officials cast doubt on the very foundations of the peace deal and complain that it has no strategy to find another path to peace if this one fails. “There is no reason to suggest that the same power-sharing agreement that has failed so many times will work,” said Payton Knopf, a former head of the UN Panel of Experts on South Sudan who is now with the US Institute of Peace.
One US official said: “Now that the government has been formed, I also don’t think there’s a plan. What are we pushing for, what are we focused on now? It’s still unclear.”
“We hope that genuine leadership will be shown on all sides and that the peace process will continue moving forward,” a State Department spokesman said when asked for comment. “If progress stalls, however, the United States will use all available tools, including sanctions, to promote accountability for those who deny peace and progress to the South Sudanese people,” he added.
Diplomats believe that Kiir’s early February decision to reduce the number of states in South Sudan from 32 to 10, plus three administrative areas, was a significant concession that removed Machar’s justifications to avoid returning to South Sudan.
A senior US official expressed cautious optimism that the latest deal may have a better chance of working than previous ones, in a briefing to reporters late last month.
