Hottest Commodity in Lebanon's Economic Chaos: The US Dollar

In this April 28, 2020 file photo, a cell phone shop owner wears gloves as he counts US dollars, in Beirut, Lebanon. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla, File)
In this April 28, 2020 file photo, a cell phone shop owner wears gloves as he counts US dollars, in Beirut, Lebanon. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla, File)
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Hottest Commodity in Lebanon's Economic Chaos: The US Dollar

In this April 28, 2020 file photo, a cell phone shop owner wears gloves as he counts US dollars, in Beirut, Lebanon. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla, File)
In this April 28, 2020 file photo, a cell phone shop owner wears gloves as he counts US dollars, in Beirut, Lebanon. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla, File)

The lines snaked around the block. Then they swelled to fill the whole street, before they turned into a raucous mob of men shoving to the front of the line. There at the exchange bureau, they could buy rationed dollars, the hottest commodity in Lebanon.

The small Mediterranean country´s financial meltdown has thrown Lebanese into a frantic search for dollars as their local currency's value evaporates. To get the precious hard currency, they must navigate labyrinthine regulations, exploiting any loopholes they can to rescue their earnings.

Every transaction, from doctor fees to store purchases to rent, is negotiated day by day, juggling the tumbling Lebanese pound and multiple, changing dollar exchange rates. Those who can are snapping up luxury goods or real estate, trying to use their dollars trapped in bank accounts frozen by the cash-strapped authorities.

The turmoil is deepening resentment of the political elite and the once flourishing banking system - and fueling desperation.

"They are going to crash us into a wall," Chris Georgian, a 25-year-old student, said, trying to buy $600 at an exchange bureau to send for his university fees in Armenia.

Last week, a 61-year-old man apparently distraught over his economic situation shot and killed himself on a Beirut commercial street, one of multiple suicides during the crisis.

Despite survival skills honed by political tension and wars, nothing prepared Lebanese for having to line up to buy money.

During the 15-year civil war and Israel´s invasion and occupation of the south and Beirut, there may have been queues for water or bread, but Lebanon was always flush with dollars.

Since 1997, the local currency, the pound, was pegged at around 1,500 to the dollar, and Lebanese used the two interchangeably.

That stability was built on what experts say was essentially a Ponzi scheme that let banks and the elite profit while allowing Lebanese to live beyond their means.

Successive governments borrowed from private banks to finance massive public debt and pay for vital imports like fuel - but also luxury goods - eating into depositors´ dollar accounts. Most of those deposits were from Lebanese expats attracted by high-interest rates.

It collapsed when remittances and direct foreign investments plunged in recent years.

In the ensuing liquidity crunch, the pound has lost nearly 85% of its value. Tens of thousands have fallen into poverty, wages are worth only a fraction of what they once were, and prices are skyrocketing - stripping Lebanon of its trademark joie de vivre and vibrancy.

Chain retailers have shut down, unable to import or price goods with the fluctuating rates. Some vendors have either closed or only take payment in dollars.

Dollar accounts have been frozen, and those trapped dollars have become "Monopoly money" with no value outside Lebanon, said Dan Azzi, a former banker and analyst. He coined a name for that currency, the "Lollar" or Lebanese dollar.

People began hoarding cash dollars, getting relatives living abroad to transfer dollars, which - unlike frozen local accounts - can be withdrawn from the bank.

Some sell gold for dollars. "We buy gold at the highest price $39-$55 and in cash," reads one jeweler´s marketing telephone message.

The peg remains in place officially, even as the black market price of a dollar has spiraled to at least five times that. Meanwhile, authorities imposed rationing on exchange bureaus, limiting how many dollars a person can buy and setting a rate higher than the peg but lower than the black market.

That fanned the raucous lines. Some bought dollars only to sell them on the black market. New phone apps cropped up to keep track of multiple rates.

"Isn´t all this humiliating?" said Elie, a security guard keeping order at an exchange bureau. "When senior officials were making money, we were getting some of it. Now they aren´t anymore, so they deny it to us," he said, declining to give his last name because of his job.

Many scramble for ways to use their trapped "Lollars," fearing they could eventually lose them completely.

Lines formed outside luxury retailer Louis Vuitton because it was selling at a rate half the black market. Others use stuck dollars to settle bank loans, still valued at the official peg. Azzi estimates loans up to $15 billion have been paid already.

