Hafez Assad to Amin Gemayel: There are No State Institutions in Lebanon

Asharq Al-Awsat releases excerpts from the former Lebanese president’s memoirs

Syrian President Hafez Assad (L) sees of Lebanese President Amin Gemayel at Damascus airport.
Syrian President Hafez Assad (L) sees of Lebanese President Amin Gemayel at Damascus airport.
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Hafez Assad to Amin Gemayel: There are No State Institutions in Lebanon

Syrian President Hafez Assad (L) sees of Lebanese President Amin Gemayel at Damascus airport.
Syrian President Hafez Assad (L) sees of Lebanese President Amin Gemayel at Damascus airport.

In his upcoming memoir, Lebanese former President Amin Gemayel recounts details of three meetings he held with late Syrian President Hafez Assad, Vice President Abdul Halim Khaddam, Prime Minister Abdul Rauf al-Kasm and Foreign Minister Farouk al-Sharaa in the 1980s when Lebanon was in the throes of its 1975-90 civil war. In December 1985, the Tripartite Accord was signed in Damascus between Lebanese Amal movement leader Nabih Berri, who would later become the country’s longest serving parliament speaker, Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt and then leader of the Lebanese Forces, Eli Hobeika.

Gemayel traveled to Damascus in January 1986 to express his reservations over the accord, which introduced major changes in Lebanon’s system of rule. The accord was reached among members of the Syrian leadership without consulting any Lebanese official. The agreement limits the jurisdiction of the president and transfers the executive authority to a “ministerial council” that is formed of militia leaders, who were involved in the war.

The following excerpts are part one of a three-part series on Gemayel’s memoirs:

On January 13, 1986, I traveled to Damascus to hold the 11th summit with the Syrian president. We held three work meetings that took up a total of ten and a half hours. The meetings were attended by Vice President Abdul Halim Khaddam, Prime Minister Abdul Rauf al-Kasm and Foreign Minister Farouk al-Sharaa.

The memoir published excerpts of the meetings, which have been verified by the Lebanese and Syrian presidencies.

“The first of the work meetings was held as soon as I arrived in Damascus. We first spoke of the developments in the al-Metn region” in Lebanon, before Gemayel briefed them on the details of his consultations in Beirut. He also briefed them on legal local and foreign consultations on the accord.

“The Lebanese people appreciate Syria’s efforts in ending the crisis. They are all convinced of the need to benefit from these efforts because the war has stretched for ten years, and it must end based on national constitutional and legal bases,” I said.

I relayed to them the reservations expressed by Lebanese parties on the Tripartite Accord, but they also were quick to explain that their rejection was “not directed against Syria, especially its president.”

“We are before a historic opportunity to primarily reach a solid and permanent solution to the Lebanese situation and secondly, address Lebanese-Syrian relations,” I stated. I was banking on Lebanese-Syrian cooperation and submitted my comments on the accord, which was delivered to me by Sharaa.

I noted that the accord “revises” Lebanese coexistence based on eliminating sectarianism. He told me: “The situation in Lebanon is charged with sectarianism. Syria itself, had experienced the same thing with the Muslim Brotherhood. I support liberating Lebanese society from this obstacle, but this demands finding the natural guidelines. I fear that the speedy and blunt treatment of this issue would backfire.”

“Lebanon is not Syria, which does not suffer from the same problem. Neither is it Iraq, where Islam is the religion of the state. We want to liberate Lebanon from this issue, without embarking on reckless adventures,” Sharaa said.

Assad added: “Does this mean that ending the sectarian system will lead us to the unknown? What does it entail to eliminate political sectarianism?

I responded: “We must find actual guidelines. Those who believe that the president of the republic is in control of the situation are wrong. The prime minister can stop it, and therein lies real partnership. I have no problem in eliminating it, but that will leave behind some problems.”

“What sort of problems?” asked Assad.

I responded: “We cannot accept the elimination of sectarianism as stipulated in the accord. Some consider sectarianism a privilege and others view it as a guarantee. I see it as a means of control.” The accord ultimately aims on ending the “Lebanese state or the Lebanese will.”

“Ending?” Assad asked incredulously.

I responded: “Yes, ending it. This system does not exist anywhere in the world, except in the Swiss cantons. If you do not have a strong ruling leadership, then you cannot implement the agreement. We have not held a vote at cabinet since 1943. It is unfortunate that those who took part in the agreement have never once been part of rule. One of its articles spoke of the jurisdiction of the ministerial council, which takes its decisions through complete quorum. What would happen if one member were absent?”

