Amman Tripartite Summit: First Step towards New Middle East

Jordan's King Abdullah II, center, arrives with Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi, left, and Iraqi PM Mustafa al-Kadhimi, right, ahead of the summit in the capital Amman. (Jordanian Royal Palace – AFP)
Jordan's King Abdullah II, center, arrives with Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi, left, and Iraqi PM Mustafa al-Kadhimi, right, ahead of the summit in the capital Amman. (Jordanian Royal Palace – AFP)
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Amman Tripartite Summit: First Step towards New Middle East

Jordan's King Abdullah II, center, arrives with Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi, left, and Iraqi PM Mustafa al-Kadhimi, right, ahead of the summit in the capital Amman. (Jordanian Royal Palace – AFP)
Jordan's King Abdullah II, center, arrives with Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi, left, and Iraqi PM Mustafa al-Kadhimi, right, ahead of the summit in the capital Amman. (Jordanian Royal Palace – AFP)

Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi received an unprecedented warm welcome when he landed in the Jordanian capital Amman on Tuesday. King Abdullah II swept aside protocols and personally received the premier at the airport.

The Iraqi PM was in Jordan for a tripartite summit that included King Abdullah and Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi.

Kadhimi, who had just returned from a successful visit to the United States, was seeking to employ Iraq’s financial and human resources to boost the concept of partnership and veer away from pervious government’s reliance on bilateral cooperation with Iran and Turkey, said sources close to the premier. Such a dependence has kept Iraq away from its Arab fold: Iraq’s trade balance with Turkey is estimated at 10 to 12 billion dollars annually and 8 to ten billion dollars with Iran, while the balance is at a meager 2 billion with Saudi Arabia and hardly any better with Egypt and Jordan.

The signs of a new chapter of Iraqi relations with its Arab neighbors first emerged with the formation of the Iraqi-Saudi coordination council during the term of former Iraqi PM Haidar al-Abadi. These relations were boosted with his successor, Adel Abdul Mahdi, before he encountered numerous challenges, notably massive popular protests that led to his resignation in late 2019. Abdul Mahdi had held summits with King Abdullah and Sisi in each of Cairo and Amman, but circumstances worked against him and the meetings never yielded any significant results.

Kadhimi will now try to pick up from where his successors left off. He has just returned with great American political and economic support and sought to propose the project of a “new Middle East”. This project will follow European example, whereby capital and technology would flow more freely.

Member of the Iraqi parliamentary foreign relations committee, Dr. Dhafer al-Ani said the tripartite cooperation between Baghdad, Amman and Cairo was not born yesterday, but dates back to several years.

He told Asharq Al-Awsat: “Iraq needs the Arab fold, which would empower it in confronting regional problems from Iran and Turkey.” He added that no outstanding years-long unresolved issues exist between Iraq, Jordan and Egypt, which will facilitate the process of bolstering their relations.

In fact, he continued, Jordan and Egypt are both looking forward to striking promising economic and oil deals with Iraq. Iraq has always provided them with their oil needs. Cairo and Amman, in turn, view Baghdad as an important strategic partner in the region.

The tripartite summit may yield political and economic results if Iraq were to open up economically, which will in turn open up political opportunities and boost its Arab standing.

Iraqi MP Aras Habib Karim told Asharq Al-Awsat that Iraq needs to adopt a policy of regional and international openness that prioritizes its national interest, especially when it comes to economic, energy and investment affairs.



Legal Threats Close in on Israel's Netanyahu, Could Impact Ongoing Wars

The International Criminal Court (ICC) building is pictured on November 21, 2024 in The Hague. (Photo by Laurens van PUTTEN / ANP / AFP) / Netherlands OUT
The International Criminal Court (ICC) building is pictured on November 21, 2024 in The Hague. (Photo by Laurens van PUTTEN / ANP / AFP) / Netherlands OUT
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Legal Threats Close in on Israel's Netanyahu, Could Impact Ongoing Wars

The International Criminal Court (ICC) building is pictured on November 21, 2024 in The Hague. (Photo by Laurens van PUTTEN / ANP / AFP) / Netherlands OUT
The International Criminal Court (ICC) building is pictured on November 21, 2024 in The Hague. (Photo by Laurens van PUTTEN / ANP / AFP) / Netherlands OUT