Ghassan Frem, a dentist, paid a friend´s loan of over $30,000 with his "Lollars." She paid him the money in an account abroad. It is a win-win: He uses his "dead" dollars, and the friend settles her loan at a discount.

Meanwhile, Frem bought $950-worth of new air conditioners on his credit card. The trick is: He pays his credit card bill at the official rate with pounds he bought on the black market for far fewer dollars.

Many use this loophole, buying merchandise or doing renovations whether they need it or not, to rescue trapped dollars.

"Anyone who can get back at the banks is doing some good," Frem said. "We do to them what they have done to us."

On social media, some proposed organizing a peer-to-peer platform to avoid using banks.

Meanwhile, real estate transactions jumped more than 16% in the first quarter of 2020, according to the General Directorate of Land Registry. One of Lebanon´s largest real estate companies, Solidere, reported a profit for the first time since 2018.

For his dental clinic, Frem negotiates purchasing supplies item by item, hour by hour. One Monday afternoon, he ordered a product and by the time it arrived the next day, the dollar price had gone up 20%. "The delivery guy got a text message with the new price when he arrived," Frem said.

For Georgian, the student, his education is on the line.

A third-year psychology student in a Yerevan university, he returned to Lebanon because of coronavirus. With his parents´ dollars locked up, he has to chase dollars to finance his return.

At the exchange office, he asked the guard to walk him through the documents he needed. Under new rules to curb profiteering, you must prove you need rationed dollars to pay education fees, rent, medical fees or salaries for foreign workers. No one gets cash - the dollars you buy are sent directly to the destination.

Still, Georgian was relieved. His school fees are $600, and the cost for that at the exchange is about half what it would be on the black market, saving him enough to live for months in Yerevan.

"If the dollar keeps rising, I will never go back," he said. "I will lose my education."

Georgian questioned his parents´ decision to remain in Lebanon despite constant complaints of corruption.

"They said they didn´t think it will be this bad," he said, shaking his head.



Yellen Says Iran’s Actions Could Cause Global ‘Economic Spillovers’, Warns of More Sanctions

 US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen speaks during a press conference amid the IMF-World Bank Group spring meetings, at the Treasury Department in Washington, DC on April 16, 2024. (AFP)
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen speaks during a press conference amid the IMF-World Bank Group spring meetings, at the Treasury Department in Washington, DC on April 16, 2024. (AFP)
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Yellen Says Iran’s Actions Could Cause Global ‘Economic Spillovers’, Warns of More Sanctions

 US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen speaks during a press conference amid the IMF-World Bank Group spring meetings, at the Treasury Department in Washington, DC on April 16, 2024. (AFP)
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen speaks during a press conference amid the IMF-World Bank Group spring meetings, at the Treasury Department in Washington, DC on April 16, 2024. (AFP)

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned Tuesday of potential global economic damage from rising tensions in the Middle East and pledged that the US and its allies won't hesitate to use their sanctions powers to address Iran's "malign and destabilizing activity" in the region.

She made her remarks ahead of this week's spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, saying Iran's weekend missile attack on Israel "underscores the importance of Treasury’s work to use our economic tools to counter Iran’s malign activity."

She added: "From this weekend’s attack to the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, Iran’s actions threaten the region’s stability and could cause economic spillovers."

Iran's missile attack on Israel early Sunday came in response to what it says was an Israeli strike on Iran's consulate in Syria earlier this month. Israel’s military chief said Monday that his country will respond to the attack, while world leaders caution against retaliation, trying to avoid a spiral of violence.

As the IMF and its fellow lending agency, the World Bank, hold their spring meetings this week, high on the agenda are the fast-rising tensions between Iran and Israel and what escalation could spell for the global economy.

Israel and Iran have been on a collision course throughout Israel’s six-month war against Hamas in Gaza. The war erupted after two armed groups backed by Iran led an attack on Oct. 7 that killed 1,200 people in Israel and kidnapped 250 others. An Israeli offensive in Gaza has caused widespread devastation and killed over 33,000 people, according to local health officials.

"We’ve targeted over 500 individuals and entities connected to terrorism and terrorist financing by the Iranian regime and its proxies since the start of the Administration," Yellen said, citing sanctions against Iran’s drone and missile programs, Hamas, the Houthi militias, Hezbollah, and other Iraqi militia groups.

