Analysis: Lebanon Races towards Complete Collapse

A view shows damages at the site of a massive explosion in Beirut's port area, as part of the city's skyline in seen in the background, in Beirut, Lebanon August 12, 2020. (Reuters)
A view shows damages at the site of a massive explosion in Beirut's port area, as part of the city's skyline in seen in the background, in Beirut, Lebanon August 12, 2020. (Reuters)
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Analysis: Lebanon Races towards Complete Collapse

A view shows damages at the site of a massive explosion in Beirut's port area, as part of the city's skyline in seen in the background, in Beirut, Lebanon August 12, 2020. (Reuters)
A view shows damages at the site of a massive explosion in Beirut's port area, as part of the city's skyline in seen in the background, in Beirut, Lebanon August 12, 2020. (Reuters)

Lebanon is standing at a crossroads where it is expected to choose its fate after reaching the point of no return on all levels: political, after the vast majority of the people lost faith in the ruling class that has been in power for 30 years; economic, after the collapse of the national currency; and security, after the cataclysmic Beirut port explosion and the state’s clear inability in controlling both its legal and illegal border crossings.

Lebanon, or rather the Lebanese state, managed to overcome the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) verdict hurdle. The court is looking into the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. There were fears that this week’s verdict would lead to negative reactions in the streets after a Hezbollah member was convicted of the crime. However, the verdict was released without incident in Lebanon. It remains doubtful that local authorities will ever arrest the convict, Salim Ayyash, amid Hezbollah’s declaration that it is not concerned with the STL and therefore, is not concerned with its verdict. Ayyash alone was convicted of the crime, while the STL acquitted three other Hezbollah members – Hassan Merhi, Assad Sabra and Hassan Oneissi – due to a lack of evidence.

2 loopholes in the verdict
Lebanese international law and constitutional expert, Dr. Shafik al-Masri spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat about “two main loopholes in the STL verdict.” The first, he said, was the failure to announce the responsibilities senior Hezbollah operative, Mustafa Badreddine, played in the assassination. Badreddine was assassinated in Syria in 2016.

The second loophole, he added, is the acquittal of the three suspects even though the verdict noted their role in the telecommunications data. Therefore, their very participation in the operation, even if they did not know who the target was, makes them responsible, said Masri.

Moreover, he stressed the need to read the entire verdict, not just its final ruling. He stressed that the verdict clearly states that Hariri’s assassination was politically motivated and linked to Syria. The verdict said the decision to kill the former PM was taken after two developments: the Bristol 3 meeting that called for Syria to withdraw its forces from Lebanon and Hariri’s meeting with Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Muallem during which complaints were voiced over Syria’s position in Lebanon.

Masri said people criticized the STL for failing to clearly announce who ordered the assassination, however, international tribunals do not have the jurisdiction to issue verdicts against organizations or states. The clear mentioning of Syria in the verdict is tantamount to condemnation against it, he explained.

On Ayyash’s potential arrest, Masri said that this is up to the new Lebanese government that is yet to be formed. The government will have to demonstrate its seriousness before the local and international public that it will carry out its duty in this regard. The STL may refer the issue to Interpol after Ayyash’s sentence is announce. Interpol could then track him down and arrest him, he explained, citing previous examples.

Port blast and escaping blame
If Lebanon is likely to overcome the repercussions of the STL verdict, then it will no doubt be unable to shake off the aftermath of the August 4 Beirut port blast, which has to date claimed the lives of at least 180 people, injured thousands and left 300,000 homeless. Investigations are ongoing in the explosion, but they are almost exclusively limited to security and administrative officials at the port.

Several political powers have expressed their lack of faith in any local probe, demanding an international investigation. This demand will probably stumble at President Michel Aoun, and his ally Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, who have rejected it.

As of this week, Judge Fadi Sawwan has issued numerous arrest warrants in the investigation, with Beirut Port General Manager Hassan Koraytem and Director General of Lebanese Customs Badri Daher among the most prominent officials included. Sawwan is still focusing his investigation on the negligence that allowed 2,750 tons of highly-explosive ammonium nitrate to remain at the port for seven years. As for the cause of the blast, the judge is awaiting reports from explosive experts, significantly from French and FBI experts, who are helping the Lebanese team.

