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Conflict Rages over ‘Weapons and Heart’ of Tribes in Northeastern Syria

SDF commander Abdi Mazloum, wearing a traditional Arab dress, meets tribal leaders in Syria.
SDF commander Abdi Mazloum, wearing a traditional Arab dress, meets tribal leaders in Syria.
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Conflict Rages over ‘Weapons and Heart’ of Tribes in Northeastern Syria

SDF commander Abdi Mazloum, wearing a traditional Arab dress, meets tribal leaders in Syria.
SDF commander Abdi Mazloum, wearing a traditional Arab dress, meets tribal leaders in Syria.

The conflict that kicked off in mid-2019 between international and regional powers to win over the tribes of northeastern Syria intensified in recent days after the assassination of a senior figure in the Al-Uqaydat tribe, one of the largest in the Deir Ezzour province.

A look at the past
Backed by the US-led international coalition, the Kurdish-Arab Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) liberated the town of Baghouz, in Deir Ezzour, from ISIS in March 2019. Weeks later, protests erupted in the region east of the Euphrates, demanding an improvement in services and a halt to the “export” of oil to regions held by the Damascus regime. The SDF controls about 185 square kilometers, or nearly a third of Syria, 90 percent of the country’s oilfields, half of its gas fields, its three largest dams and most agricultural territories.

The majority of influential players in Syria have tried to win these tribes over to their side. These efforts have led to the tribes striking alliances with various forces: One alliance was struck with the SDF, another with Ankara and the third with Damascus. Tehran, meanwhile, attempted to offer “attractive packages” to Syrian youths to recruit them to its militias.

The Arab Council in Al Jazeera and Al Furat, which was formed in 2017, supported the Deir Ezzour protests that erupted against SDF. Ankara, meanwhile, supported the establishment of the Supreme Council of Syrian Tribes and Clans in December 2018. These clans and tribes voiced their support for the Turkish operations against the SDF.

On the other end, figures close to Damascus, including Hussam Qaterji, sponsored a conference for the Deir Ezzour tribes. The event was held in the Aleppo countryside and vowed to provide 5,000 fighters at a time when Iran was present militarily in Deir Ezzour. The al-Baqir brigade announced the formation of “resistance tribal units” aimed at expelling foreign forces from Syria.

New factors
A number of major and minor developments had taken place in recent months, which shifted attention to northeastern Syria. The first was US President Donald Trump’s announcement that he will keep a number of American forces in the region east of the Euphrates River after he had initially announced that he was pulling out the troops from the country. The second was the continuation of Israeli raids against “Iranian positions” in the Deir Ezzour and Albukamal regions. The third was Russia testing just how committed Washington was to maintaining its forces by its repeated attempts to reach the Iraqi border.

On the internal scene, and after months of secret American and French-sponsored negotiations, the two most prominent Kurdish parties in northeastern Syria succeeded in reaching preliminary agreements that guarantee the commitment to the Hewler (Erbil) pact. Deep differences between the Kurdish National Council and Democratic Union alliance had thwarted the implementation of the pact.

Another development was the declaration by Syria's Tomorrow Movement, headed by Ahmed al-Jarba, of the formation of the new Peace and Freedom Front. The front includes the Arab Council in Al Jazeera and Al Furat, Assyrian Democratic Organization and Kurdish National Council. Leaders of the front said it includes Kurdish, Arab and Assyrian forces on the ground in order to underscore the ties and cooperation between them. They acknowledged the role of the SDF, but said that it alone cannot rule the region.

A delegation from the Peace and Freedom Front recently met with American officials in the region east of the Euphrates. One of its leaders told Asharq Al-Awsat that the delegation received positive responses from the US, which was keen on establishing a partnership that the Syrian people deserve.

Commander of the SDF, Mazloum Abdi, had on his end held a number of meetings with tribal leaders from Deir Ezzour to listen to their demands.