"Treasury will not hesitate to work with our allies to use our sanctions authority to continue disrupting the Iranian regime’s malign and destabilizing activity," she said. "I fully expect we will take additional sanctions actions against Iran in the coming days."

The annual gathering will take place as other ongoing conflicts, including Russia's invasion of Ukraine, threaten global financial stability.

Yellen in February offered her strongest public support yet for the idea of liquidating roughly $300 billion in frozen Russian Central Bank assets and using them for Ukraine’s long-term reconstruction.

She said Tuesday that the US is "continuing to work with our international partners to unlock the economic value of immobilized Russian sovereign assets and ensure that Russia pays for the damage it has caused."

Yellen added that she will meet with Group of Seven finance leaders Wednesday to continue discussions on the topic and will look at "a series of possibilities, ranging from actually seizing the assets to using them as collateral."

Another major issue for this year's meetings on the US side, Yellen said, will be ongoing conversations about Chinese industrial policy that poses a threat to US jobs and the global economy. She traveled to Guangzhou and Beijing earlier this month, to hold "difficult conversations" with counterparts over what she describes as China's overcapacity in its wave of low-priced Chinese green tech exports that could overwhelm factories in the US and make it impossible to compete.

Yellen said she plans to meet later this week with her Chinese counterparts for a fourth meeting of the US-China Economic and Financial Working Groups, "to share information, identify potential areas of cooperation, and, when we disagree, frankly communicate concerns."

US Treasury and China’s Ministry of Finance launched the economic working groups in an effort to ease tensions and deepen ties between the nations.


Saudi Arabia, Pakistan Seek to Boost Trade, Support Investors

Saudi Minister of Foreign Affairs Prince Faisal bin Farhan bin Abdullah and his Pakistani counterpart Ishaq Dar chair the Saudi-Pakistani Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC)  in Islamabad on Tuesday. (SPA)
Saudi Minister of Foreign Affairs Prince Faisal bin Farhan bin Abdullah and his Pakistani counterpart Ishaq Dar chair the Saudi-Pakistani Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) in Islamabad on Tuesday. (SPA)
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Saudi Arabia, Pakistan Seek to Boost Trade, Support Investors

Saudi Minister of Foreign Affairs Prince Faisal bin Farhan bin Abdullah and his Pakistani counterpart Ishaq Dar chair the Saudi-Pakistani Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC)  in Islamabad on Tuesday. (SPA)
Saudi Minister of Foreign Affairs Prince Faisal bin Farhan bin Abdullah and his Pakistani counterpart Ishaq Dar chair the Saudi-Pakistani Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) in Islamabad on Tuesday. (SPA)

Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are seeking to bolster economic cooperation, boost the trade exchange between them and support investors to expand their work in the two countries.

Saudi Minister of Foreign Affairs Prince Faisal bin Farhan bin Abdullah and his Pakistani counterpart Ishaq Dar chaired in Islamabad on Tuesday the Saudi-Pakistani Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC).

A high-level Saudi delegation attended the meeting. It included Minister of Environment, Water, and Agriculture Abdulrahman Al-Fadley, Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Bandar Al-Khorayef, Advisor to the Royal Court Mohammad Al-Tuwaijri, Assistant Minister of Investment Ibrahim Al-Mubarak, as well as a number of senior officials from the ministries of foreign affairs and energy, Public Investment Fund, and the Saudi Fund for Development.

Prince Faisal praised the deep-rooted Saudi-Pakistani relations, stressing that the Saudi delegation’s visit complements the meeting held by Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud, Crown Prince and Prime Minister of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and Prime Minister of Pakistan Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif in Makkah.

Prince Faisal is on an official visit to Pakistan where he met with President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif.


Saudi Real Estate Experts Forecast Surge in Residential Property Demand

Al-Fursan Suburb... One of the housing projects in the northeast of the Saudi capital, Riyadh (National Housing Company)
Al-Fursan Suburb... One of the housing projects in the northeast of the Saudi capital, Riyadh (National Housing Company)
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Saudi Real Estate Experts Forecast Surge in Residential Property Demand

Al-Fursan Suburb... One of the housing projects in the northeast of the Saudi capital, Riyadh (National Housing Company)
Al-Fursan Suburb... One of the housing projects in the northeast of the Saudi capital, Riyadh (National Housing Company)

Saudi Arabia’s property prices rose by 0.6% in the first quarter of this year, mainly due to a 1.2% increase in residential property prices. Government programs are helping keep the market stable, and experts predict higher demand for homes soon.

