Egypt's Farmers Fear Impact of Ethiopia’s Dam

Egyptian farmer Makhluf Abu Kassem, center, sits with farmers under shade of a dried up palm tree surrounded by barren wasteland that was once fertile and green, in Second Village, Qouta town, Fayoum, Egypt, Wednesday, Aug. 5, 2020. AP
Egyptian farmer Makhluf Abu Kassem, center, sits with farmers under shade of a dried up palm tree surrounded by barren wasteland that was once fertile and green, in Second Village, Qouta town, Fayoum, Egypt, Wednesday, Aug. 5, 2020. AP
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Egypt's Farmers Fear Impact of Ethiopia’s Dam

Egyptian farmer Makhluf Abu Kassem, center, sits with farmers under shade of a dried up palm tree surrounded by barren wasteland that was once fertile and green, in Second Village, Qouta town, Fayoum, Egypt, Wednesday, Aug. 5, 2020. AP
Egyptian farmer Makhluf Abu Kassem, center, sits with farmers under shade of a dried up palm tree surrounded by barren wasteland that was once fertile and green, in Second Village, Qouta town, Fayoum, Egypt, Wednesday, Aug. 5, 2020. AP

In the winter of 1964, Makhluf Abu Kassem was born in this agricultural community newly created at the far end of Egypt’s Fayoum oasis. His parents were among the village’s first settlers, moving there three years earlier from the Nile Valley to carve out a new life as farmers.

It was a bright and prosperous start. The region was fertile, and for four decades they made their living growing corn, cotton and wheat, The Associated Press reported.

Now 55, Abu Kassem looks out what’s left of his shriveling farm, surrounded by barren wasteland that was once his neighbors’ farmland — victims of dwindling irrigation in recent years.

“There used to be enough water to make all this area green. ... Now, it is as you see,” he said.

In the past, he and other villagers irrigated their farms through canals linked to the Nile River, Egypt’s lifeline since ancient times. It provides the country with a thin, richly fertile stretch of green land through the desert.

But there has been a loss of at least 75% of farmland in the village and the surrounding areas, according to Abdel-Fattah el-Aweidi, head of Gazaer Qouta Agriculture Association, overseeing the area.

Now, Abu Kassem fears that a dam Ethiopia is building on the Blue Nile, the Nile’s main tributary, could add to the severe water shortages already hitting his village if no deal is struck to ensure a continued flow of water.

“The dam means our death,” he said.

The exact impact of the dam on downstream countries Egypt and Sudan remains unknown. For Egyptian farmers, the daunting prospect adds a new worry on top of the other causes of mounting water scarcity. Egypt is already spreading its water resources thin. Its booming population, now over 100 million, has one of the lowest per capita shares of water in the world, at around 550 cubic meters per year, compared to a global average of 1,000.

Ethiopia says the electricity that will be generated by its Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is a crucial lifeline to bring its nearly 110 million citizens out of poverty.

Egypt, which relies on the Nile for more than 90% of its water supplies, including drinking water, industrial use and irrigation, fears a devastating impact if the dam is operated without taking its needs into account.

It wants to guarantee a minimum annual release of 40 billion cubic meters of water from the Blue Nile while Ethiopia fills the dam’s giant reservoir, according to an irrigation official. That would be less than the 55 billion cubic meters Egypt usually gets from the Nile, mostly from the Blue Nile. The shortage would be filled by water stored behind Egypt’s Aswan High Dam in Lake Nasser, which has a gross capacity of 169 billion cubic meters of water.

“If the dam is filled and operated without coordination between Egypt and Ethiopia, its impact will be destructive to the whole Egyptian society and the state will not be able to address its repercussions,” said Egypt’s former Irrigation Minister Mohammed Nasr Allam.

It is estimated that a permanent drop of 5 billion cubic meters of Nile water to Egypt would cause the loss of 1 million acres of farmland, or 12% of the country’s total, he said.

Sudan says the project could endanger its own dams, though it would also see benefits from the Ethiopian dam, including cheap electricity and reduced flooding.

