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Saudi Crude Supply Increases as Pact to Rein In Oil Production Expires

FILE PHOTO: A view shows branded oil tanks at Saudi Aramco oil facility in Abqaiq, Saudi Arabia October 12, 2019. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov
FILE PHOTO: A view shows branded oil tanks at Saudi Aramco oil facility in Abqaiq, Saudi Arabia October 12, 2019. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov
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Saudi Crude Supply Increases as Pact to Rein In Oil Production Expires

FILE PHOTO: A view shows branded oil tanks at Saudi Aramco oil facility in Abqaiq, Saudi Arabia October 12, 2019. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov
FILE PHOTO: A view shows branded oil tanks at Saudi Aramco oil facility in Abqaiq, Saudi Arabia October 12, 2019. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov

Saudi Arabia’s crude supply rose on Wednesday to a record of more than 12 million barrels per day, two industry sources said. This came a day after a producer pact to rein in oil production expired on Tuesday.

The Kingdom had said that its oil exports would be about 10 million bpd, but it gave no indication of how much crude would go into storage, amid a plunge in demand triggered by the coronavirus outbreak.

Meanwhile, US and Russian energy officials held rare talks about oil after crude prices crashed to levels last seen almost 20 years ago.

For his part, US President Donald Trump warned that oil cheaper “than water” was hurting the industry, Reuters reported.

Oil prices fell nearly 70% from January highs as lockdowns due to the coronavirus hammered demand and as producing nations flooded the market in a race for market share after a deal they engineered on supply curbs broke down.

On Tuesday, US Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette spoke with his Russian counterpart Alexander Novak about the price slump and they agreed to hold future discussions involving other major world oil producers and consumers.

The call occurred a day after Trump and Russia's president Vladimir Putin agreed in a phone conversation to have their top energy officials discuss global oil market turmoil.

Trump said on Tuesday he would join Saudi Arabia and Russia, if need be, for talks about the fall in oil prices, noting that oil slid towards $25 a barrel, after touching its lowest level in 18 years.

“There is so much oil and in some cases it’s probably less valuable than water. At some points of the world the water is much more valuable. So, we’ve never seen anything like it,” Trump said.

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Firm Dollar Keeps Pound, Euro and Yen Under Pressure

US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/ File Photo
US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/ File Photo
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Firm Dollar Keeps Pound, Euro and Yen Under Pressure

US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/ File Photo
US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/ File Photo

The US dollar charged ahead on Thursday, underpinned by rising Treasury yields, putting the yen, sterling and euro under pressure near multi-month lows amid the shifting threat of tariffs.

The focus for markets in 2025 has been on US President-elect Donald Trump's agenda as he steps back into the White House on Jan. 20, with analysts expecting his policies to both bolster growth and add to price pressures, according to Reuters.

CNN on Wednesday reported that Trump is considering declaring a national economic emergency to provide legal justification for a series of universal tariffs on allies and adversaries. On Monday, the Washington Post said Trump was looking at more nuanced tariffs, which he later denied.

Concerns that policies introduced by the Trump administration could reignite inflation has led bond yields higher, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note hitting 4.73% on Wednesday, its highest since April 25. It was at 4.6709% on Thursday.

"Trump's shifting narrative on tariffs has undoubtedly had an effect on USD. It seems this capriciousness is something markets will have to adapt to over the coming four years," said Kieran Williams, head of Asia FX at InTouch Capital Markets.

The bond market selloff has left the dollar standing tall and casting a shadow on the currency market.

Among the most affected was the pound, which was headed for its biggest three-day drop in nearly two years.

Sterling slid to $1.2239 on Thursday, its weakest since November 2023, even as British government bond yields hit multi-year highs.

Ordinarily, higher gilt yields would support the pound, but not in this case.

The sell-off in UK government bond markets resumed on Thursday, with 10-year and 30-year gilt yields jumping again in early trading, as confidence in Britain's fiscal outlook deteriorates.

"Such a simultaneous sell-off in currency and bonds is rather unusual for a G10 country," said Michael Pfister, FX analyst at Commerzbank.

"It seems to be the culmination of a development that began several months ago. The new Labour government's approval ratings are at record lows just a few months after the election, and business and consumer sentiment is severely depressed."

Sterling was last down about 0.69% at $1.2282.

The euro also eased, albeit less than the pound, to $1.0302, lurking close to the two-year low it hit last week as investors remain worried the single currency may fall to the key $1 mark this year due to tariff uncertainties.

The yen hovered near the key 160 per dollar mark that led to Tokyo intervening in the market last July, after it touched a near six-month low of 158.55 on Wednesday.

Though it strengthened a bit on the day and was last at 158.15 per dollar. That all left the dollar index, which measures the US currency against six other units, up 0.15% and at 109.18, just shy of the two-year high it touched last week.

Also in the mix were the Federal Reserve minutes of its December meeting, released on Wednesday, which showed the central bank flagged new inflation concerns and officials saw a rising risk the incoming administration's plans may slow economic growth and raise unemployment.

With US markets closed on Thursday, the spotlight will be on Friday's payrolls report as investors parse through data to gauge when the Fed will next cut rates.