The “Sakani” program, run by the Ministry of Municipal and Rural Affairs and Housing, assisted 32,000 Saudi families in the first quarter, a 15% increase from last year.

Residential property prices went up by 1.2% annually, driven by a similar increase in land prices. Apartments saw an 0.8% increase, but residential buildings, villas, and houses experienced slight decreases.

Commercial property prices dropped by 0.5%, influenced by lower land and exhibition prices. However, prices for commercial buildings remained steady.

Experts note that residential property prices are resilient, thanks to government initiatives. They expect interest rate cuts this year, which could boost the real estate market.

Ahmed Al-Faqih, a real estate engineer and analyst, emphasized that reports from government entities and research companies have consistently shown that the increase in interest rates over the past two years has coincided with rising property prices and transaction values.

“This is driven by several government incentives, including the momentum of major real estate projects injected into Riyadh, which accounts for more than 35% of the real estate market transactions, as well as in Jeddah," Al-Faqih told Asharq Al-Awsat.

He noted that real estate transaction indicators have been on the rise since the fourth quarter of last year, indicating expectations of interest rate cuts multiple times during the current year, which would mean further activity in the real estate market.

According to Al-Faqih, the residential sector has not been significantly affected price-wise and has remained generally resilient, attributed to the supply and demand equation leaning towards increased demand and limited supply.

He mentioned that demand is driven by population growth, migration to major cities, and the possibility of property ownership for holders of distinguished residency.

The Housing Ministry aims to increase home ownership to 70% by 2030 by offering subsidized land and support programs. The market also relies on commercial, industrial, and investment properties.

Regulations like the “Real Estate Contributions” program aim to enhance transparency and protect stakeholders' rights. These efforts are expected to stimulate investments and drive growth in the real estate market.


Saudi Inflation Slows to Lowest Level Since 2021

A Saudi citizen buys sweets from one of the major stores in preparation for Eid al-Fitr (SPA)
A Saudi citizen buys sweets from one of the major stores in preparation for Eid al-Fitr (SPA)
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Saudi Inflation Slows to Lowest Level Since 2021

A Saudi citizen buys sweets from one of the major stores in preparation for Eid al-Fitr (SPA)
A Saudi citizen buys sweets from one of the major stores in preparation for Eid al-Fitr (SPA)

In March, inflation in Saudi Arabia slowed down to its lowest level since 2021, hitting 1.6% annually compared to 1.8% in February.

This drop was mainly due to a slowdown in food and beverage price increases. However, housing rents continued to climb, reaching 10.5%.

In June 2021, inflation peaked at 6.16%, according to data from Saudi Arabia’s General Authority for Statistics (GASTAT).

Among the G20 nations, Saudi Arabia ranks third lowest in inflation rates, trailing behind Switzerland and Italy.

According to the World Bank’s latest report for the Middle East and North Africa, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have managed to keep inflation in check through strict monetary policies and support for food and energy prices.

Recent data from GASTAT shows that housing and utility prices went up by 8.8%, while food and drink prices rose by 0.9%. However, transportation costs fell by 1.8%, and prices for miscellaneous goods and personal services increased by 1.1%.

Experts speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat say the Saudi government's measures have kept inflation lower compared to global economies.

Mohammed Bin Duleim Al-Qahtani, an economist at King Faisal University, pointed out that housing, rent, dining out, and electricity prices still affect inflation.

He believes the economy will grow, preventing major economic downturns over the next couple of years. Al-Qahtani also expected inflation to drop significantly by 2028.

Nasser Al-Quraowi, head of the Saudi Center for Studies and Research, said Saudi Arabia ranks among the top five countries in stable inflation despite global crises.

He emphasized the state’s role in protecting citizens and residents’ living standards, which will remain a priority for inflation control in the future.


NEOM Hosts Global Contractor Forum to Shape Future Projects

With the help of the companies that participated in the forum, the workforce is anticipated to grow to over 200,000 by next year - SPA
With the help of the companies that participated in the forum, the workforce is anticipated to grow to over 200,000 by next year - SPA
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NEOM Hosts Global Contractor Forum to Shape Future Projects

With the help of the companies that participated in the forum, the workforce is anticipated to grow to over 200,000 by next year - SPA
With the help of the companies that participated in the forum, the workforce is anticipated to grow to over 200,000 by next year - SPA

NEOM, the sustainable development taking shape in the northwest of Saudi Arabia, brought together over 100 of the world’s leading construction companies for a two-day industry forum, SPA reported.