“I believe during the transitional period,” said Assad.

“Who knows when the transitional period ends! The accord speaks of taking major decisions through the ministerial council and the regular ones through the government. The state ministers who make up the ministerial council are naturally members of the cabinet. Jurisdictions will thereby contradict each other, which will consequently obstruct all state agencies.”

“The accord cannot possibly be implemented and it will produce the exact opposite goals it wants to achieve, which is Lebanon’s unification. It will lead to the emergence of cantons,” I warned.

I then listed other reservations, to which the Syrian president remarked: “So you are baulking at eliminating sectarianism, the collective or consensual leadership and the ministerial council.”

I explained that I had reservations over “collectiveness and consensus. We need a strong authority that can back constitution-building and lead to a strong state. The accord aborts the role of the head of state. Why? The constitution stipulates that the president enjoys wide jurisdiction, as if he were a dictator, but in practice, the situation is very different. Ever since the time of President Riad al-Solh, it is the prime minister who holds procedural authority. No decree can pass without the approval of the prime minister and concerned minister. This is the constitution.”

Khaddam objected to this.

Assad urged me to continued.

“If we want to defend democracy in Lebanon, then it would be a major mistake to have the cabinet appoint lawmakers, especially since we would be naming 200 MPs. We would be subjecting parliament to the will of government,” I continued.

I listed yet another reservation, saying that the accord allows the people who have ruined the country to become its protectors. “This does not resolve the country’s problem,” I noted. “If we allow them to resolve all problems, then we won’t reach a solution. The fighters told us what they want from us, but have we told them what we want from them? Take for example their weapons. Did they buy them from their own money or did they collect the money from the port revenues, state resources and civilian pockets?”

“You bought them and we are buying them from you,” responded Assad.

I continued: “As for bilateral relations … I have reservations over the bilateral relations article stipulated in the accord. Relations should be ratified through bilateral agreements.”

Assad replied, however: “We have been clear. It is through consensus from all parties. We have not asked this since 1976. This is a consensual demand from all Lebanese leaderships.”

“We agree on bilateral relations between a state and another. We are talking here about a constitutional document that should not address these issues, which should be limited to the foreign ministers of both countries. Agreements would then be ratified and submitted to a vote at parliament.”

“So, the relationship with Syria should not be included in this document?” asked Assad.

“It can be referred to, but the details should be included in bilateral agreements,” I urged. “Syria respects itself and as does Lebanon. It is not overeager to impose any relationship with Lebanon … There are no differences over the core issues in this matter.”

This concluded the first round of talks. The second round was resumed later that day at 7:15 pm.

Assad kicked off the meeting by saying: “We tolerated a lot for Lebanon throughout 11 years. We have never dealt with it as a card to control, but approached it from a principled and sentimental position. One people and one country. All the Arab nation is a single country. The colonialists produced these entities. Some 500,000 Lebanese sought refuge in Syria during the latest unrest.”

“Eight hundred thousand,” interjected al-Kasm.

“We contacted the fighters and militias. You recall how I told them to reach an agreement,” said Assad. “The fighters met. You should not be led to believe that we set the agreement. Had we done so, neither Hobeika, Berri, Jumblatt nor Amin Gemayel would have liked it. They agreed and differed. We relayed messages between them … I told them to meet in Beirut and I think they did. They then approached us and the accord was born. I have reservations over it, but I will repeat again that if we were the ones who drafted it, no one would have liked it,” revealed Assad. “Sectarianism? We in Syria have rejected it a while ago. Does the accord call for its immediate elimination?”

“No. That will take place after the transitional period,” replied Khaddam.

“The gatherers agreed on what they described as jurisdictions. We agree to any accord that ends the war, including its good and bad articles. Any attempt to impose a point of view will abort an agreement. This is our political and military view. We sent you the accord when they agreed on it. The accord does not reflect the position of the president, prime minister, ministers, Amal, the Lebanese Forces or PSP. The accord only reflects a form of rapprochement and represents the warring parties,” stated Assad.

He later informed me that he will take my reservations into consideration and relay them to the fighters. He then said: “Sheikh Amin, no Lebanese president has even exercised his authority, neither Franjieh nor Sarkis. You have exercised more than both of them. No one can ignore the historic ties between Syria and Lebanon. They spoke of special relations, so how can you go against a popular agreement? God does not separate Lebanon from Syria.”

