Nile Dam Dispute Escalates Ahead of UN Security Council Debate

Ethiopia insists on filling the dam reservoir as a first stage in July without regarding Egypt and Sudan’s objections (AFP)
Ethiopia insists on filling the dam reservoir as a first stage in July without regarding Egypt and Sudan’s objections (AFP)
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Nile Dam Dispute Escalates Ahead of UN Security Council Debate

Ethiopia insists on filling the dam reservoir as a first stage in July without regarding Egypt and Sudan’s objections (AFP)
Ethiopia insists on filling the dam reservoir as a first stage in July without regarding Egypt and Sudan’s objections (AFP)

A dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia over the filling and operation of the $4 billion Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) escalated on Monday.

Cairo threatened “an open and clear procedure,” in case the UN Security Council fails to return Ethiopia to the negotiating table.

Ethiopia, for its part, began filling the dam reservoir unilaterally.

Addis Ababa stressed that “no internal or external force can prevent it from moving on with the filling process early July.”

Egypt referred the issue to the UN Security Council after Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan failed again last week to reach an agreement on the rules for filling and operating the dam.

Ethiopia insists on filling the dam reservoir as a first stage in July, with about five billion cubic meters, without regard to Egypt and Sudan’s objections.

Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry challenged on Monday Ethiopia to “resume negotiations immediately since it declared abiding by its international obligations not to fill it unilaterally.”

Ethiopian Foreign Minister, for his part, accused Egypt of escaping from negotiations and resorting to the Security Council.

Shoukry affirmed his country has been engaged, in a spirit of good faith, for almost a decade, in innumerable rounds of negotiations on GERD to meet all parties’ interests.

Ethiopia refused to sign a final agreement on the rules of filling and operating the dam earlier this year, under the auspice of the US Treasury and the World Bank.

“The UN Security Council shall shoulder its responsibility to prevent any harm to international peace and security by preventing Ethiopia from taking any unilateral action that negatively affects Egypt’s water rights,” he stressed in a statement.

The FM warned that filling the reservoir without an accord would violate the 2015 declaration of principles governing their talks — and rule out a return to negotiations.

Shoukry affirmed that the Egyptian government has not threatened military action, has sought a political solution and has worked to convince the Egyptian public that Ethiopia has a right to build the dam to meet its development goals.

“Egypt has never, never over the past six years even made an indirect reference to such possibilities.”

Yet, he further noted that if the Security Council fails to bring Ethiopia back into negotiations and the filling begins, Egypt “will find itself in a situation it has to deal with.”

“When that time comes, we will be very vocal and clear in what action we will take,” he stressed.

Starting to fill the reservoir now, he said, would demonstrate “a desire to control the flow of the water and have effective sole determination” of the water that reaches Egypt and Sudan.

He called on the US and other Security Council members, as well as African nations, to help reach a deal that “takes into account the interests of all three countries.”



Hamas Comes Under Pressure in Lebanon

The Supreme Defense Council, chaired by President Joseph Aoun, issued a recommendation to the government to warn Hamas against using Lebanese territory for any actions that undermine national security (Lebanese Presidency)
The Supreme Defense Council, chaired by President Joseph Aoun, issued a recommendation to the government to warn Hamas against using Lebanese territory for any actions that undermine national security (Lebanese Presidency)
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Hamas Comes Under Pressure in Lebanon

The Supreme Defense Council, chaired by President Joseph Aoun, issued a recommendation to the government to warn Hamas against using Lebanese territory for any actions that undermine national security (Lebanese Presidency)
The Supreme Defense Council, chaired by President Joseph Aoun, issued a recommendation to the government to warn Hamas against using Lebanese territory for any actions that undermine national security (Lebanese Presidency)

Relations between Hamas and the Lebanese state have entered a critical phase not seen since the country’s civil war era. In a rare and direct move, Lebanon’s Supreme Defense Council on Friday named Hamas in an official warning, cautioning the group against using Lebanese territories to conduct activities that threaten national security.

The warning follows rocket attacks in March, allegedly launched by Hamas operatives toward Israel from southern Lebanon, and signals a turning point in Beirut’s handling of the longstanding issue of Palestinian arms.

The issue is expected to dominate discussions during the upcoming visit of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to Beirut on May 21. Lebanese authorities are reportedly preparing to demand that Hamas hand over individuals implicated in the rocket attacks.

Hamas officials in Lebanon declined to comment immediately, but sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that an official statement from the group is forthcoming.

Last month, the Lebanese army said it had identified those responsible for the March 22 and 28 rocket launches, revealing a cell composed of Lebanese and Palestinian nationals. Subsequent raids led to several arrests and the seizure of equipment used in the attacks. Security sources later confirmed the detention of three Hamas members - two Palestinians and one Lebanese.

Analysts and insiders believe Hamas now finds itself increasingly isolated in Lebanon. According to Palestinian political analyst Hisham Debassy, the group has little choice but to comply with Lebanese demands, including potentially disarming.

“The Defense Council’s position marks a serious and strategic shift,” said Debassy. “It sends a strong political message not just to Hamas but to any non-state actor operating militarily on Lebanese soil.”

Debassy described Hamas as being at a crossroads. “Either it cooperates with Lebanese authorities by handing over wanted individuals and signaling respect for state sovereignty, or it continues down a path of confrontation, an option that carries significant political and security costs.”

He noted that Hamas currently lacks the internal cohesion and public support to take a defiant stance. Internal divisions have grown between factions aligned with Iran and others favoring political reintegration within the broader Muslim Brotherhood framework.

Political analyst Dr. Qassem Qassir said Hamas’ leadership, based largely in Qatar, remains mindful of Lebanon’s fragile security. “Hamas doesn’t want to endanger Lebanon,” he said, adding that the group is likely to act cautiously given the broader regional context.

Meanwhile, Abbas’ visit is seen as an opportunity to reshape Palestinian-Lebanese relations and advance state authority in Palestinian camps. Lebanese officials are seeking a roadmap, backed by the Palestinian Authority, that could lead to the phased dismantling of weapons in refugee camps, following similar efforts targeting pro-Syrian Palestinian factions in the Bekaa and Naameh regions.

Hamas’ presence in Lebanon had traditionally been limited to social and political activities. But its military footprint began to emerge after a 2022 explosion in the Burj al-Shemali camp. Since the Gaza war erupted in October 2023, Hamas’s armed wing has become more active in southern Lebanon, coordinating with Hezbollah in launching attacks on Israel, further complicating its position with Lebanese authorities.