In Iraq, Public Outrage over Austerity Stymies Reform Plan

Iraqis check out books sold by a vendor in central Baghdad, April 22, during the coronavirus pandemic. (AFP)
Iraqis check out books sold by a vendor in central Baghdad, April 22, during the coronavirus pandemic. (AFP)
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In Iraq, Public Outrage over Austerity Stymies Reform Plan

Iraqis check out books sold by a vendor in central Baghdad, April 22, during the coronavirus pandemic. (AFP)
Iraqis check out books sold by a vendor in central Baghdad, April 22, during the coronavirus pandemic. (AFP)

Like she had done for years, Nisrine Saleh arrived at the bank to withdraw her monthly pension, paid by Iraq's government. But this time, the $920 disbursement was more than $100 short.

Cash was missing from nearly one million retired Iraqis' allowances in June, Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi acknowledged last week, sparking public uproar and tainting the government's first attempt at financial reform.

The disbursements are a lifeline for many retirees and their dependents in the heavily oil-reliant country, where 20 percent of the population lives in poverty.

That rate is set to double this year, according to the World Bank. Iraq will also struggle to fund non-pension stipends with monthly oil revenues slashed by low crude prices.

OPEC's second-largest crude producer relies on oil exports to fund more than 90 percent of its budget, making it particularly vulnerable to price shocks, explained AFP.

In May, it raked in just over $2 billion -- less than a third of what it needs to keep the government running, according to data from the oil ministry and several multilateral institutions.

Faced with this staggering shortfall, the new cabinet is proposing a slew of financial reforms, including cuts to state salaries.

But with four million Iraqis working for the government, three million receiving pensions and another million on social welfare, such cuts are deeply unpopular.

"They should cut their own salaries so they understand how we feel when our pensions are cut," said Saleh, who retired five years ago from a public sector job.

"They're willing to steal a piece of bread from a poor Iraqi's mouth, but still can't bring back the money stolen since 2003," she added, referring to billions of dollars in public funds lost to government graft since the US-led invasion of Iraq 17 years ago.

Bloated public sector

That invasion dismantled Saddam Hussein's Baathist regime but kept in place its socialist-era system of mass public hiring, subsidies and stipends.

Since 2003, public sector employment has more than trebled, while salaries and benefits have ballooned nine times over, according to a study by Iraqi economist Ali Mawlawi.

The problem is getting worse every year: more than 800,000 Iraqis enter the workforce annually, expecting to be appointed to a public sector job.

Last year, to make room for new hires, ex-premier Adel Abdel Mahdi moved to decrease the retirement age, sending hundreds of thousands of public servants home.

But that in turn added pressure on pension outlays.

Kadhimi told reporters that the portion missing from retirees' allowances this month was caused by a "lack of liquidity," not a deliberate cut.

"The pensioner will get the missing amount next month. I've promised that pensions will not be touched," he vowed.

But the damage was done: media outlets accused the premier of targeting poor pensioners instead of high-level architects of graft.

Parliament swiftly voted against any salary cuts and delayed another vote on internal or external borrowing, which could have helped the government tap cash immediately.

'Accounts empty'

The public backlash could scupper the government's structural reform plans, which include some salary cuts to senior state workers.

"Our accounts are almost empty. Not enough revenues are coming in and with no way to get liquidity fast, the idea was to cut salaries," a senior official told AFP.

Iraqi public workers are paid a nominal salary, plus cash bonuses based on factors including seniority, education, children -- or, informally, political and family ties.

An Iraqi lawmaker, for example, earns between $3,000 and $6,000 each month, while the average monthly wage is only about $600.

The government had been considering slashing high-level public servants' cash bonuses by around 50 percent, and low-level employees by around a third.

But given the outrage over the pension fund gaffe, the government appears to have slowed down those plans.

Kadhimi has also pledged to audit the state stipend program, which includes not only pensions but also payouts to Iraqis exiled or jailed under Saddam's regime.

Iraq compensates some 30,000 people and their relatives who were exiled by Saddam to neighboring Saudi Arabia with the equivalent of $1,000 per month.

The same amount is also paid to some 200,000 former political prisoners.

In an address to journalists last week, Kadhimi insisted those payouts be reviewed, as many recipients lived abroad and didn't need the money as badly as Iraqis back home.

"I consider this a crime," Kadhimi said.

His comments have sparked protests by former political prisoners and relatives of exiled Iraqis who are against any cuts.

But Yasser Saffar, a 43-year-old unemployed Iraqi in Baghdad, stood with the prime minister.

"How is the government still compensating people who have spent their lives in Europe, but not the citizen who lived through years of sanctions, Saddam's injustice, terrorism and civil war?" Saffar asked.



Who Is Joseph Aoun, a Low-Profile Army Chief Who Is Now Lebanon’s President?

 Newly-elected Lebanese President Joseph Aoun reviews the honor guard upon his arrival at the Lebanese Parliament to be sworn in as a new president, in Beirut, Lebanon, Thursday, Jan. 9, 2025. (AP)
Newly-elected Lebanese President Joseph Aoun reviews the honor guard upon his arrival at the Lebanese Parliament to be sworn in as a new president, in Beirut, Lebanon, Thursday, Jan. 9, 2025. (AP)
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Who Is Joseph Aoun, a Low-Profile Army Chief Who Is Now Lebanon’s President?