At any rate, many in Lebanon fear that blame for the blast will be limited to port authorities, not the judges or ministers who knew of the dangerous stockpile of ammonium nitrate at the hangar 12. Retired general Dr. Mohammed Rammal told Asharq Al-Awsat that several different security agencies oversee security at the port. Even civil authorities are involved. However, uncovered correspondence revealed that security, civil and judicial authorities all knew about the stockpile. This demands that a number of judges be probed. Rammal explained that security forces do not have the authority to move products at the port, but rather they need authorization that is granted by the concerned judiciary.

It appears the political powers will not be able to shirk their responsibilities from the blast given the massive pressure they are under from the people. Furthermore, Rammal said that the arrest of the chief of Lebanese Customs will inevitably lead to an immediate probe of the finance minister, seeing as the customs authority is directly answerable to his ministry.

New government after US elections?
The investigations into the port blast are taking place in the absence of a capable government. Prime Minister Hassan Diab quit after the explosion and is now heading a caretaker cabinet. The absence of a government does not seem to concern the political powers, who are embroiled in their usual bickering, ignoring international pressure that is demanding the formation of a neutral cabinet that is committed to much-needed political and economic reform.

At the moment, the March 8 camp, led by the “Shiite duo” of Hezbollah and the Amal movement, and their ally Aoun, refuses the formation of an independent government. It is insisting on a political national unity government, which is rejected by the opposition, especially the Mustaqbal Movement, headed by former PM Saad Hariri, who is the strongest contender to lead the new cabinet. These disputes mean that the government will not be formed any time soon, said Dr. Sami Nader, director of the Levant Institute for Strategic Affairs.

He predicted that the Diab government will continue to operate in a caretaker capacity until “at least” the American presidential elections in November. He told Asharq Al-Awsat: “The government formation process is now in the Iranian-American court.” He explained that Washington is waiting on Tehran to come to the negotiations table in order to discuss pending issues between them, including Lebanon. Iran, however, will not approach it before the elections, significantly since recent polls show that President Donald Trump’s chances of reelection are slim.

Nader dismissed reports of a French-Iranian initiative that would lead to the formation of a new government. He stressed that the Americans are the ones holding the Lebanese “card”, while the French are simply playing the role of facilitator or mediator.

Lebanon can only see its way out of the crisis through a government that does not include the current political class. Only then will it be able to address the catastrophe caused by the Beirut blast and exert serious efforts in putting an end to the economic freefall. Resolving the economic crisis cannot take place without international help and the success of negotiations with the International Monetary Fund. “A national unity government or the government of deception – meaning technocrat that the political elite will be controlling behind the scenes – are doomed to fail and rejected by the international community,” Nader said.



A Week Into the Fragile Israel-Iran Peace Agreement, Here's What We Still Don't Know

People attend the funeral procession of Iranian military commanders, nuclear scientists and others killed in Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 28, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS
People attend the funeral procession of Iranian military commanders, nuclear scientists and others killed in Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 28, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS
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A Week Into the Fragile Israel-Iran Peace Agreement, Here's What We Still Don't Know

People attend the funeral procession of Iranian military commanders, nuclear scientists and others killed in Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 28, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS
People attend the funeral procession of Iranian military commanders, nuclear scientists and others killed in Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 28, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS

It's been a week since the United States pressed Israel and Iran into a truce, ending a bloody, 12-day conflict that had set the Middle East and globe on edge.

The fragile peace, brokered by the US the day after it dropped 30,000-pound "bunker-busting" bombs on three of Iran's key nuclear sites, is holding. But much remains unsettled, The Associated Press reported.

How badly Iran’s nuclear program was set back remains murky. The prospects of renewed US-Iran peace talks are up in the air. And whether US President Donald Trump can leverage the moment to get Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu 's government and Hamas focused on a ceasefire and hostage deal that brings about an end to the 20-month war in Gaza remains an open question.

Here is a look at what we still don't know:

How far Iran's nuclear program has been set back Trump says three targets hit by American strikes were “obliterated.” His defense secretary said they were “destroyed.”

A preliminary report issued by the US Defense Intelligence Agency, meanwhile, said the strikes did significant damage to the Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan sites, but did not totally destroy the facilities.

Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said on CBS’ “Face the Nation” on Sunday that the three Iranian sites with “capabilities in terms of treatment, conversion and enrichment of uranium have been destroyed to an important degree.” But, he added, “some is still standing” and that because capabilities remain, “if they so wish, they will be able to start doing this again.” He said assessing the full damage comes down to Iran allowing inspectors access.

What future US-Iran relations might look like

After the ceasefire deal came together, Trump spoke of potentially easing decades of biting sanctions on Tehran and predicted that Iran could become a “great trading nation” if it pulled back once-and-for-all from its nuclear program.

The talk of harmony didn't last long.

Ali Khamenei, in his first public appearance after the ceasefire was announced, claimed Tehran had delivered a “slap to America’s face." Trump responded by suggesting the supreme leader own up to the fact Iran “got beat to hell. The president also said he was backing off reviewing any immediate sanction relief, because of Khamenei's heated comments.

White House officials say the US and Iran are already in early discussions about resuming negotiations that had ended after Israel began launching strikes. But Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says there's no agreement in place to restart talks.

It's unclear if Iran's leadership is ready to come to the table so soon after the fighting has ended — especially if Trump holds to the position that Iran must give up nuclear enrichment for even civilian use. And Trump has offered conflicting statements about his commitment to talks. “We may sign an agreement,” he said Wednesday at a NATO summit press conference. He added, “I don’t think it’s that necessary.”

What role Iran's supreme leader will play

Khamenei's age and recent diminished appearance have raised questions about the scope of his involvement in US-Iran relations and Iran's response to both American and Israeli strikes. But despite having spent the last few weeks in a bunker as threats to his life escalated, there is little indication that Khamenei does not still reign supreme over the country's massive military and governmental operations.

Khamenei has ruled three times longer than his predecessor, the late Ruhollah Khomeini, and has shaped life for the country's more than 90 million people perhaps even more dramatically.

He entrenched the system of rule by the “mullahs,” or Shiite Muslim clerics. That secured his place in the eyes of hard-liners as the unquestionable authority, below only that of God. At the same time, Khamenei built the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard into the dominant force in Iran’s military and internal politics.

How Iran might strike back Iran's retaliatory missile attacks on a US base in Qatar following the American bombardment were sloughed off by the White House as a half-hearted, face-saving measure. The US was forewarned and the salvos were easily fended off.

Yet Iran remains a persistent threat, particularly via cyberwarfare. Hackers backing Tehran have already targeted US banks, defense contractors and oil industry companies — but so far have not caused widespread disruptions to critical infrastructure or the economy.

The US Department of Homeland Security last week issued a public bulletin warning of increased Iranian cyber threats. And the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, is urging organizations that operate critical infrastructure like water systems, pipelines or power plants to stay vigilant.

Whether the Israel-Iran ceasefire will hold It remains a fragile peace.

Immediately following the US strikes, Trump got on the phone with Netanyahu and told the Israeli leader not to expect further US offensive military action, according to a senior White House official who was not authorized to comment publicly about the sensitive diplomatic talks.

But even as he agreed to deal, Netanyahu made clear that Israel will strike again “if anyone in Iran tries to revive this project.”

The ceasefire deal came without any agreement from Tehran on dismantling its nuclear program. Khamenei claims the attacks “did nothing significant” to Iran's nuclear facilities.

Trump expressed confidence that Iran, at the moment, has no interest in getting its nuclear program back up. “The last thing they’re thinking about right now is enriched uranium,” Trump said.

Still, Trump says he expects Iran to open itself to international inspection to verify that it doesn’t restart its nuclear program by the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN nuclear watchdog, or some other organization "that we respect, including ourselves.”

Whether Trump can now press Netanyahu on Gaza

The president took a big gamble with his decision to order strikes on Iran's nuclear fortress.

As a candidate, he promised to quickly end Russia's brutal war in Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza, but has failed to find a resolution to either. He also vowed to keep the US military out of foreign conflicts.

But after helping Israel with US strikes on Iran, Trump — in conversations with Netanyahu and other world leaders in recent days — has made clear he wants a deal completed soon, according to two people familiar with the private discussions and were not authorized to comment publicly.

On Friday, Trump told reporters, “We think within the next week we’re going to get a ceasefire.”

Trump didn't offer any further explanation for his optimism. But Israeli Minister for Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer is expected to be in Washington this week for talks on a Gaza ceasefire, Iran and other matters, according to an official familiar with the matter. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media.