The gathering, held in NEOM, showcased on-the-ground construction progress while highlighting future developments as NEOM advances into the next stage of its vast portfolio of projects.
As NEOM’s projects transition into a new phase of execution, the demand for top-tier construction proficiency is vital to deliver some of the most ambitious development projects the world has ever seen. These bold projects include the 170 km long city, THE LINE, currently being built in modular phases, with the first phase welcoming residents in 2030. The forum also emphasized the importance of innovation within the industry and how traditional construction methods will not meet the scale and scope of NEOM. Additionally, on-the-ground progress was showcased throughout NEOM, including construction progress on THE LINE, the Spine, Oxagon, Trojena, and the NEOM International Airport.
The forum opened with an address by the CEO of NEOM, Nadhmi Al-Nasr, stating: "As we go into our busiest ever phase of development, the scale of opportunities across NEOM is monumental. With projects progressing fast across all parts of the region, we are committed to collaborating with globally renowned contractors to achieve the vision of NEOM".
Attendees benefited from insights into the plans and scope of upcoming opportunities. Additionally, they visited project sites to witness first-hand the construction currently taking place, which is already on a massive scale seldom seen anywhere in the world. The event also included one-on-one meetings during which specific business opportunities were discussed as contractors displayed their services and capabilities.
The forum hosted a mix of firms from Saudi Arabia, along with international firms from Asia, Europe, North America, and North Africa. Construction is currently underway throughout all of NEOM, with a construction workforce of over 140,000. With the help of the companies that participated in the forum, the workforce is anticipated to grow to over 200,000 by next year.


World Bank Expects MENA GDP to Rise to 2.7% in 2024 Amid Heightened Uncertainty

MENA’s gross domestic product (GDP) is forecast to rise to 2.7% in 2024, which is a tepid increase from 1.9% in 2023.  (Reuters)
MENA’s gross domestic product (GDP) is forecast to rise to 2.7% in 2024, which is a tepid increase from 1.9% in 2023. (Reuters)
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World Bank Expects MENA GDP to Rise to 2.7% in 2024 Amid Heightened Uncertainty

MENA’s gross domestic product (GDP) is forecast to rise to 2.7% in 2024, which is a tepid increase from 1.9% in 2023.  (Reuters)
MENA’s gross domestic product (GDP) is forecast to rise to 2.7% in 2024, which is a tepid increase from 1.9% in 2023. (Reuters)

The World Bank’s new Middle East and North Africa Economic Update, entitled “Conflict and Debt in the Middle East and North Africa”, shows that lackluster growth, rising indebtedness and heightened uncertainty due to the conflict in the Middle East are impacting economies across the region.

According to the report, MENA economies are expected to return to low growth akin to the decade prior to the pandemic. MENA’s gross domestic product (GDP) is forecast to rise to 2.7% in 2024, which is a tepid increase from 1.9% in 2023.

As in 2023, oil importing and oil exporting countries are likely to grow at less disparate rates than 2022, when higher oil prices boosted growth in oil exporters.

For Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, the 2024 growth uptick reflects expectations of robust non-oil sector activity and fading out of oil production cuts towards the end of the year. GDP growth in almost all oil importing countries is expected to decelerate.

The report looks at the economic impact of the conflict in the Middle East on the region. Economic activity in Gaza has come to a near standstill. The GDP of the Gaza strip dropped by 86% in the last quarter of 2023. The West Bank has plunged into a recession, with simultaneous public and private sector crises. Recent World Bank reports go into further depth on damages to the Gaza Strip and catastrophic impacts on the people of Gaza.

The economic impact of the conflict on the rest of the region has remained relatively contained, but uncertainty has increased. For example, the shipping industry has coped with shocks to maritime transport by rerouting vessels away from the Red Sea, but any prolonged disruptions to routes through the Suez Canal could increase commodity prices regionally and globally.

The report also looks at rising indebtedness in the MENA region. Between 2013 and 2019, the median debt-to-GDP ratio for MENA economies increased by more than 23 percentage points. The pandemic made things worse as declines in revenue, together with pandemic support spending, increased financing needs for many countries.

This rising indebtedness is heavily concentrated in oil-importing economies, which now have a debt-to-GDP ratio 50 percent higher than the global average of emerging markets and developing economies. Approaching 90 percent of GDP in 2023, oil-importing countries in MENA have a debt-to-GDP ratio almost three times higher than that of oil exporting countries in the region.