Another significant development was US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Senator Lindsey Graham’s announcement of a partnership deal between the US Delta Crescent Energy company and SDF to invest in oil in the region east of the Euphrates with the possibility of exporting it. Observers interpreted the move as American recognition of the Kurdish autonomous administration, significantly since the agreement, which deals with national Syrian resources, does not involve Damascus.

Amid all of these developments, Sheikh Muttshar al-Hifl, a senior Al-Uqaydat tribe member, was assassinated in Deir Ezzour in early August.

Raging conflict
The autonomous administration and SDF did not comment on the oil deal, but Ankara, Damascus, Tehran and Moscow were quick to denounce it as a “violation of Syria’s sovereignty” and “theft” of its resources. The deal and Hifl’s assassination have added fuel to the raging conflict between local, regional and international forces over the Deir Ezzour tribes.

The SDF denied its involvement in the murder and instead implied that the regime was involved. It has arrested a number of suspects and investigations are ongoing with them, said a Kurdish official. “The tribes are politically disorganized and the region was liberated from ISIS only a year ago,” he added. “We are tasked with providing security to hold elections and help the tribes organize themselves.”

Meanwhile, the “Al-Uqaydat Zubaid” tribe announced on Monday the formation of a military council aimed at “liberating the region.” It hailed the “heroics of the Syrian Arab Army” and saluted “the friends of Syria and their support of the war against terrorism led by president Bashar Assad.” Another group, called the “Al-Uqaydat tribe” issued a statement “thanking the Turkish command, government and army for what it has offered to the Syrian people.” It thanked them for meeting a series of demands, including having the US cease its support to the SDF, handing over the region to its people and rejecting demographic change.

The Arab Council in Al Jazeera and Al Furat was quick to condemn Hifl’s assassination. But the most significant reaction to the murder came from Ibrahim al-Hifl, Sheikh of the Al-Uqaydat Zubaid tribe, who was wounded in the attack. In a statement on Tuesday, he held the international coalition “fully” responsible for the developments in the region, demanding that it turn it over to the people and that the Arabs play their role “in full” in the area. He gave the coalition a month to meet the demands and hand over the perpetrators.

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North Korea Boasts of ‘The World’s Strongest’ Missile, but Experts Say It’s Too Big to Use in War

A view shows what they say is a "Hwasong-19" missile being launched at an undisclosed location in this screengrab obtained from a video released on November 1, 2024. (KRT/via Reuters TV/Handout via Reuters)
A view shows what they say is a "Hwasong-19" missile being launched at an undisclosed location in this screengrab obtained from a video released on November 1, 2024. (KRT/via Reuters TV/Handout via Reuters)
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North Korea Boasts of ‘The World’s Strongest’ Missile, but Experts Say It’s Too Big to Use in War

A view shows what they say is a "Hwasong-19" missile being launched at an undisclosed location in this screengrab obtained from a video released on November 1, 2024. (KRT/via Reuters TV/Handout via Reuters)
A view shows what they say is a "Hwasong-19" missile being launched at an undisclosed location in this screengrab obtained from a video released on November 1, 2024. (KRT/via Reuters TV/Handout via Reuters)

North Korea boasted Friday that the new intercontinental ballistic missile it just test-launched is "the world’s strongest," a claim seen as pure propaganda after experts assessed it as being too big to be useful in a war situation.

The ICBM launched Thursday flew higher and for a longer duration than any other weapon North Korea has tested. But foreign experts say the test failed to show North Korea has mastered some of the last remaining technological hurdles to possess functioning ICBMs that can strike the mainland US.

The North’s Korean Central News Agency identified the missile as a Hwasong-19 and called it "the world’s strongest strategic missile" and "the perfected weapon system." The official media outlet said leader Kim Jong Un observed the launch, describing it as an expression of North Korea’s resolve to respond to external threats to North Korea’s security.

The color and shape of the exhaust flames seen in North Korean state media photos of the launch suggest the missile uses preloaded solid fuel, which makes weapons more agile and harder to detect than liquid propellants that in general must be fueled beforehand.