On Abu Kassem’s 16-acre farm, only a single acre is now cultivated. His family tried growing corn, but the plants died. They, like most others in the area, switched to growing olive trees, which use less water. But even those suffer.

“These trees haven’t seen water in over 40 days,” Abu Kassem said, showing a shriveled fruit.

With the water waning, many of the village’s 12,000 people have left, including Abu Kassem’s three brothers and his four sons.

Ihsan Abdel-Azim, 53, the wife of one of Abu Kassem’s brothers, moved with her family to work as doormen in Cairo in 2001.

“We had had no choice at the time,” AP quoted the mother of five as saying, sitting among her grandchildren during a visit to the village earlier this month. “Cultivating the farm became insufficient to feed my children. All roads led that way.”

Years-long negotiations among Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia failed to reach a deal on the dam. The dispute reached a tipping point earlier this week when Ethiopia announced it completed the first stage of the filling of the dam’s 74 billion-cubic-meter reservoir.

That sparked fear and confusion in Sudan and Egypt. Both have repeatedly insisted Ethiopia must not start the fill without reaching a deal first.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said the filling occurred naturally, “without bothering or hurting anyone else,” from torrential rains flooding the Blue Nile.

Sticking points in the talks have been how much water Ethiopia will release downstream during the filling if a multi-year drought occurs and how the three countries will resolve any future disputes. Egypt and Sudan have pushed for a binding agreement, while Ethiopia insists on non-binding guidelines.



Trump Vowed to Ease Sanctions on Syria. How Quickly that Happens is Up for Debate

In this photo released by the Saudi Royal Palace, President Donald Trump, right, shakes hands with Syria's interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Wednesday, May 14, 2025. (Bandar Aljaloud/Saudi Royal Palace via AP)
In this photo released by the Saudi Royal Palace, President Donald Trump, right, shakes hands with Syria's interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Wednesday, May 14, 2025. (Bandar Aljaloud/Saudi Royal Palace via AP)
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Trump Vowed to Ease Sanctions on Syria. How Quickly that Happens is Up for Debate

In this photo released by the Saudi Royal Palace, President Donald Trump, right, shakes hands with Syria's interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Wednesday, May 14, 2025. (Bandar Aljaloud/Saudi Royal Palace via AP)
In this photo released by the Saudi Royal Palace, President Donald Trump, right, shakes hands with Syria's interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Wednesday, May 14, 2025. (Bandar Aljaloud/Saudi Royal Palace via AP)

Since President Donald Trump announced his intent to end a half-century of US sanctions on Syria, a debate has developed in his administration over how quickly and thoroughly that should happen.

At risk could be the future of a transitional government run by those who drove Syrian leader Bashar Assad from power late last year and hopes that it can stabilize the country after a devastating 13-year civil war that has left millions dead or displaced, the economy in ruins and thousands of foreign fighters still on Syrian soil.

US presidents have piled up penalties over the years on the autocratic family that previously controlled Syria, and those could be quickly lifted or waived through executive action. But Congress imposed some of the strictest measures and would have to permanently remove them.

Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa, the former opposition commander who led the overthrow, says he is working to build an inclusive government friendly to the West. Some Trump administration officials are pushing to lift or waive sanctions as fast as possible without demanding tough conditions first.

Others in the administration have proposed a phased approach, giving short-term waivers soon on some sanctions and then tying extensions or a wider executive order to Syria meeting conditions, which could substantially slow — or even permanently prevent — longer-term relief. That would impede the interim government’s ability to attract investment and rebuild Syria after the war, critics say.

“The Syria sanctions are a complex web of statutes, executive actions and United Nations Security Council resolutions that have to be unwound thoughtfully and cautiously,” White House National Security Council spokesman Max Bluestein said.

The administration is “currently analyzing the optimal way to do so” and would have an announcement soon, Bluestein said in a statement Thursday to The Associated Press.

A State Department proposal circulated among officials after Trump's pledge on his Middle East trip last week lays out sweeping conditions for future phases of relief or permanent lifting of sanctions, including dismantling Palestinian militant groups as a top demand, according to a senior US official familiar with the plan, who was not authorized to comment publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity.

