Lebanon: Speculations Swing Beirut’s Dollar Up, Down

 A man counts US dollar banknotes next to Lebanese pounds at a currency exchange shop in Beirut, Lebanon April 24, 2020. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir
A man counts US dollar banknotes next to Lebanese pounds at a currency exchange shop in Beirut, Lebanon April 24, 2020. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir
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Lebanon: Speculations Swing Beirut’s Dollar Up, Down

 A man counts US dollar banknotes next to Lebanese pounds at a currency exchange shop in Beirut, Lebanon April 24, 2020. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir
A man counts US dollar banknotes next to Lebanese pounds at a currency exchange shop in Beirut, Lebanon April 24, 2020. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir

The Lebanese people’s cheers did not last long with the tangible improvement in the exchange rate and the speculations about the US dollar reaching the threshold of LBP 5,000.

The green currency rose again on Monday and reached LBP 8,000 by the end of day.

Banking sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that unfounded information spread about a dramatic decrease in the value of the USD against the Lebanese pound, with the aim to motivate some home savers and non-currency dealers to offer hard currency.

According to the sources, rumors also overstated unconfirmed political moves and inflated imminent external support, in addition to amounts “brought in by expatriates after the reopening of Beirut’s international airport.”

However, the banking officials noted that the re-delegation of the banks to manage the subsidized dollar portfolio - which is provided by the central bank at a price of LBP 3,900 for the benefit of importers of the food and basic commodity basket approved by the Ministry of Economy - actually contributed to curbing the real and justified demand for the dollar at the licensed cashiers and created a less tense atmosphere in the parallel market.

On the other hand, Lebanon’s stumbled negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have generated negative factors that put further pressure on the national currency.

The talks with the IMF experts were aimed at securing an easy financing program to help the government tackle the large financial gap that has affected all production, labor and employment sectors.



US Job Growth Surges in September, Unemployment Rate Falls to 4.1%

A woman enters a store next to a sign advertising job openings at Times Square in New York City, New York, US, August 6, 2021. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz/File Photo
A woman enters a store next to a sign advertising job openings at Times Square in New York City, New York, US, August 6, 2021. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz/File Photo
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US Job Growth Surges in September, Unemployment Rate Falls to 4.1%

A woman enters a store next to a sign advertising job openings at Times Square in New York City, New York, US, August 6, 2021. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz/File Photo
A woman enters a store next to a sign advertising job openings at Times Square in New York City, New York, US, August 6, 2021. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz/File Photo

US job growth accelerated in September and the unemployment slipped to 4.1%, further reducing the need for the Federal Reserve to maintain large interest rate cuts at its remaining two meetings this year.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 254,000 jobs last month after rising by an upwardly revised 159,000 in August, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said in its closely watched employment report on Friday.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls rising by 140,000 positions after advancing by a previously reported 142,000 in August.
The initial payrolls count for August has typically been revised higher over the past decade. Estimates for September's job gains ranged from 70,000 to 220,000.
The US labor market slowdown is being driven by tepid hiring against the backdrop of increased labor supply stemming mostly from a rise in immigration. Layoffs have remained low, which is underpinning the economy through solid consumer spending.
Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% after gaining 0.5% in August. Wages increased 4% year-on-year after climbing 3.9% in August.
The US unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% in August. It has jumped from 3.4% in April 2023, in part boosted by the 16-24 age cohort and rise in temporary layoffs during the annual automobile plant shutdowns in July.
The US Federal Reserve's policy setting committee kicked off its policy easing cycle with an unusually large half-percentage-point rate cut last month and Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized growing concerns over the health of the labor market.
While the labor market has taken a step back, annual benchmark revisions to national accounts data last week showed the economy in a much better shape than previously estimated, with upgrades to growth, income, savings and corporate profits.
This improved economic backdrop was acknowledged by Powell this week when he pushed back against investors' expectations for another half-percentage-point rate cut in November, saying “this is not a committee that feels like it is in a hurry to cut rates quickly.”
The Fed hiked rates by 525 basis points in 2022 and 2023, and delivered its first rate cut since 2020 last month. Its policy rate is currently set in the 4.75%-5.00% band.
Early on Friday, financial markets saw a roughly 71.5% chance of a quarter-point rate reduction in November, CME's FedWatch tool showed. The odds of a 50 basis points cut were around 28.5%.