Border Demarcation with Israel Will Introduce New Factors to Lebanese Govt.

An Israeli crane erects a wall near border, as seen from Lebanon, near Lebanon's Naqoura, March 6, 2018. (Reuters)
An Israeli crane erects a wall near border, as seen from Lebanon, near Lebanon's Naqoura, March 6, 2018. (Reuters)
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Border Demarcation with Israel Will Introduce New Factors to Lebanese Govt.

An Israeli crane erects a wall near border, as seen from Lebanon, near Lebanon's Naqoura, March 6, 2018. (Reuters)
An Israeli crane erects a wall near border, as seen from Lebanon, near Lebanon's Naqoura, March 6, 2018. (Reuters)

Lebanon will enter a new political phase after it accepted to hold UN-sponsored and US-mediated negotiations with Israel to demarcate disputed maritime and land borders.

Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri had effectively kicked off this new phase by announcing the framework agreement that was reached between Lebanon and Israel to launch the talks.

A prominent opposition source called for “political protection” for the speaker instead of jumping to conclusions over the purposes of the negotiations even before they have even started, especially amid speculation that they may pave the way for the normalization of ties between Lebanon and Israel.

The talks, which will be led by the army on the Lebanese side, are set to begin next week.

The source called for closely monitoring Hezbollah’s reaction to the talks, and that of its backer Iran, to determine the reasons that prompted the turnaround over the negotiations. The party was seen as biding time and waiting on diplomatic efforts that may resolve the border dispute.

They noted that Berri would not have announced the framework agreement had he not reached an understanding with his ally, Hezbollah, thereby warding off any Shiite criticism against him for taking such an unprecedented move towards Israel.

The source wondered why Hezbollah allowed Berri to make the announcement in the first place. Does the party need to bide time with Iran until the American presidential elections are held? It also asked whether Hezbollah deliberately chose Washington, instead of Paris, as the mediator because it believes that it alone can offer political gains.

France has been spearheading efforts to push much-needed reform in Lebanon in wake of its unprecedented stifling economic crisis. French President Emmanuel Macron’s efforts have hit a wall however, with Lebanese officials failing to form a new government capable of kicking off the reform.

The collapse of this effort and the agreement to launch talks with Israel are seen as a move by the “Shiite duo” of Hezbollah and Berri’s Amal movement, with Iran’s backing, to normalize American-Shiite ties, while still appeasing their other ally, Syria. The decision to exclude the disputed southern Shebaa Farms from the demarcation talks are seen as a gesture to assure Damascus that the talks with Israel will not strike a deal at its expense or that excludes it.



Legal Threats Close in on Israel's Netanyahu, Could Impact Ongoing Wars

The International Criminal Court (ICC) building is pictured on November 21, 2024 in The Hague. (Photo by Laurens van PUTTEN / ANP / AFP) / Netherlands OUT
The International Criminal Court (ICC) building is pictured on November 21, 2024 in The Hague. (Photo by Laurens van PUTTEN / ANP / AFP) / Netherlands OUT
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Legal Threats Close in on Israel's Netanyahu, Could Impact Ongoing Wars

The International Criminal Court (ICC) building is pictured on November 21, 2024 in The Hague. (Photo by Laurens van PUTTEN / ANP / AFP) / Netherlands OUT
The International Criminal Court (ICC) building is pictured on November 21, 2024 in The Hague. (Photo by Laurens van PUTTEN / ANP / AFP) / Netherlands OUT

