US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is seeking to “set the tempo" among the member states of the Small Group on Syria regarding a number of files, including the political process and the Russian refugee conference scheduled in Damascus in mid-November.
The Group consists of the foreign ministers of Egypt, France, Germany, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the United Kingdom, and the United States and works to support “a political settlement of the Syrian crisis on the basis of UN Security Council Resolution 2254 and the efforts of UN Envoy Geir Pederson for a political solution that guarantees the safety, territorial integrity, and sovereignty of Syria, and leads to the withdrawal of all foreign forces that came into the country after 2011.”
US officials had reiterated, on more than one occasion, the need for the withdrawal of all foreign forces, including Iranian militants, from Syria, with the exception of the Russian army, which signed agreements with its Syrian counterpart after entering the country in September 2015. Five states have currently their armies engaged in the conflict in the Middle Eastern country, including the United States, Russia, Iran, Turkey, and Israel.
It is commonly believed that the door to the implementation of Resolution 2254 is the Constitutional Committee, which has so far held three meetings and made very slow progress.
Pedersen has until now failed to organize a fourth round of talks due to the disagreement between the government and opposition delegations over the Committee’s agenda.
This issue will be tackled by the UN envoy in his upcoming meeting with Foreign Minister Walid al-Muallem and head of the government delegation to the Constitutional Committee, Ahmad Kuzbari, on Saturday and Sunday in Damascus.
According to Western officials, the Small Group will encourage “continued cooperation with the committee to ensure that progress is achieved in the discussions related to the constitution”, with the need for the fourth round to tackle “fundamental issues, including the holding of free and fair elections under the supervision of the United Nations according to Resolution 2254.”
Western countries had sought to persuade Pedersen to go one step further by holding certain parties, especially the government, responsible for the failure of previous “constitutional” meetings and their inability to make a fundamental breakthrough in their work. But the UN envoy preferred to focus on “discussing fundamental issues.”
Another crucial file is the refugee conference that the Russian and Syrian governments are organizing in Damascus on Nov. 11-12.
The invitation sent by the Syrian Foreign Ministry read that “the return of security and stability to large areas of the Syrian Arab Republic, as well as the reconstruction and renewal of infrastructure, represents a fundamental step to provide the adequate conditions for the return of refugees and displaced Syrians to their cities and villages to have a normal life.”
According to UNHCR statistics, the number of Syrian refugees in Turkey, Lebanon, Iraq, Jordan, and Egypt reached 5.6 million, including 3.5 million in Turkey (63.8 percent), 952,000 in Lebanon, and 673,000 in Jordan, in addition, about 7 million people who are internally displaced.
Damascus and Moscow are betting that the refugee conference would put Western countries in front of two options: boycott the initiative and then being accused by the two capitals of adopting double standards; or the return of a segment of Syrians and use this to pressure donor countries to transfer their contributions to Damascus instead of neighboring countries through the Brussels donor conference.
On the other hand, Washington and Western capitals have expressed reservations about the conference, citing several reasons, including reconstruction. European countries and the US link the contribution to reconstruction with “the implementation of a credible political process.”
Syrian experts have estimated the losses of the Syrian economy during the 9 years of war at about half a trillion USD.
Accordingly, the Small Group, in its recent joint statement, has adopted a precise language about this. It pointed to the “profound suffering” of the Syrian people after nearly 10 years of war amid the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic and the severe economic crisis, but stressed the importance of “safe and unhindered access” to humanitarian aid for all Syrians,” while urging the international community to “continue to support the Syrian refugees, and the countries and societies hosting them, so that the Syrians can voluntarily return to their homeland in safety, dignity, and security.”
The Small Group also opposed “forced demographic change and commits to disburse no assistance for any resettlement of Syrian refugees that is not in line with UNHCR standards.”
In its joint statement, the Group expressed the need “to reinforce efforts toward a political solution in line with UNSCR 2254 that must result in progress toward facilitating the safe, voluntary, and dignified return of IDPs and refugees, the release of Syrian detainees, and holding all those responsible for atrocities accountable.”
“There is no military solution that will bring peace, security, and stability to Syria. Progress on the political process as outlined in UNSCR 2254, in addition to the establishment of a nationwide ceasefire also as outlined in UNSCR 2254, remains the only path forward towards a better future for all Syrians,” the Small Group said in the joint statement.