“All that is needed is finding factors that preserve the unity of the country. I am not clinging to maintaining sectarianism … The accord stripped the president of his privileges. Regardless of this, a non-harmonious government, possibly one hostile to the president, may be formed. What then happens to binding parliamentary consultations? I would then act as a ballot box? Let parliament do that. I do not understand the point of equally sharing power among three entities. Are we punishing sectarianism in the country? Are the Maronites being punished for supporting the honest Arab position on Syria?” I asked.

Khaddam said the accord will be implemented immediately and that it will be introduced as a “new constitutional norm.”

“The accord has been institutionalized,” echoed Assad.

“Three people have drafted this treaty? Are they now a constitutional entity?” I wondered.

“Under normal circumstances, this would not be acceptable. But given that the current circumstances are not, then anything goes,” remarked al-Kasm.

“Will the constitution be suspended?” I asked.

“The constitution is already suspended,” responded Khaddam.

“This is completely unacceptable,” I declared.

To this al-Kasm asked: “Does the constitution stipulate any where that the president must be Maronite?”

“No, this is just a norm,” said Khaddam. “The accord stipulates that the president will act as head of state and supreme commander of the armed forces. He decides over war and peace, dissolves parliament, approves the budget, issues amnesty … this accord transformed the president from a ruler to a leader.”

“You are practicing more jurisdiction that the Syrian president,” Assad told me.

“The accord will be submitted to parliament, which will approve it and it will become a constitutional norm. This is a political settlement,” added Khaddam. “An agreement can be reached or the fighting will continue. The conflict first emerged as Christian-Muslim, but it has now changed. We can either speak of a settlement or declare one party victor over the other, which would spell disaster.”

At this, I relented for the accord to be submitted to parliament, saying that I will agree to it if the lawmakers do.

“The accord aborts constitutional institutions. This is my opinion and I will stick to it. I am asking the president to keep the bare minimum of this state. Collective leadership will lead to cantons on the ground and eliminating the president from procedural authority will paralyze the state,” I warned.

At this Assad, reiterated that I was exercising more jurisdiction that he does.

The third work meeting was held the next day. I reiterated my objection of the accord, saying it weakens the state. “I cannot agree to it without first referring to the legitimate constitutional authorities.”

“Do these authorities still stand?” asked Assad. “There are no institutions in Lebanon. There is no police and no army. Rather there are several armies. We are not imposing anything. We are not demanding anything. The gatherers reached an agreement. They believe that those who were present when the accord was signed are Lebanon and the state. Why don’t you accept this? They represent 80 or 90 percent of the fighters. According to my information, the majority of leaders in Lebanon are Muslim, except for the heads of the Kataeb party, and Lebanese Forces, which is affiliated with the Kataeb, as well as some Christian and Muslim clergy. Sheikh Amin, the opportunity at hand may not be repeated. The more blood is shed, the wider the divide will grow.”

I replied: “If we consider the notes I submitted yesterday, you will find that they can be applied and that way, we would ease some of the negative aspects of the accord. If my request embarrasses anyone, then we will submit it to parliament, which will relieve me of this responsibility. If the fighters want to occupy Baabda, then I don’t mind. It would be a revolt. I am keen on my duties and I will not take on a responsibility that I do not agree to.”

“If parliament approves it, then will you agree?” asked Assad.

“It will become law and I am bound to implement it,” I replied.

“There are now two options: Discussing it with the fighters or sending it to parliament,” said Assad.

“I will study the accord with you because discussing it with the fighters is pointless. They may not want it and hold me responsible for, which would lead to the resumption of the shelling and fighting,” I noted. “I am ready for any policy you decide on.”

“This is not a policy, but a treaty,” clarified Assad. “We will submit it to the ‘brothers’, because this is an accord between Lebanese parties, not with Syria.”

Before departing, Gemayel said: “I would like to declare my solidarity and sympathy with you. I did not receive anything after my election and now I am being held accountable for everything. We must succeed. Despite this, my conscience is clear because I have performed my duties to my country.”

Assad insisted on accompanying me to the airport despite his poor health. I seized the opportunity while we were alone in the car to assert to him that I was not opposed to reform, on condition that it take into consideration Lebanon’s interests and that they pass through a more representative official authority, rather than an alliance of militias.

