Geagea: Mar Mikhael Agreement Reason Behind Lebanon Crisis

Geagea and his wife, MP Strida, attend the annual memorial Mass in commemoration of the "Martyrs of the Lebanese Resistance" on Sunday | NNA
Geagea and his wife, MP Strida, attend the annual memorial Mass in commemoration of the "Martyrs of the Lebanese Resistance" on Sunday | NNA
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Geagea: Mar Mikhael Agreement Reason Behind Lebanon Crisis

Geagea and his wife, MP Strida, attend the annual memorial Mass in commemoration of the "Martyrs of the Lebanese Resistance" on Sunday | NNA
Geagea and his wife, MP Strida, attend the annual memorial Mass in commemoration of the "Martyrs of the Lebanese Resistance" on Sunday | NNA

Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea strongly attacked Sunday the ruling authority and Hezbollah, saying that the current situation in Lebanon was caused by the Mar Mikhael agreement signed between Hezbollah and the Free Patriotic Movement, headed back then by current President General Michel Aoun.

“Instead of Hezbollah falling within the confines of the state, the state entered more and more under Hezbollah. Every opportunity for the establishment of an actual state was destroyed, and relations between the Lebanese groups became tense .. and Lebanon fell into an unprecedented Arab and international isolation,” Geagea said.

The LF leader’s comments came at the end of the annual memorial Mass in commemoration of the "Martyrs of the Lebanese Resistance", which was held Sunday at the Lebanese Forces general headquarters in Maarab, under the auspices of Maronite Patriarch Bechara al-Rai, represented by Bishop Antoine Nabil Al-Andari.

Geagea defended Rai, who some accused of dealing with Israel after he proposed the Lebanon neutrality initiative.

He demanded Hezbollah hand over the decision of war and peace to the state and stop its blatant, unjustified interference in the affairs and concerns of more than one Arab country.

“The time has come for Hezbollah to take the difficult but right decision by placing itself at the service of Lebanon, its people, its security and its interests, instead of remaining in the service of the Islamic Republic and its interests, at the expense of the people of Lebanon, their security, stability, livelihood, present, and future,” the LF leader said.

He lamented how "the Lebanese state today is captive to the existing alliance between the weapons system on one hand, and the system of corruption on the other hand," adding that "this infernal alliance has depleted the state's financial, economic, and human capabilities."

Geagea also considered that the October 17 uprising changed the course of events and mentalities, but it will not bear fruit without a clear roadmap.

“After the early parliamentary elections, we will be before a new parliament, a new government, and a new authority...and when the hour of the presidential elections strikes, we will have a word, a decision, and a position, and we will not accept that this election be subject to bargaining, deals, and a means of striking the unbridled popular will that is yearning for change," he said.



Lebanon’s War Losses Double Compared to 2006

Rescuers and aid workers search for survivors at the site of an Israeli airstrike in eastern Lebanon (AFP)
Rescuers and aid workers search for survivors at the site of an Israeli airstrike in eastern Lebanon (AFP)
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Lebanon’s War Losses Double Compared to 2006

Rescuers and aid workers search for survivors at the site of an Israeli airstrike in eastern Lebanon (AFP)
Rescuers and aid workers search for survivors at the site of an Israeli airstrike in eastern Lebanon (AFP)

A comparison of the current human and material losses from the ongoing Hezbollah-Israel conflict with those from the July 2006 war shows that current losses have doubled.

Experts warn that the reconstruction funds and aid pledged to Lebanon 18 years ago may have limited impact once the war ends.

Total Losses

Mohammad Shamseddine, a researcher from Information International, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the death toll has risen from 900 in 2006 to 2,865 in the current conflict (as of October 31, 2024), with the number increasing daily. The number of wounded was 4,000 in 2006, but it has now exceeded 13,047.

In 2006, 600,000 people were displaced, while today that number has surpassed 1.2 million. Of these, 189,174 are in shelters. A total of 358,133 Syrians and 172,604 Lebanese have fled to Syria, and 120,000 have sought refuge in other countries.

Lebanese Economy and Trade Minister Amin Salam estimated that Lebanon’s total economic losses from the current conflict have reached $20 billion. However, economic associations report direct losses between $10 billion and $12 billion, covering damage to key sectors, homes, buildings, and infrastructure.

These figures align with estimates from Shamseddine, who believes direct and indirect losses are around $10 billion.

Of this, $4 billion occurred from October 8, 2023, to September 17, 2024 (when the conflict was mostly limited to the south), and $7 billion from September 17 to October 31, 2024, after Israel expanded the war. For comparison, losses during the 2006 war totaled $5.3 billion.

In 2006, infrastructure damage was valued at $900 million, higher than the current war's $570 million in infrastructure losses.

Housing losses in 2006 totaled $2.2 billion, while they have now surpassed $4.26 billion. Mohammad Shamseddine points out that commercial losses were similar in both conflicts, at $4.7 million.

Agricultural and environmental losses in 2006 were $450 million, but now exceed $900 million. Indirect economic damages were $1.2 billion in 2006, while they have now surpassed $3.38 billion.

One notable difference is the number of airstrikes: from October 8, 2023, to October 31, 2024, there were 11,647, compared to just 3,670 during the 33-day 2006 war.