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces legal perils at home and abroad that point to a turbulent future for the Israeli leader and could influence the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, analysts and officials say.
The International Criminal Court (ICC) stunned Israel on Thursday by issuing arrest warrants for Netanyahu and his former defense chief Yoav Gallant for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in the 13-month-old Gaza conflict. The bombshell came less than two weeks before Netanyahu is due to testify in a corruption trial that has dogged him for years and could end his political career if he is found guilty. He has denied any wrongdoing. While the domestic bribery trial has polarized public opinion, the prime minister has received widespread support from across the political spectrum following the ICC move, giving him a boost in troubled times.
Netanyahu has denounced the court's decision as antisemitic and denied charges that he and Gallant targeted Gazan civilians and deliberately starved them.
"Israelis get really annoyed if they think the world is against them and rally around their leader, even if he has faced a lot of criticism," said Yonatan Freeman, an international relations expert at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
"So anyone expecting that the ICC ruling will end this government, and what they see as a flawed (war) policy, is going to get the opposite," he added.
A senior diplomat said one initial consequence was that Israel might be less likely to reach a rapid ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon or secure a deal to bring back hostages still held by Hamas in Gaza.
"This terrible decision has ... badly harmed the chances of a deal in Lebanon and future negotiations on the issue of the hostages," said Ofir Akunis, Israel's consul general in New York.
"Terrible damage has been done because these organizations like Hezbollah and Hamas ... have received backing from the ICC and thus they are likely to make the price higher because they have the support of the ICC," he told Reuters.
While Hamas welcomed the ICC decision, there has been no indication that either it or Hezbollah see this as a chance to put pressure on Israel, which has inflicted huge losses on both groups over the past year, as well as on civilian populations.
IN THE DOCK
The ICC warrants highlight the disconnect between the way the war is viewed here and how it is seen by many abroad, with Israelis focused on their own losses and convinced the nation's army has sought to minimize civilian casualties.
Michael Oren, a former Israeli ambassador to the United States, said the ICC move would likely harden resolve and give the war cabinet license to hit Gaza and Lebanon harder still.
"There's a strong strand of Israeli feeling that runs deep, which says 'if we're being condemned for what we are doing, we might just as well go full gas'," he told Reuters.
While Netanyahu has received wide support at home over the ICC action, the same is not true of the domestic graft case, where he is accused of bribery, breach of trust and fraud.
The trial opened in 2020 and Netanyahu is finally scheduled to take the stand next month after the court rejected his latest request to delay testimony on the grounds that he had been too busy overseeing the war to prepare his defense.
He was due to give evidence last year but the date was put back because of the war. His critics have accused him of prolonging the Gaza conflict to delay judgment day and remain in power, which he denies. Always a divisive figure in Israel, public trust in Netanyahu fell sharply in the wake of the Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas assault on southern Israel that caught his government off guard, cost around 1,200 lives.
Israel's subsequent campaign has killed more than 44,000 people and displaced nearly all Gaza's population at least once, triggering a humanitarian catastrophe, according to Gaza officials.
The prime minister has refused advice from the state attorney general to set up an independent commission into what went wrong and Israel's subsequent conduct of the war.
He is instead looking to establish an inquiry made up only of politicians, which critics say would not provide the sort of accountability demanded by the ICC.
Popular Israeli daily Yedioth Ahronoth said the failure to order an independent investigation had prodded the ICC into action. "Netanyahu preferred to take the risk of arrest warrants, just as long as he did not have to form such a commission," it wrote on Friday.
ARREST THREAT
The prime minister faces a difficult future living under the shadow of an ICC warrant, joining the ranks of only a few leaders to have suffered similar humiliation, including Libya's Muammar Gaddafi and Serbia's Slobodan Milosevic.
It also means he risks arrest if he travels to any of the court's 124 signatory states, including most of Europe.
One place he can safely visit is the United States, which is not a member of the ICC, and Israeli leaders hope US President-elect Donald Trump will bring pressure to bear by imposing sanctions on ICC officials.
Mike Waltz, Trump's nominee for national security advisor, has already promised tough action: "You can expect a strong response to the antisemitic bias of the ICC & UN come January,” he wrote on X on Friday. In the meantime, Israeli officials are talking to their counterparts in Western capitals, urging them to ignore the arrest warrants, as Hungary has already promised to do.
However, the charges are not going to disappear soon, if at all, meaning fellow leaders will be increasingly reluctant to have relations with Netanyahu, said Yuval Shany, a senior fellow at the Israel Democracy Institute.
"In a very direct sense, there is going to be more isolation for the Israeli state going forward," he told Reuters.