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces legal perils at home and abroad that point to a turbulent future for the Israeli leader and could influence the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, analysts and officials say.
The International Criminal Court (ICC) stunned Israel on Thursday by issuing arrest warrants for Netanyahu and his former defense chief Yoav Gallant for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in the 13-month-old Gaza conflict. The bombshell came less than two weeks before Netanyahu is due to testify in a corruption trial that has dogged him for years and could end his political career if he is found guilty. He has denied any wrongdoing. While the domestic bribery trial has polarized public opinion, the prime minister has received widespread support from across the political spectrum following the ICC move, giving him a boost in troubled times.
Netanyahu has denounced the court's decision as antisemitic and denied charges that he and Gallant targeted Gazan civilians and deliberately starved them.
"Israelis get really annoyed if they think the world is against them and rally around their leader, even if he has faced a lot of criticism," said Yonatan Freeman, an international relations expert at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
"So anyone expecting that the ICC ruling will end this government, and what they see as a flawed (war) policy, is going to get the opposite," he added.
A senior diplomat said one initial consequence was that Israel might be less likely to reach a rapid ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon or secure a deal to bring back hostages still held by Hamas in Gaza.
"This terrible decision has ... badly harmed the chances of a deal in Lebanon and future negotiations on the issue of the hostages," said Ofir Akunis, Israel's consul general in New York.
"Terrible damage has been done because these organizations like Hezbollah and Hamas ... have received backing from the ICC and thus they are likely to make the price higher because they have the support of the ICC," he told Reuters.
While Hamas welcomed the ICC decision, there has been no indication that either it or Hezbollah see this as a chance to put pressure on Israel, which has inflicted huge losses on both groups over the past year, as well as on civilian populations.
IN THE DOCK
The ICC warrants highlight the disconnect between the way the war is viewed here and how it is seen by many abroad, with Israelis focused on their own losses and convinced the nation's army has sought to minimize civilian casualties.
Michael Oren, a former Israeli ambassador to the United States, said the ICC move would likely harden resolve and give the war cabinet license to hit Gaza and Lebanon harder still.
"There's a strong strand of Israeli feeling that runs deep, which says 'if we're being condemned for what we are doing, we might just as well go full gas'," he told Reuters.
While Netanyahu has received wide support at home over the ICC action, the same is not true of the domestic graft case, where he is accused of bribery, breach of trust and fraud.
The trial opened in 2020 and Netanyahu is finally scheduled to take the stand next month after the court rejected his latest request to delay testimony on the grounds that he had been too busy overseeing the war to prepare his defense.
He was due to give evidence last year but the date was put back because of the war. His critics have accused him of prolonging the Gaza conflict to delay judgment day and remain in power, which he denies. Always a divisive figure in Israel, public trust in Netanyahu fell sharply in the wake of the Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas assault on southern Israel that caught his government off guard, cost around 1,200 lives.
Israel's subsequent campaign has killed more than 44,000 people and displaced nearly all Gaza's population at least once, triggering a humanitarian catastrophe, according to Gaza officials.
The prime minister has refused advice from the state attorney general to set up an independent commission into what went wrong and Israel's subsequent conduct of the war.
He is instead looking to establish an inquiry made up only of politicians, which critics say would not provide the sort of accountability demanded by the ICC.
Popular Israeli daily Yedioth Ahronoth said the failure to order an independent investigation had prodded the ICC into action. "Netanyahu preferred to take the risk of arrest warrants, just as long as he did not have to form such a commission," it wrote on Friday.
ARREST THREAT
The prime minister faces a difficult future living under the shadow of an ICC warrant, joining the ranks of only a few leaders to have suffered similar humiliation, including Libya's Muammar Gaddafi and Serbia's Slobodan Milosevic.
It also means he risks arrest if he travels to any of the court's 124 signatory states, including most of Europe.
One place he can safely visit is the United States, which is not a member of the ICC, and Israeli leaders hope US President-elect Donald Trump will bring pressure to bear by imposing sanctions on ICC officials.
Mike Waltz, Trump's nominee for national security advisor, has already promised tough action: "You can expect a strong response to the antisemitic bias of the ICC & UN come January,” he wrote on X on Friday. In the meantime, Israeli officials are talking to their counterparts in Western capitals, urging them to ignore the arrest warrants, as Hungary has already promised to do.
However, the charges are not going to disappear soon, if at all, meaning fellow leaders will be increasingly reluctant to have relations with Netanyahu, said Yuval Shany, a senior fellow at the Israel Democracy Institute.
"In a very direct sense, there is going to be more isolation for the Israeli state going forward," he told Reuters.