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Beirut Blast Is a Game Changer

An aerial view of the Beirut port after the explosion | AFP
An aerial view of the Beirut port after the explosion | AFP
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Beirut Blast Is a Game Changer

An aerial view of the Beirut port after the explosion | AFP
An aerial view of the Beirut port after the explosion | AFP

The Middle East is plagued by conspiracy theories and the reality of hidden wars in the region. There is no doubt that Beirut’s blast falls within this context. Some say it is the doing of external parties even though all available evidence points towards neglect.

The size of human, material, and economic damage caused by the explosion will be a game changer for Lebanon and that is what some countries perhaps are seeking.

Hidden Wars

According to a Western official, experts and monitors of developments in the Middle East were waiting for a major event because of the accumulation of a score of issues, especially in two files: the hidden war between Iran and Israel and the rulings to be issued by the Special Tribunal for Lebanon on the assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafic Hariri in which figures from Hezbollah were expected to be charged.

In the past weeks, Iran has been the subject of a series of "mysterious bombings" targeting its nuclear program.

More so, positions held by Iranian forces and their proxies in Syria have been targeted by some 20 airstrikes across eight Syrian provinces within 100 days. Around 100 personnel of Iran-affiliated groups were killed in the air raids.

Iranian militias in the Boukamal countryside near Deir Ezzor were also bombarded by an unknown source.

On Monday, Israel struck a cell believed to be tied to Iran and a number of Syrian observation posts in Al Qunaitra countryside in the Golan Heights.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, on Tuesday, dished out warnings to Damascus and Hezbollah that any retaliation for the killing of a Hezbollah official by an Israeli raid will be met with a ‘heavy’ response.
This coincided with military maneuvers conducted by the Israeli army over the occupied Golan Heights.

Netanyahu’s remarks followed rare talks for the US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley in Tel Aviv to coordinate against Iran.

The Western official also noted that with US presidential elections coming up, Israelis are rushing to direct major strikes against Iran in Syria.

The Beirut blast also took place a few days before the date of issuing the ruling on the assassination of the Lebanese PM Hariri, which was scheduled for Friday the 4th, and which accuses four defendants of plotting the 2005 bombing that killed the prime minister.

The Western official said that everyone was highly anticipating the issuing of the ruling amid political divisions and an economic crisis striking the country.

In the face of these facts, the Middle East theater was prepared for a major event, whether it be a military confrontation or a round of hidden wars in the region. The fact that the Beirut port blast was caused by ‘ammonium nitrate,’ which is used in explosions, has reinforced some people's beliefs that it was an episode of a hidden war.

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Where Things Stand in the US-China Trade War

OAKLAND, CALIFORNIA - APRIL 09: The container ship CMA CGM Osiris arrives at the Port of Oakland on April 09, 2025 in Oakland, California. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images/AFP
OAKLAND, CALIFORNIA - APRIL 09: The container ship CMA CGM Osiris arrives at the Port of Oakland on April 09, 2025 in Oakland, California. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images/AFP
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Where Things Stand in the US-China Trade War

OAKLAND, CALIFORNIA - APRIL 09: The container ship CMA CGM Osiris arrives at the Port of Oakland on April 09, 2025 in Oakland, California. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images/AFP
OAKLAND, CALIFORNIA - APRIL 09: The container ship CMA CGM Osiris arrives at the Port of Oakland on April 09, 2025 in Oakland, California. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images/AFP

US President Donald Trump has ramped up his trade war against China, further raising import tariffs on Beijing to 125 percent despite pausing them for other countries.

The move came hours after China announced reciprocal action against the United States in response to a previous levy hike.

AFP looks at how the escalating trade war between the world's two biggest economies is playing out -- and what impact it might have:

What actions has Trump taken so far?

Trump said Wednesday that the US would raise tariffs on Chinese imports to a staggering 125 percent, citing a "lack of respect" from Beijing.

The announcement came as the mercurial president announced a halt on tariffs for other nations for 90 days, following panic on global markets.

The new levy on China marked the latest salvo in a brewing tit-for-tat trade war between the two global superpowers.

A previous round of US tariffs had come into force earlier on Wednesday, jacking up duties on China to 104 percent.

As well as the blanket levies, China is also under sector-specific tariffs on steel, aluminium and car imports.

How has China responded?

China has vowed to fight the measures "to the end" and so far has unveiled reciprocal tariffs each time Trump has upped the ante.

Responding to the 104 percent duties on Wednesday, Beijing said it would raise its own tariffs on US imports from 34 percent to 84 percent, effective from Thursday.

It also said it had filed a complaint with the World Trade Organization (WTO), citing "bullying" tactics by the Trump administration.

China had not responded to the latest hike in tariffs to 125 percent levies as of Thursday morning.

But its countermeasures have begun to step outside the economic sphere, with government departments warning citizens of the "risks" of travelling to the US or studying in parts of the country.

And while Beijing has blasted the US with fiery rhetoric, it has continued to urge "equal dialogue" to resolve the trade spat.

Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, said China had sent a "clear signal" that it would not back down, adding that there was "(no) quick and easy way out" of the conflict.

Haibin Zhu, chief China economist at J.P. Morgan, agreed, saying "the bar for a possible deal is high".

- Why is China so vulnerable to tariffs? -

Trade between the world's two largest economies is vast.

Sales of Chinese goods to the US last year totaled more than $500 billion -- 16.4 percent of the country's exports, according to Beijing's customs data.

And China imported $143.5 billion in goods from the United States in 2024, according to the office of the US Trade Representative.

That trade was dominated by agricultural products, primarily oilseeds and grains, according to the US-China Business Council. Oil and gas, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors are also among major US exports to China.

Beijing has long drawn Trump's ire with a trade surplus with the United States that reached $295.4 billion last year, according to the US Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Chinese leaders have been reluctant to disrupt the status quo, in part because the country's export-driven economy is particularly sensitive to vicissitudes in international trade.

US duties also threaten to harm China's fragile post-Covid economic recovery as it struggles with a debt crisis in the property sector and persistently low consumption -- a downturn Beijing had sought to slow with broad fiscal stimulus last year.

But an intensified trade war will likely mean China cannot peg its hopes for strong economic growth this year on its exports, which reached record highs in 2024.

What impact will US tariffs have?

The head of the WTO said Wednesday that the US-China tariff war could cut trade in goods between the two countries by 80 percent.

Given the two economic giants account for three percent of world trade, the conflict could "severely damage the global economic outlook", Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said.

Analysts expect the levies to take a significant chunk out of China's GDP, which Beijing's leadership hope will grow five percent this year.

Likely to be hit hardest are China's top exports to the United States -- everything from electronics and machinery to textiles and clothing, according to the Peterson Institute of International Economics.

And because of the crucial role Chinese goods play in supplying US firms, the tariffs may also hurt American manufacturers and consumers, analysts have warned.

Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics, said it was "difficult to see either side backing down in the next few days".

But, he added, "talks will eventually happen, although a full rollback of all the additional tariffs... appear unlikely".