Assad listened to me attentively and I believe I convinced him of my great keenness to find a solution to the crisis and maintain good relations with Syria. Khaddam, however, who is less courteous in behavior, declared to reporters at the airport: “Amending the accord is out of the question and those behind it are the ones in control in Lebanon.”

He then added with deliberate goading: “There won’t be a 12th or 13th summit.”

Part two continues on Saturday.



What Lies Ahead for Ukraine’s Contested Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant?

A Russian service member stands guard at a checkpoint near the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before the arrival of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) expert mission in the course of Russia-Ukraine conflict outside Enerhodar in the Zaporizhzhia region, Russian-controlled Ukraine, June 15, 2023. (Reuters)
A Russian service member stands guard at a checkpoint near the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before the arrival of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) expert mission in the course of Russia-Ukraine conflict outside Enerhodar in the Zaporizhzhia region, Russian-controlled Ukraine, June 15, 2023. (Reuters)
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What Lies Ahead for Ukraine’s Contested Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant?

A Russian service member stands guard at a checkpoint near the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before the arrival of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) expert mission in the course of Russia-Ukraine conflict outside Enerhodar in the Zaporizhzhia region, Russian-controlled Ukraine, June 15, 2023. (Reuters)
A Russian service member stands guard at a checkpoint near the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before the arrival of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) expert mission in the course of Russia-Ukraine conflict outside Enerhodar in the Zaporizhzhia region, Russian-controlled Ukraine, June 15, 2023. (Reuters)

The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Europe's largest, is one of the main sticking points in US President Donald Trump's peace plan to end the nearly four-year war between Russia and Ukraine. The issue is one of 20 points laid out by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in a framework peace proposal.

Here are some of the issues regarding the facility:

WHAT ROLE MAY THE US PLAY?

Russia took control of the plant in March 2022 and announced plans to connect it to its power grid. Almost all countries consider that it belongs to Ukraine but Russia says it is owned by Russia and a unit of Russia's state-owned Rosatom nuclear corporation runs the plant.

Zelenskiy stated at the end of December that the US side had proposed joint trilateral operation of the nuclear power plant with an American chief manager.

Zelenskiy said the Ukrainian proposal envisages Ukrainian-American use of the plant, with the US itself determining how to use 50% of the energy produced.

Russia has considered joint Russian-US use of the plant, according to the Kommersant newspaper.

WHAT IS ITS CURRENT STATUS?

The plant is located in Enerhodar on the banks ‌of the Dnipro River and ‌the Kakhovka Reservoir, 550 km (342 miles) southeast of the capital Kyiv.

The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant has ‌six ⁠Soviet-designed reactors. They were ‌all built in the 1980s, although the sixth only came online in the mid-1990s after the collapse of the Soviet Union. It has a total capacity of 5.7 gigawatts, according to an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) database.

Four of the six reactors no longer use Russian nuclear fuel, having switched to fuel produced by then-US nuclear equipment supplier Westinghouse.

After Russia took control of the station, it shut down five of its six reactors and the last reactor ceased to produce electricity in September 2022. Rosatom said in 2025 that it was ready to return the US fuel to the United States.

According to the Russian management of the plant, all six reactors are in "cold shutdown."

Both Russia and Ukraine have accused each other of striking the nuclear plant and of severing power lines to the plant.

The plant's equipment is powered by ⁠electricity supplied from Ukraine. Over the past four years these supplies have been interrupted at least eleven times due to breaks in power lines, forcing the plant to switch to emergency diesel generators.

Emergency generators ‌on site can supply electricity to keep the reactors cool if external power lines are cut.

IAEA ‍Director General Rafael Grossi says that fighting a war around a nuclear ‍plant has put nuclear safety and security in constant jeopardy.

WHY DOES RUSSIA WANT ZAPORIZHZHIA PLANT?

Russia has been preparing to restart the station but ‍says that doing so will depend on the situation in the area. Rosatom chief Alexei Likhachev has not ruled out the supply of electricity produced there to parts of Ukraine.

Oleksandr Kharchenko, director of the Energy Research Center in Kyiv, said Moscow intended to use the plant to cover a significant energy deficit in Russia's south.

"That's why they are fighting so hard for this station," he said.

In December 2025, Russia's Federal Service for Environmental, Technological and Nuclear Supervision issued a license for the operation of reactor No. 1, a key step towards restarting the reactor.

Ukraine's energy ministry called the move illegal and irresponsible, risking a nuclear accident.

