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Arab Coalition Urges All Yemen Parties to Return to Riyadh Agreement

Saudi military vehicles patrol Aden after Yemen separatists declared self-rule in the south of the country. (AFP)
Saudi military vehicles patrol Aden after Yemen separatists declared self-rule in the south of the country. (AFP)
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Arab Coalition Urges All Yemen Parties to Return to Riyadh Agreement

Saudi military vehicles patrol Aden after Yemen separatists declared self-rule in the south of the country. (AFP)
Saudi military vehicles patrol Aden after Yemen separatists declared self-rule in the south of the country. (AFP)

The Arab Coalition supporting Yemen’s UN-recognized government urged all parties in Yemen to return to the Riyadh Agreement following a surprising declaration of “self-rule” in Aden by the Southern Transitional Council (STC).

“We stress the need to restore conditions to their previous state in the interim capital Aden. Following the surprising announcement of a state of emergency by the Southern Transitional Council, we re-emphasize the need to promptly implement the Riyadh Agreement,” the Coalition said in a statement on Monday.

The Coalition, which is led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, stressed “the need to restore conditions to their previous state following the announcement of a state of emergency by the Southern Transitional Council and the consequential development of affairs in the capital (Aden) and some Southern governorates in Yemen.”

It urged all parties to immediately end any steps contrary to the Riyadh Agreement, “and work rapidly towards its implementation,” citing the wide support for the agreement by the international community and the United Nations.

“The Coalition has and will continue to undertake practical and systematic steps to implement the Riyadh Agreement between the parties to unite Yemeni ranks, restore state institutions and combat the scourge of terrorism. The responsibility rests with the signatories to the Agreement to undertake national steps toward implementing its provisions, which were signed and agreed upon with a timeframe for implementation,” the statement added.

It also demanded “an end to any escalatory actions and calls for return to the Agreement by the participating parties, stressing the immediate need for implementation without delay, and the need to prioritize the Yemeni peoples’ interests above all else, as well as working to achieve the stated goals of restoring the state, ending the coup and combatting terrorist organizations.”

The Coalition reaffirmed “its ongoing support to the legitimate Yemeni government, and its support for implementing the Riyadh Agreement, which entails forming a competent government that operate from the interim capital Aden to tackle economic and developmental challenges, in light of natural disasters such as floods, fears of the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak, and work to provide services to the brotherly people of Yemen.”

Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan tweeted: “The Riyadh Agreement, guarantees political cooperation for the interests of the Yemeni people, and is backed by the UN and the international community.”

“We call for restoring the conditions in Aden as they were before the STC statement, and to implement the Riyadh Agreement.”

“We in (Saudi Arabia) and United Arab Emirates strongly believe that the internationally backed Riyadh Agreement has guaranteed an opportunity for the brotherly Yemeni people to live in peace,” Saudi Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Adel al-Jubeir said in a tweet. “We reject any hostilities that will jeopardize the safety and stability of Yemen.”

Saudi Deputy Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman tweeted that the Arab coalition statement, led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, underscores its constant commitment towards the security and stability of Yemen.

“During these challenging global times, leaders in Aden must realize their historic responsibility to keep the Yemeni people safe, and more violence will not achieve that. The Riyadh Agreement, which is backed by the international community, must be implemented,” he urged.

“We urge all parties in Aden to put the Yemeni people first and abide by commitments made in the Riyadh Agreement last November. KSA and UAE reaffirm that the agreement represents the only way forward, and we hope parties will observe their commitments” he added.

Restoring the security and stability of Yemen are among Saudi Arabia’s top priorities, stressed Prince Khalid.

Saudi Ambassador to Yemen Mohammed Al-Jaber said the Riyadh Agreement was a “practical solution to preserve Yemen’s stability and restore its institutions.”

“Saudi Arabia, the UAE and other members of the coalition have always sought the interests of the Yemeni people and they are constantly exerting efforts to implement the agreement and bridge divides between the two parties,” he said. “They will continue their efforts until the Yemeni people reach peace, security and stability.”

The legitimate Yemeni government declared the STC’s announcement of self-rule in the South as a coup against the Riyadh Agreement.

It condemned it as a continuation of the armed rebellion, noting that six provinces and local authorities have rejected the announcement and sided with the legitimate government.

The STC is a political movement that was formed in 2017. Its members describe it as an extension of the southern separatist movement that was formed after the 1994 war.

The council has accused the government of shirking its responsibilities in implementing the Riyadh Agreement. Government officials, on the other hand, have said that they have not been able to return to Aden and resume their duties.

The government slammed the STC announcement as an attempt to “escape blame from its failure to serve the people in Aden given the lack of services after all state institutions have been obstructed and the government has been prevented from practicing its duties.”

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Syria’s al-Sharaa Under Trump’s Spotlight, Admiring ‘Strong’ Leaders

Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa (AP)
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa (AP)
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Syria’s al-Sharaa Under Trump’s Spotlight, Admiring ‘Strong’ Leaders

Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa (AP)
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa (AP)

A hundred days after Ahmed al-Sharaa was sworn in as Syria’s president, US officials are still proceeding with caution regarding his administration. There are concerns about the potential for chaos, which could create fertile ground for extremist groups and allow Iran to maintain its foothold in the country.

Additionally, there are growing anxieties over Türkiye’s expanding influence across Syria and its implications for Israel.

These points were highlighted in discussions with Robert Wood, a former US ambassador who held various positions at the State Department and served at the US Mission to the United Nations; Robert Ford, former US ambassador to Syria; Henri Barkey, senior fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and former government official; and Ayman Abdel Nour, a Syrian-American political analyst and journalist.