The report presents evidence that oil-importing countries in MENA have been unable to grow out of debt or inflate their debt away, making fiscal discipline essential to curb indebtedness. Critically, off-budget items which have played a large role in some MENA economies have been to the detriment of debt and fiscal transparency. The challenge for oil exporters is one of economic and fiscal-revenue diversification, given the structural change in global oil markets and the rising demand for renewable sources of energy. Overall, MENA economies need to undertake structural reforms, chief among them transparency, to unlock growth and forge a sustainable path ahead.


Gold Rises After Iran Attacks Israel

Gold bars are displayed at a gold jewelry shop in the northern Indian city of Chandigarh November 4, 2009. REUTERS/Ajay Verma/File Photo
Gold bars are displayed at a gold jewelry shop in the northern Indian city of Chandigarh November 4, 2009. REUTERS/Ajay Verma/File Photo
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Gold Rises After Iran Attacks Israel

Gold bars are displayed at a gold jewelry shop in the northern Indian city of Chandigarh November 4, 2009. REUTERS/Ajay Verma/File Photo
Gold bars are displayed at a gold jewelry shop in the northern Indian city of Chandigarh November 4, 2009. REUTERS/Ajay Verma/File Photo

Gold prices rose on Monday, attracting some safe haven bids, while oil prices were choppy after Iran's retaliatory attack on Israel over the weekend stoked fears of a wider regional conflict and kept traders on edge for what comes next.

US stock futures ticked higher after major indexes ended sharply lower on Friday as results from major US banks failed to impress.

Iran had, late on Saturday, launched explosive drones and missiles at Israel in retaliation for a suspected Israeli attack on its consulate in Syria on April 1, marking its first direct attack on Israeli territory.

The threat of open warfare erupting between the arch Middle East foes and dragging in the United States has left the region on tenterhooks, as US President Joe Biden warned Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu the US will not take part in a counter-offensive against Iran.

Israel said "the campaign is not over yet".

Global markets struggled for direction early in Asia on Monday after the weekend developments in the Middle East, as oil prices edged broadly lower in volatile trade, gold jumped and the dollar held broadly steady.

Gold rose 0.7% to $2,359.92 an ounce, after having scaled a record of $2,431.29 on Friday. The yellow metal has climbed some 14% for the year thus far.

"Everything seems pretty well contained," said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone. "From a very simplistic perspective, the actions from Iran haven't really surprised anyone, they're very much in line with what we were pricing late last week.

"What may be causing a slight move up in the gold price... is the idea that we could see another counter response from Israel, and if that was to happen... that could cause risk (assets) to move down."


Indian Shares Fall as Middle East Tensions Spook Investors

The new logo of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) building is seen in Mumbai, India, July 12, 2023. REUTERS/Francis Mascarenhas/File photo Purchase Licensing Rights
The new logo of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) building is seen in Mumbai, India, July 12, 2023. REUTERS/Francis Mascarenhas/File photo Purchase Licensing Rights
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Indian Shares Fall as Middle East Tensions Spook Investors

The new logo of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) building is seen in Mumbai, India, July 12, 2023. REUTERS/Francis Mascarenhas/File photo Purchase Licensing Rights
The new logo of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) building is seen in Mumbai, India, July 12, 2023. REUTERS/Francis Mascarenhas/File photo Purchase Licensing Rights

Indian shares fell on Monday as investors sold riskier assets after Iran's retaliatory attack on Israel over the weekend spurred fears of a wider regional conflict.

The NSE Nifty 50 (.NSEI), opens new tab was down 0.73% at 22,354.70 as of 10:10 a.m. IST, while the S&P BSE Sensex (.BSESN), opens new tab fell 0.75% to 73,687.02.

"Risk sentiment took a hit after Iran's retaliatory attack on Israel over the weekend stoked fears of a wider conflict in the Middle East region and kept traders on edge," analysts at SMC Global Securities said in a note on Monday, Reuters reported.

"The worries in the Middle East have rattled all financial markets, pushing investors to look for safer places for their money."

Forty-one of the Nifty 50 stocks declined. All the 13 major sectors logged losses.

Shares of Indian rice and tea exporters fell amid escalations in Middle East tensions. India is one of the top exporters of basmati rice and tea, and Iran is a leading buyer of those commodities.