WHY DOES UKRAINE NEED THE PLANT?

Russia has been pummeling Ukraine's energy infrastructure for months and some areas have had blackouts during winter.

In recent ⁠months, Russia has sharply increased both the scale and intensity of its attacks on Ukraine's energy sector, plunging entire regions into darkness.

Analysts say Ukraine's generation capacity deficit is about 4 gigawatts, or the equivalent of four Zaporizhzhia reactors.

Kharchenko says it would take Ukraine five to seven years to build the generating capacity to compensate for the loss of the Zaporizhzhia plant.

Kharchenko said that if Kyiv regained control of the plant, it would take at least two to three years to understand what condition it was in and another three years to restore the equipment and return it to full operations.

Both Ukrainian state nuclear operator Energoatom and Kharchenko said that Ukraine did not know the real condition of the nuclear power plant today.

WHAT ABOUT COOLING FUEL AT THE PLANT?

In the long term, there is the unresolved problem of the lack of water resources to cool the reactors after the vast Kakhovka hydro-electric dam was blown up in 2023, destroying the reservoir that supplied water to the plant.

Besides the reactors, there are also spent fuel pools at each reactor site used to cool down used nuclear fuel. Without water supply to the pools, the water evaporates and the temperatures increase, risking fire.

An emission of hydrogen from a spent fuel pool caused an explosion in Japan's Fukushima nuclear disaster in ‌2011.

Energoatom said the level of the Zaporizhzhia power plant cooling pond had dropped by more than 15%, or 3 meters, since the destruction of the dam, and continued to fall.

Ukrainian officials previously said the available water reserves may be sufficient to operate one or, at most, two nuclear reactors.


Egypt, Trump Reaffirm Strategic Alliance in 2025 amid Regional Turmoil

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi meets President Donald Trump ahead of a world leaders' summit on ending the Gaza war, in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, October 13, 2025. (Reuters)
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi meets President Donald Trump ahead of a world leaders' summit on ending the Gaza war, in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, October 13, 2025. (Reuters)
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Egypt, Trump Reaffirm Strategic Alliance in 2025 amid Regional Turmoil

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi meets President Donald Trump ahead of a world leaders' summit on ending the Gaza war, in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, October 13, 2025. (Reuters)
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi meets President Donald Trump ahead of a world leaders' summit on ending the Gaza war, in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, October 13, 2025. (Reuters)

After months of speculation over the trajectory of Egyptian-US relations, fueled by persistent talk of strain and an impending rift, a high-level meeting between President Donald Trump and President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in Sharm el-Sheikh reaffirmed the resilience of the strategic alliance between Cairo and Washington, even as the region remains in turmoil.

The meeting followed a turbulent period marked by Trump’s adoption of a proposal to relocate Gaza’s population, an idea firmly rejected by Sisi and one that prompted warnings of a diplomatic crisis between the two longtime allies.

The subsequent signing of a Gaza peace agreement in Sharm el-Sheikh sent a clear signal that, despite sharp disagreements over policy, the foundations of the bilateral relationship remain intact.

Early in Trump’s second term, media reports said Sisi had scrapped plans to visit Washington. As the year draws to a close, speculation has said that the visit may happen. Trump has acknowledged Sisi as a friend and said he would be happy to meet him as well.

Trump’s election victory late last year raised Egyptian hopes of strengthening the strategic partnership. Sisi voiced that expectation in a congratulatory post on X, stating that he looked forward to working together with Trump to achieve peace, preserve regional peace and stability, and strengthen the strategic partnership.

Those hopes were tested when Trump floated a plan to “clean out Gaza” and relocate its residents to Egypt and Jordan. Cairo rejected the idea outright, mobilized international opposition, unveiled an alternative plan for Gaza’s reconstruction and hosted an emergency summit on the issue in March.

Limited public engagement

David Butter, a research fellow in the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, noted that the striking feature of Egypt-US ties over the past year has been their low public profile.

Aside from Trump’s appearance in Sharm el-Sheikh, there was not much happening in the open, he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Amr Hamzawy, an Egyptian political scientist and director of the Middle East program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, described the first year of Trump’s second term as difficult for bilateral relations.

He said it began with talk of displacement and a “Middle East Riviera” in Gaza, but Egyptian diplomacy succeeded in shifting the trajectory.

