Tensions High in Baghdad after Raids against Kataib Hezbollah

Iraqi security forces stand guard near the gates of the heavily fortified Green Zone in Baghdad, Iraq, March 31, 2016. (Reuters)
Iraqi security forces stand guard near the gates of the heavily fortified Green Zone in Baghdad, Iraq, March 31, 2016. (Reuters)
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Tensions High in Baghdad after Raids against Kataib Hezbollah

Iraqi security forces stand guard near the gates of the heavily fortified Green Zone in Baghdad, Iraq, March 31, 2016. (Reuters)
Iraqi security forces stand guard near the gates of the heavily fortified Green Zone in Baghdad, Iraq, March 31, 2016. (Reuters)

Tensions were high in the Iraqi capital Baghdad after security forces raided the headquarters of the pro-Iran Kataib Hezbollah faction, arresting 14 members, including an Iranian rockets expert.

Observers have speculated that the tensions will continue to rise between the government, which ordered the raid, and the armed factions that oppose Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi.

The raid was the most brazen action by Iraqi forces against a major Iran-backed militia in years. The Kataib Hezbollah group is accused by US officials accuse of firing rockets at bases hosting US troops and other facilities in Iraq.

It signaled that Kadhimi, whose government is negotiating Iraq’s security, political and economic ties with Washington, intends to fulfill pledges to rein in militia groups that have attacked US installations.

The move did not sit well with Qais Khazali, leader of the Asaib Ahl al-Haq militant group, who “advised” Kadhimi against becoming involved in tensions between the factions and American forces.

In a televised address to the premier, he said that rocket attacks that targeted Baghdad airport and the Green Zone, which houses foreign embassies, was not directed against Iraq or Iraqis, but at “American targets.”

“Resistance factions have the right to resist occupiers according to state and religious laws,” he declared.

Moreover, he warned that the arrest of members of the pro-Iran Popular Mobilization Forces by the counter-terrorism units “will pave the way for widespread chaos”, describing the raid against the Kataib Hezbollah as a “dangerous precedent”.

“Neither the prime minister, nor anyone else can stand against the PMF members, who are demanding sovereignty. The counter-terrorism agency is a national agency that had fought alongside the PMF against terrorism. The issue should have been resolved with the PMF chief,” suggested Khazali, who boasts 15 lawmakers at parliament.

Observers said that Khazali’s statement has outlined the tensions between the government and the so-called “resistance axis” that is loyal to Iran.

Armed groups expert Hisham al-Hashemi told Asharq Al-Awsat that the “Katyusha cells” are affiliated with the resistance axis. These factions have undergone changes in recent months and have started to “rebel” against the state, he remarked.

They then started to challenge it and are now confronting it, he noted. The rebellion started at the beginning of the year after Washington killed Iranian Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani and PMF deputy chief Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis near Baghdad airport.

He revealed that the government raid on Friday aborted a planned attack with 23 rockets against the Green Zone.

He said the government’s operations will only temporarily deter the “Katyusha cells”, citing Khazali’s remarks that he will not allow anyone to thwart these factions.

Head of the Center for Political Thinking in Iraq, Ihssan Shmary warned that the Katyusha rocket attacks are a threat to Iraq’s national security and western interests in the country.

He told Asharq Al-Awsat that the attacks will negatively impact Iraq’s foreign image and undermine the PM’s efforts to limit the possession of arms in the country in the hands of the state.

“I believe that the attacks will not stop, especially since the armed factions are starting to greatly up their rhetoric,” he added. The situation is ultimately up to how Kadhimi manages the situation.

He predicted that the PM will face “major challenges, significantly since the armed factions have political arms inside parliament and can therefore, impede government work.”



Hezbollah Reiterates Its Refusal to Enter the War

Speaker Nabih Berri (dpa) 
Speaker Nabih Berri (dpa) 
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Hezbollah Reiterates Its Refusal to Enter the War

Speaker Nabih Berri (dpa) 
Speaker Nabih Berri (dpa) 

The US military intervention alongside Israel in its war against Iran has sparked growing concern in Lebanon, mixing fear with uncertainty about what lies ahead, especially as the region awaits Iran’s response.

Lebanese citizens are questioning whether Iran will retaliate solely against Israel or also strike nearby US military bases. Some speculate that Iran might avoid targeting American bases in neighboring countries that have shown solidarity with Tehran, as maintaining these relationships could help Iran push for an end to the war and a return to US-Iranian dialogue.

Despite mounting regional tension, Hezbollah continues to avoid direct military involvement. This position aligns with the recent statements of Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, who affirmed that Hezbollah will not intervene.

While some interpreted Hezbollah Deputy Secretary-General Naim Qassem’s pledge of “full support to Iran in any way we deem appropriate” as a divergence, sources say the party is fully aligned with Berri.

Berri maintains that dialogue between Washington and Tehran is the only path to halting the conflict and addressing Iran’s nuclear file. His stance is echoed by Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, and other political actors.

US envoy Thomas Barrack, currently stationed in Türkiye, reportedly discussed these matters with Lebanese officials and promised to return in three weeks, hoping for progress toward a ceasefire and the implementation of UN Resolution 1701, which calls for Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon and for weapons to be under the exclusive control of the Lebanese state.

According to sources, the US escalation has prompted behind-the-scenes consultations between Hezbollah, the Amal Movement, and Lebanese state officials. These talks aim to evaluate the situation and ensure Lebanon remains out of the regional conflict.

Hezbollah remains firm in its decision not to engage militarily, refusing to offer Israel a pretext to expand the war into Lebanon. Despite internal solidarity with Iran, Hezbollah is keenly aware that joining the war would not shift the military balance, which now involves advanced weaponry beyond its capabilities.

The sources added that the party is also mindful of Lebanese Shiite public sentiment, which favors stability over another devastating war. Memories of past conflicts, including the toll of Hezbollah’s support for Gaza, linger. Fears of displacement and economic ruin are driving many in Beirut’s southern suburbs to sell their homes, often at steep losses.