Additional proposals are circulating, including one shared this week that broadly emphasized taking all the action possible, as fast as possible, to help Syria rebuild, the official said.

A welcome US announcement in Syria People danced in the streets of Damascus after Trump announced in Saudi Arabia last week that he would “be ordering the cessation of sanctions against Syria in order to give them a chance at greatness.”

“We're taking them all off,” Trump said a day before meeting the country’s new leader. “Good luck, Syria. Show us something special.”

This week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio advocated for a hedged approach in testimony before US lawmakers.

Rubio pushed for sanctions relief to start quickly, saying Syria’s five-month-old transition government could be weeks from “collapse and a full-scale civil war of epic proportions.”

But asked what sanctions relief should look like overall, Rubio gave a one-word explanation: “Incremental.”

Washington has levied sanctions against Syria's former ruling family since 1979 over its support for Hezbollah and other Iranian-allied militant groups, its alleged chemical weapons program and its brutality against civilians as the Assad family fought to stay in power.

The sanctions include heavy penalties for outside companies or investors doing business there. Syria needs tens of billions of dollars in investment to restore its battered infrastructure and help the estimated 90% of the population living in poverty.

Syria’s interim leaders “didn’t pass their background check with the FBI,” Rubio acknowledged to lawmakers this week. The group that al-Sharaa led, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, was originally affiliated with al-Qaida, although it later renounced ties and took a more moderate tone. It is still listed by the US as a terrorist organization.

But al-Sharaa's government could be the best chance for rebuilding the country and avoiding a power vacuum that could allow for a resurgence of the ISIS group and other extremist groups.

“If we engage them, it may work out, it may not work out. If we do not engage them, it was guaranteed to not work out,” Rubio said.

Mouaz Moustafa, executive director of the US-based Syrian Emergency Task Force and an advocate who has been influential in helping shape past US policy on Syria, said he has been circulating a framework for a proposed executive order that would allow Trump to quickly remove many of the sanctions.

Trump’s move to lift the penalties is aimed at “preventing a failed state and ending perpetual violence,” but some in the administration are trying to “water down” the decision, Moustafa asserted.

Debate within the Trump administration

The initial document sent out last week by the State Department's policy and planning staff proposed a three-phase road map for sanctions relief, starting with short-term waivers. Progress toward additional relief and an outright lifting of penalties in future phases would be tied to tough conditions that generated pushback from some officials.

Removing “Palestinian terror groups” from Syria is first on the list of requirements to get to the second phase. Supporters of sanctions relief say the condition might be impossible, given the subjectivity of determining which groups meet that definition and at what point they can be declared removed.

Other conditions for moving to the second phase are for the new government to take custody of detention facilities housing ISIS fighters in northeast Syria and to carry out a recent deal with the US-backed, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces — which manages the detention facilities — that includes the SDF being incorporated into the Syrian army.

To get to phase three, Syria would be required to join the Abraham Accords — normalized relations with Israel — and to prove that it had destroyed all of the previous government’s chemical weapons.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu previously pushed for the Trump administration not to lift sanctions on Syria. Israel has been suspicious of the new government, although Syrian officials have said publicly that they do not want a conflict with Israel.

Since Assad fell, Israel has launched hundreds of airstrikes and seized a UN-patrolled buffer zone in Syria.

Congressional sanctions on Syria will take much longer to lift

While some of the sanctions can be lifted by executive action, others face a more complex process.

The most difficult could be the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act, a wide-reaching set of sanctions passed by Congress in 2019 in response to alleged war crimes by Assad’s government.

It specifically blocks reconstruction activities, and although it can be waived for 180 days by executive order, investors are likely to be wary of reconstruction projects when sanctions could be reinstated after six months.

In a meeting last week in Türkiye with Syria's foreign minister, Rubio and Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham explained that they supported Trump’s call to ease sanctions immediately but that permanent relief would require action by the Syrian government to meet conditions that the president laid out, according to other US officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.

“We have a moment here to provide some capability to this new government that should be conditions-based,” Graham said this week. “And I don’t want that moment to pass.”