Trump’s peace plan, he said, ultimately signaled rejection of displacement and spoke of security and political tracks for Gaza and a broader political process for the Palestinian issue, though details remain unclear.

Hamzawy added that the year opened from a tough starting point that followed what he called President Joe Biden’s hesitant stance on Gaza, when displacement was first discussed.

After nearly a year of Egyptian political and diplomatic effort, he said, displacement dropped from Washington’s agenda, even if it remains a risk that cannot be ignored.

Historically, Egypt has been a pivotal state for US national security, given its geography, demographic weight and diplomatic role, according to a recent report by the Congressional Research Service.

Gaza, the main test

The Gaza war shaped Egyptian-US relations during Trump’s first year back in office. Washington backed Egyptian-Qatari mediation to halt the war. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio thanked Cairo after a truce was reached between Israel and Hamas in January.

When hostilities resumed, however, Egypt faced complex diplomatic choices with both Washington and Israel. It rejected Trump’s call to resettle Gaza’s population, while its reconstruction plan failed to gain US or Israeli acceptance.

Cairo also drew criticism from Trump for declining to join US strikes against Yemen’s Houthis, the Congressional Research Service (CRS) revealed.

Butter noted that ties with the Trump administration were strained over Gaza after Sisi canceled a Washington visit early in the year, following Trump’s “Middle East Riviera” remarks, which left contacts at a minimum.

He said Trump’s Sharm el-Sheikh visit, the signing of the Gaza agreement and the celebration of his plan’s success offered a chance to reset relations. Egypt, he added, has become indispensable to Trump’s administration in Gaza.

Hamzawy said Gaza dominated the first year of Trump’s term, giving Egypt a chance to restore its standing with US and European decision-makers as a key mediator. Cairo put its vision on the table, he said, shifting US thinking toward parallel security and political tracks and from talk of disarmament to limiting weapons.

Throughout the year, Egypt publicly counted on Trump to end the Gaza war. In July, Sisi urged him in a televised address to press for a halt, saying Trump was capable of doing so.

Analysts Daniel Byman and Jon Alterman wrote in Foreign Policy that Egypt is indispensable to international responses to the Gaza war, even if it remains a difficult partner for Washington and Israel. The conflict, they said, restored diplomatic focus on Egypt and strengthened its leverage.

Sara Kira, director of the European North African Center for Research, said relations in Trump’s second term differ from his first. The earlier term saw broad alignment and personal warmth from Trump, particularly on counterterrorism, she said. The second term has been marked by divergence.

That surfaced in April when Trump called for free passage for US commercial and military vessels through the Suez Canal in exchange for US efforts to protect the waterway.

Positive signals despite differences

Despite disagreements over Gaza, there were positive signs elsewhere. Early in the year, the US State Department froze new funding for most aid programs worldwide, exempting humanitarian food programs and military aid to Israel and Egypt.

Washington did not include Egypt on a travel ban list issued in June. Trump said Egypt was a country with which the United States dealt closely and that things there were under control. Egypt was also spared higher US tariffs. Cairo has repeatedly stressed the depth and resilience of the strategic relationship.

Kira said Egypt exerted maximum pressure to achieve peace and stop the Gaza war, eventually convincing Washington of its approach and reaching a peace agreement in Sharm el-Sheikh. She said Egypt acted pragmatically and astutely, reading Trump’s personality and US interests.

As talks on the second phase of the Gaza agreement stall, Egypt continues to rely on the Trump administration to advance its plan. Cairo remains in contact with Washington and is working with it to prepare a donor conference for Gaza’s reconstruction, which has yet to receive sufficient momentum from the Trump administration.

The dialogue extends beyond Gaza to Libya, Sudan, Lebanon and Iran, as well as water security, led by Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which Egypt fears could affect its Nile water share.

GERD

In mid-June, Trump stirred controversy in Egypt when he wrote on Truth Social that the United States had “stupidly” funded the dam Ethiopia built on the Blue Nile, triggering a severe diplomatic crisis with Egypt.

In August, the White House released a list of Trump’s foreign policy achievements, which included a purported agreement between Egypt and Ethiopia over the dam.

Trump has repeatedly spoken of his administration’s efforts to resolve the dispute, but those claims have yet to translate into concrete action.

Hamzawy said there is an opportunity for Washington to mediate and revive an agreement reached near the end of Trump’s first term.

Charles Dunne of the Arab Center Washington DC wrote recently that Trump’s stance may please Cairo but could also produce adverse outcomes if Washington does not assume a mediation role.