Other Asian peers also traded lower, with the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index (.MIAPJ0000PUS), opens new tab shedding 0.72%.

Among individual stocks, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS.NS), opens new tab, India's top software services firm by revenue, gained 0.8% and was among the top five Nifty 50 gainers.

"While the company reported lower-than-expected revenue in March quarter, we still expect TCS to lead peers on revenue growth in fiscal year 2024, aided by ramp-up of mega deals," analysts at Kotak Institutional Equities said.

Aluminium producer Hindalco Industries (HALC.NS), opens new tab gained 2.5% and was the top Nifty 50 gainer, after the US and UK imposed restrictions on the trading of new Russian commodities on the London Metals Exchange and on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

This (development) should be most positive for aluminium prices and shares of aluminium producers, Jefferies said.

The broader, more domestically-focussed small- (.NIFSMCP100), opens new tab and mid-caps (.NIFMDCP100), opens new tab lost about 3% and 2%, respectively, after outperforming the benchmarks in April, ahead of the session.


Europe Aviation Agency Urges Caution in Israeli, Iranian Airspace 

A view from the southern Gaza strip shows drones or missiles vying for targets in southern Israel, early 14 April 2024. (EPA)
A view from the southern Gaza strip shows drones or missiles vying for targets in southern Israel, early 14 April 2024. (EPA)
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Europe Aviation Agency Urges Caution in Israeli, Iranian Airspace 

A view from the southern Gaza strip shows drones or missiles vying for targets in southern Israel, early 14 April 2024. (EPA)
A view from the southern Gaza strip shows drones or missiles vying for targets in southern Israel, early 14 April 2024. (EPA)

Europe's aviation regulator reaffirmed advice to airlines to use caution in Israeli and Iranian airspace though it said no civil overflights had been placed at risk during weekend tensions surrounding Iranian drone and missile strikes on Israel. 

The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) said it and the European Commission would "continue to closely monitor the situation to assess any potential safety risks for EU aircraft operators and be ready to act as appropriate". 

EASA guidance that is already in place for airlines on Israel and Iran continues to apply, it said in an emailed note. 

That included exercising caution and following all available aeronautical publications for Israel and neighboring airspace up to 100 nautical miles surrounding the country. 

For Iran, it recommended caution and said "there continues to be an increased potential for miscalculation and/or misidentification" in airspace over the Iranian capital Tehran. 

Global airlines face some disruption after Iran's attack on Israel with more than 300 missiles and drones, which were mostly shot down by Israel's US-backed missile defense system or its allies before they reached Israeli airspace. 

The attack was in response to a suspected Israeli airstrike on Iran's Syria consulate on April 1 in which seven Iranian Revolutionary Guards commanders and officers were killed. 

EASA said all affected airspaces - Israel, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq and Iran - were closed by the relevant authorities during the relevant period. 

"There was no overflight risk for civil aviation at any time," it said. An overflight involves an aircraft transiting through airspace, typically at high cruising altitude. 

All the temporary airspace closures imposed at the weekend expired on Sunday, EASA said. 


Türkiye Central Bank Posts $25 bln Loss for 2023

The central bank effectively revised upwards the Turkish lira share in the banking system,- File photo
The central bank effectively revised upwards the Turkish lira share in the banking system,- File photo
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Türkiye Central Bank Posts $25 bln Loss for 2023

The central bank effectively revised upwards the Turkish lira share in the banking system,- File photo
The central bank effectively revised upwards the Turkish lira share in the banking system,- File photo

Türkiye's central bank posted a 2023 loss of 818.2 billion lira ($25.25 billion), showed its balance sheet published in the Official Gazette on Sunday, on the back of steep loss stemming from the "KKM" foreign exchange-protected deposit scheme.

The government has been working for months to exit KKM, launched in 2021 to stem a historic currency crash. Loss stemming from KKM prompted the central bank to pass on distributing profit to the Treasury in 2023.

The scheme helped reverse a trend of Turks flocking to hard currency and gold to protect savings after years of lira depreciation.

The central bank is now seeking to boost the share of lira deposits in the banking system. It started in August to urge conversion from KKM to standard lira accounts, Reuters reported.

An independent audit report published last year showed the central bank posted profit of 72 billion lira in 2022 and 57.5 billion lira in 2021.

The central bank will convene its general assembly on April 30 in Ankara to discuss 2023 results.