 Newly-elected Lebanese President Joseph Aoun reviews the honor guard upon his arrival at the Lebanese Parliament to be sworn in as a new president, in Beirut, Lebanon, Thursday, Jan. 9, 2025. (AP)
Newly-elected Lebanese President Joseph Aoun reviews the honor guard upon his arrival at the Lebanese Parliament to be sworn in as a new president, in Beirut, Lebanon, Thursday, Jan. 9, 2025. (AP)

Lebanon’s new president and former army commander Joseph Aoun has maintained a low profile. Those who know him say he is no-nonsense, kind and averse to affiliating himself with any party or even expressing a political opinion — a rarity for someone in Lebanon’s fractured, transactional political system.

Bilal Saab, a former Pentagon official who is now senior managing director of the TRENDS US consulting firm, often met Aoun while overseeing Washington's security cooperation in the Middle East. He called Aoun a "very sweet man, very compassionate, very warm" who avoided political discussions "like the plague."

"He really was viciously nonpartisan, did not have any interest in even delivering speeches or doing media," Saab said. "He wanted to take care of business, and his only order of business was commanding the Lebanese army."

That might make Aoun an odd fit as Lebanon’s president after being elected Thursday — ending a more than two-year vacuum in the post — but Saab said it could be a boon for the country where incoming leaders typically demand that certain plum positions go to supporters.

"He’s not going to ask for equities in politics that typically any other president would do," Saab said.

Aoun, 61, is from Aichiye, a Christian village in Jezzine province, southern Lebanon. He joined the army as a cadet in 1983, during Lebanon's 15-year civil war.

George Nader, a retired brigadier general who served alongside Aoun, recalled him as keeping cool under fire.

They fought together in the battle of Adma in 1990, a fierce confrontation between the Lebanese army and the Lebanese Forces militia during the war's final stages. Nader described it as one of the toughest battles of his career.

"The level of bloodshed was significant and I remember Joseph was steady and focused," he said.

Aoun commanded the Lebanese army's 9th infantry brigade before being appointed army chief in March 2017.

During his tenure as commander, he oversaw the army’s response to a series of crises, beginning with a battle to push out militants from the ISIS group and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, who were then operating in eastern Lebanon near the Syrian border. The army fought in coordination with the Hezbollah group.

HTS in its current iteration led a lightning offensive that toppled Syrian president Bashar al-Assad last month and has become the de facto ruling party in Syria.

The Lebanese army navigated other challenges, including responding to mass anti-government protests in 2019, the 2020 Beirut port explosion and the 14-month conflict between Israel and Hezbollah that came to a halt with a ceasefire agreement in November.

The Lebanese military largely stayed on the sidelines in the Israel-Hezbollah war, only returning fire a handful of times when Israeli strikes hit its positions. Dozens of soldiers were killed in airstrikes and shelling

The military also took a major hit when Lebanon's currency collapsed beginning in 2019, reducing the monthly salary of a soldier to the equivalent of less than $100.

In a rare political statement, Aoun openly criticized the country's leadership for its lack of action on the issue in a speech in June 2021.

"What are you waiting for? What do you plan to do? We have warned more than once of the dangers of the situation," he said. The United States and Qatar both at one point subsidized soldiers' salaries.

Ed Gabriel, president of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a nonprofit that aims to build stronger US-Lebanon ties, said he met Aoun about seven years ago when he was taking over command of the armed forces and "immediately found him to be the best of those that we had worked with."

He described Aoun as a "very direct guy, very honest" and a leader "who inspires loyalty by his hard work." Those attributes helped Aoun to prevent a flood of defections during the economic crisis, when many soldiers had to resort to working second jobs, Gabriel said.

On a personal level, Gabriel described Aoun as a humble and deeply religious man. Like all Lebanese presidents and army commanders under Lebanon’s sectarian power-sharing system, Aoun is a Maronite Christian.

"His religion really sets the groundwork for ... his value system and his morals," Gabriel said.

In Aoun's hometown, residents burst into celebrations after his election, setting off fireworks, dancing in the streets and handing out sweets.

"We are currently living in very difficult times, and he is the right person for this challenging period," said Claire Aoun, among those celebrating. "May God guide and support him, and may he rebuild this entire nation for us."

But Aoun's election was not without controversy or universally supported, even among fellow Christians.

One of the most influential Christian parties in the country, the Free Patriotic Movement of former President Michel Aoun — no relation to the current president — opposed his candidacy. And the Lebanese Forces party gave him their endorsement only the night before the election.

Some have argued that Joseph Aoun’s election violated the law. The Lebanese constitution bars a sitting army commander from being elected president, though the ban has been waived multiple times. Some legislators were not happy doing it again.

Some in Lebanon also perceived Aoun's election as the result of outside pressure — notably from the United States — and less the result of internal consensus. Hezbollah's war with Israel weakened the group, politically and militarily, and left Lebanon in need of international assistance for reconstruction, which analysts said paved the way for Aoun's election.

Saab, the analyst, said painting Aoun as a puppet of Washington is unfair, although he acknowledged there’s no such thing as a Lebanese president or prime minister completely independent of foreign influence.

"The entire country is heavily penetrated and vulnerable and at the mercy of international powers," Saab said. "But ... if you were going to compare him to the leadership of Hezbollah being fully subservient to Iranian interests, then no, he’s not that guy when it comes to the Americans."