The United States hosted talks with the World Bank in 2020 during Trump’s first term, but they failed after Ethiopia refused to sign the draft agreement.

Military ties endure

Military cooperation continued largely as usual. Since 1946, the United States has provided Egypt with about $90 billion in aid, with a sharp increase after 1979, which successive administrations have framed as an investment in regional stability, according to the CRS.

For more than a decade, Congress has imposed human rights conditions on part of Egypt’s aid.

Between fiscal years 2020 and 2023, the Biden administration and Congress withheld approximately $750 million in military funding. Trump’s technical annex to the proposed fiscal 2026 budget seeks $1.3 billion in military assistance for Egypt without conditions, the CRS said.

Hamzawy said the administration is far from imposing conditionality, noting that relations rest on mutual interests between a major power and a positively influential middle power.

Since the Gaza war, the Biden and Trump administrations have accelerated US arms sales to Egypt. The State Department notified Congress of military sales totaling $7.3 billion. In July, the Pentagon announced that the State Department had approved the sale of an advanced air defense missile system to Egypt, valued at approximately $4.67 billion. Egypt also hosted the Bright Star military exercises in September.

Kira said ties with Washington are driven by interests and that Cairo has positioned itself as a core regional player.

Hamzawy said Egypt occupies a central place in US Middle East thinking, as Washington needs a spectrum of allies, with Egypt at the heart of that network.


Why Metal Prices are Soaring to Record Highs

A salesman displays gold chains at an Indian jewelry store in September. Idrees MOHAMMED / AFP
A salesman displays gold chains at an Indian jewelry store in September. Idrees MOHAMMED / AFP
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Why Metal Prices are Soaring to Record Highs

A salesman displays gold chains at an Indian jewelry store in September. Idrees MOHAMMED / AFP
A salesman displays gold chains at an Indian jewelry store in September. Idrees MOHAMMED / AFP

Precious and industrial metals are surging to record highs as the year ends, driven by economic and geopolitical uncertainty, robust industrial demand and, in some cases, tight supply.

Below AFP examines the reasons for the surge in demand.

- Safe havens -

Gold and silver are traditionally seen as safe-haven assets, and demand has soared amid mounting geopolitical tensions, from US President Donald Trump's tariffs onslaught to wars in Ukraine and Gaza, as well as recent pressure by Washington on Caracas.

Investors are also uneasy about rising public debt in major economies and the risk of a bubble in the artificial intelligence sector.

These uncertainties are driving up gold and silver, with other metals now starting to see the impact as investors seek to diversify their portfolios, explained John Plassard, an analyst at Cite Gestion Private Bank.

"Metal is once again becoming insurance rather than just a speculative asset," he told AFP.

- A weak dollar -

Traditional safe havens like the dollar and US Treasuries have become less attractive this year.

Uncertainty around Trump's presidency and the prospect of further Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, have weakened the dollar, reducing its appeal to investors.

As a result, many investors are turning to gold and silver.

Gold has climbed more than 70 percent this year and passed $4,500 an ounce for the first time on Wednesday, while silver reached a record high of $72 an ounce, with prices up about 2.5 times since January.

A weak dollar is also boosting industrial metals, since commodities priced in dollars become cheaper for buyers when the currency falls.

- Fresh demand -

Industrial demand has surged in recent months, driven by the rise of artificial intelligence and the energy transition.

Copper, used for solar panels, wind turbines, electric vehicle batteries and data centers, has seen strong gains as a result.

Prices hit a record on Wednesday, topping $12,000 a ton, helped further by China, the world's largest copper consumer, announcing new measures to boost demand.

Aluminium, a cheaper alternative to copper, and silver are also benefiting from the AI boom and the shift to renewable energy.

Platinum and palladium, used in car catalytic converters, have also risen, reaching a record high and a three-year high respectively, after the European Union decided to allow sales of new internal combustion vehicles beyond 2035.

- Tight supply -

Copper prices have been lifted this year by fears of US tariffs, prompting companies to stockpile ahead of their introduction, with duties imposed on semi-finished products and potentially extending to refined copper.

Supply risks from disruptions at mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Chile and Indonesia have added to the price surge.

Physical markets for silver, platinum, and aluminium are also tight.

According to Ole Hansen, an analyst at Saxo Bank, thin holiday trading, which increases volatility, and investor fear of missing out have further amplified the rise at the end of the year.