But experts say the photos show the ICBM and its launch vehicle are both oversized, raising a serious question about their wartime mobility and survivability.

"When missiles get bigger, what happens? The vehicles get larger, too. As the transporter-erector launchers get bigger, their mobility decreases," Lee Sangmin, an expert at South Korea’s Korea Institute for Defense Analyses.

The Hwasong-19 was estimated to be at least 28 meters long (92 feet) while advanced US and Russian ICBMs are less than 20 meters long (66 feet), said Chang Young-keun, a missile expert at Seoul’s Korea Research Institute for National Strategy. He suggested that the missile's size likely helped South Korean intelligence authorities detect the launch plan in advance.

"In the event of a conflict, such an exposure makes the weapon a target of a preemptive attack by opponents so there would be a big issue of survivability," Chang said.

Lee Illwoo, an expert with the Korea Defense Network in South Korea, said North Korea may have developed a larger missile to carry bigger and more destructive warheads or multi-warheads. If that's the case, Lee said North Korea could have used liquid fuels as they generate higher thrust than solid fuels. He said some advanced liquid propellants can be stored in missiles for a few weeks before liftoffs.

Lee said North Korea may have placed a dummy, empty warhead on the Hwasong-19 to make it fly higher.

In recent years, North Korea has reported steady advancement in its efforts to obtain nuclear-tipped missiles. Many foreign experts believe North Korea likely has missiles that can deliver nuclear strikes on all of South Korea, but it has yet to possess nuclear missiles that can strike the mainland US.

The hurdles it has yet to overcome, according to experts, include ensuring its warheads survive the heat and stress of atmospheric reentry, improving the guidance systems for the missiles, and being able to use multiple warheads on a single missile to defeat missile defenses.

"Acquiring reentry technology is currently the most important goal in North Korea’s missile development, specifically for ICBMs, but they just keep increasing the ranges instead. This possibly suggests they still lack confidence in their reentry technology," Lee Sangmin said.

Chang said Friday's state media dispatch on the launch lacks details on the technological aspects of the Hawsong-19 and focused on publicity.

Other North Korean claims about its weapons capabilities have been met with wide outside skepticism.

In June, North Korea claimed to have tested a multiwarhead missile in the first known launch of such a weapon, but South Korea said the weapon instead blew up. In July, when North Korea said it had test-fired a new tactical ballistic missile capable of carrying "a super-large warhead," South Korea said the claim was an attempt to conceal a botched launch.

North Korea's missile program is still a major regional security concern, with the country openly threatening to use its nuclear missiles against its rivals. In a joint statement Thursday, the foreign ministers of South Korea, the US and Japan condemned the ICBM launch as a violation of UN Security Council resolutions and said they're committed to strengthening their efforts to block North Korea's illicit revenue generation funding its missile and nuclear programs.

South Korea's Foreign Ministry said Friday it has imposed unilateral sanctions on 11 North Korean individuals and four organizations for their alleged roles in procuring missile components and generating foreign currency to fund Pyongyang’s weapons program. The sanctions are largely symbolic given that financial transactions between the Koreas have been suspended for years.

Also Friday, South Korea and the US conducted their first-ever joint live-fire exercise using unmanned aerial vehicles as part of efforts to demonstrate their readiness. South Korea’s RQ-4B "Global Hawk" reconnaissance aircraft and the US MQ-9 Reaper strike drone were mobilized for the training, according to South Korea's air force. South Korea and the US have been expanding their regular military drills to cope with North Korea’s evolving nuclear threats.

Observers say that Thursday's launch, the North's first ICBM test in almost a year, was largely meant to grab American attention days before the US presidential election and respond to international condemnation over North Korea's reported dispatch of troops to Russia to support its war against Ukraine.

North Korea's reported troop dispatch highlights the expanding military cooperation between North Korea and Russia. South Korea. The US and others worry North Korea might seek high-tech, sensitive Russian technology to perfect its nuclear and missile programs in return for joining the Russian-Ukraine war.