While caution is urged in evaluating al-Sharaa’s leadership, it remains unclear whether his actions will translate into meaningful governance.

According to Wood, the current situation in Syria can be described as highly complex, especially considering recent violence, and experts are watching closely to see how al-Sharaa navigates these challenges. While his hosting of a national unity conference has drawn some positive attention, concerns remain about the broader implications of his leadership.

Ford shares a similar perspective, acknowledging that Shara's actions often align with what one would expect from a head of state. Notably, his agreement with Mazloum Abdi, leader of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), is seen as a potential step toward greater internal stability, provided it is properly implemented.

However, Barkey emphasizes that Abdi controls a much larger force than other groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which likely made it necessary for al-Sharaa to strike a deal with him. If Abdi forms alliances with other minority groups, such as the Druze, he could become a key figure of opposition to al-Sharaa’s rule. Additionally, al-Sharaa faces the challenge of reducing his reliance on Turkish support, while also proving his ability to act independently on the international stage.

US diplomats, however, remained cautious about al-Sharaa's leadership, with some expressing skepticism about his ability to lead effectively. While he appears to be acting presidentially, concerns persist regarding his control over extremist factions within his government, as well as recent security violations in Latakia and Tartus. Experts note that despite his ascent to power, Sharaa has yet to unite the country, with some pointing to the collapse of the regime’s military as a key factor in his rise.

A significant point of criticism from Barkey is al-Sharaa’s appointment of former jihadists as governors in key areas, including Latakia and Tartus, as well as his reliance on family members and loyalists within his government.

While some US officials argue that Sharaa’s government may not be directly involved in recent incidents, uncertainty remains about who in his administration might be complicit.

For his part, Abdel Nour highlights a shift in public perception of al-Sharaa since the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024.

Initially, Syrians—including Alawites—were relieved by Assad's ousting, but nearly 100 days into Sharaa's presidency, tensions have risen due to discrepancies between al-Sharaa’s rhetoric and the reality on the ground, particularly in relation to key figures like Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shibani and mid-level officials.

Key Questions Raised on Accountability and Rule of Law

Ford echoed concerns about al-Sharaa’s ability to address critical issues, including accountability and the rule of law, especially following the unrest in Latakia and Tartus.

Despite al-Sharaa’s formation of a committee to investigate the incidents, Ford questions whether those responsible for violations will be held publicly accountable, stressing that such actions are crucial for maintaining trust within security forces and the broader public.

Wood acknowledged the significance of al-Sharaa’s national unity conference yet remains deeply concerned about the potential agreements Sharaa may strike with the SDF. While he sees positive signs, he underscores the importance of thorough investigations into recent killings, as the identities of those responsible remain unclear.

US Perspectives on al-Sharaa’s Leadership

Abdel Nour describes two prevalent perspectives in Washington regarding al-Sharaa’s leadership. One, held by military and security figures with experience in Iraq, doubts that the new Syrian leadership will bring significant change, regardless of its outward appearance. The other viewpoint suggests giving al-Sharaa several months to adjust to the new reality.

Fears Over ISIS Prisoners and Regional Stability

A significant concern raised by Wood is the potential release of approximately 9,500 ISIS fighters currently held in over 20 prisons across Syria, should Sharaa reach a deal with the SDF. These fighters could pose a serious security threat not only to Syria but to Iraq and the broader region.

Ford added that al-Sharaa’s past, particularly his involvement with jihadist factions like Jabhat al-Nusra and ISIS, raises questions about his true political motivations. Ford wonders whether al-Sharaa used these groups for political leverage.

Iran’s Influence and Regional Dynamics

Both Wood and Ford emphasize the importance of monitoring Iran’s role in Syria. Ford warns that further instability could provide Iran with opportunities to rebuild its influence in certain Syrian communities, which he believes would not align with US national security interests.

Wood stresses that neighboring countries, including Israel and Türkiye, have a strong interest in a unified Syria to avoid further regional instability.

Professor Barkey cautions that while Iran's influence in Syria has not been eliminated, Tehran will likely continue to pursue ways to reassert its presence.

Türkiye-Israel Tensions and the Future of Syria

Concerns over a potential Turkish-Israeli confrontation in Syria are growing. Ford points out that Türkiye, a key player with growing ties to al-Sharaa’s government, could play a significant role in Syria’s future. He worries that a direct conflict between Turkish and Israeli forces, potentially involving airstrikes or proxy engagements, could escalate tensions in the region.

However, Barkey believes that such a scenario is unlikely to escalate into direct military confrontation. Instead, he suggests that the Turkish-Israeli rivalry will remain largely political, with both countries focusing on strategic interests in the region, particularly in Syria’s south where Israel is concerned about the resurgence of Hezbollah or other new actors.

In discussions surrounding Syria’s new constitution, Ford sees little value in UN Security Council Resolution 2254 and the Constitutional Committee led by UN Special Envoy to Syria, Geir Pedersen. Similarly, Barkey shares Ford’s skepticism, noting that he sees limited potential for the UN to bring about meaningful change unless Arab countries step in with support.

Barkey also echoes the view held by many that US President Donald Trump was unpredictable in his decision-making. He added that Trump had a deep admiration, though not fascination, for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, viewing him as one of the “strongmen” capable of shaping the future of their countries as they see fit.

Looking ahead, Barkey remains uncertain about Syria’s future, acknowledging that the situation is highly unpredictable. He suggests that if Syria were to experience another war or a severe collapse of law and order, it is highly probable that ISIS could resurge.

The US government, Barkey speculates, is likely deeply concerned that without American forces acting as a buffer or deterrent, the stability of the region could be further jeopardized in the event of a breakdown in Syria.