Do Trump’s Statements Greenlight Egyptian Military Action over Nile Dam?

This handout picture taken on July 20, 2020 and released by Adwa Pictures on July 27 shows an aerial view of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile River in Guba, Ethiopia. (AFP)
This handout picture taken on July 20, 2020 and released by Adwa Pictures on July 27 shows an aerial view of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile River in Guba, Ethiopia. (AFP)
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Do Trump’s Statements Greenlight Egyptian Military Action over Nile Dam?

This handout picture taken on July 20, 2020 and released by Adwa Pictures on July 27 shows an aerial view of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile River in Guba, Ethiopia. (AFP)
This handout picture taken on July 20, 2020 and released by Adwa Pictures on July 27 shows an aerial view of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile River in Guba, Ethiopia. (AFP)

US President Donald Trump’s recent remarks that Egypt may resort to military action to resolve the Nile dam dispute have addressed a point that Cairo has always officially been keen to avoid.

Ethiopia on Saturday summoned the US ambassador over what it called an “incitement of war” between Ethiopia and Egypt from Trump over their dispute about the filling and operation of a massive hydropower dam.

Trump called on Friday for an agreement between the countries, but added it was a dangerous situation and that Cairo could end up “blowing up that dam”.

Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt have been locked in a bitter dispute over the filling and operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which remains unresolved although the reservoir behind the dam began filling in July.

Egypt says it is dependent on the Nile for more than 90% of its scarce fresh water supplies, and fears the dam could have a devastating effect on its economy.

Observers interpreted Trump’s controversial remarks as a greenlight for Egypt to carry out military action over the dam.

However, member of Egypt’s parliamentary defense and national security committee, Kamal Amer said the American leader’s statements “do not reflect Egypt’s intentions.”

“Egypt distances itself from such remarks,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

“Egypt will continue to pursue a fair and binding agreement through all peaceful means - and they are many. It refuses to use force against its African brothers,” he stressed.

Expert at the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, Hani Raslan, said Trump’s statements were more of a “strong warning” and “violent message” to Ethiopia rather than a declaration of Egyptian military action.

Trump was urging the need to reach a negotiated solution “even though he implied that the American administration was not averse to military action and it does not rule it out should Ethiopia continue to refuse any agreement,” he added.

He lamented that Washington was so late in making such a strong statement, explaining that had it done so months ago, perhaps a deal over the dam could have been reached and Ethiopia would not have been so emboldened.

Ultimately, Raslan tied Trump’s statements to the upcoming November US presidential elections, which means “they have little impact in making any changes on the ground.”

Despite Egypt’s denials that it will not pursue military action over the dam dispute, media reports emerge ever so often that it may be taking steps in that regard.

In June, South Sudan denied reports that it has agreed to an Egyptian request to set up a military base in Pagak city that is close to the Ethiopian border.

Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi soon after urged media in his country to refrain from speaking of any military action against Ethiopia. On Saturday, he stressed that Cairo was “waging a long negotiations battle.”



Climate Change-Worsened Floods Wreak Havoc in Africa

People carry possessions on a pirogue over flood water flowing over a main road in Odobere on October 22, 2024. (AFP)
People carry possessions on a pirogue over flood water flowing over a main road in Odobere on October 22, 2024. (AFP)
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Climate Change-Worsened Floods Wreak Havoc in Africa

People carry possessions on a pirogue over flood water flowing over a main road in Odobere on October 22, 2024. (AFP)
People carry possessions on a pirogue over flood water flowing over a main road in Odobere on October 22, 2024. (AFP)

Every rainy season for the past 12 years, floods have swept through 67-year-old Idris Egbunu's house in central Nigeria.

It is always the same story -- the Niger River bursts its banks and the waters claim his home for weeks on end, until he can return and take stock of the damage.

The house then needs cleaning, repairs, fumigation and repainting, until the next rainy season.

Flooding is almost inevitable around Lokoja in Nigeria's Kogi state, where Africa's third-longest river meets its main tributary, the Benue.

But across vast areas of Africa, climate change has thrown weather patterns into disarray and made flooding much more severe, especially this year.

Devastating inundations are threatening the survival of millions of residents on the continent. Homes have been wrecked and crops ruined, jeopardizing regional food security.

Torrential rains and severe flooding have affected around 6.9 million people in West and Central Africa so far in 2024, according to data from the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA).

- 'Very, very bad' -

Residents and officials around Lokoja said floods first became more severe in Kogi state in 2012 and have battered the area each year since.

In 2022, Nigeria's worst floods in a decade killed more than 500 people and displaced 1.4 million.

Sandra Musa, an emergency agency adviser to the Kogi state governor, believes this year's flooding has not yet reached the level seen in 2022, but warned it was "very, very bad".

"Usually at this time of year the water level drops, but here it's rising again," she told AFP, estimating that the floods have affected around two million people in the state.

Fatima Bilyaminu, a 31-year-old mother and shopkeeper, can only get to her house in the Adankolo district of Lokoja by boat as a result of the waters.

The swollen river rises almost to the windows, while water hyacinths float past the crumbling building.

"I lost everything. My bed, my cushioned chair, my wardrobe, my kitchen equipment," she told AFP.

With no money to rent a house elsewhere, she has little choice but to keep living in the small concrete building and repair it, flood after flood.

- Damage and displacement -

Africa is bearing the brunt of climate change, even though it only contributes around four percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, according to a recent report by the World Meteorological Organization.

This year is set to overtake 2023 as the world's hottest on record.

"This year has been unusual in terms of the amount of rainfall, with many extreme events, which is one of the signs of climate change," said Aida Diongue-Niang from the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

In the Sahel region bordering the Sahara desert, the volume, intensity and duration of rainfall was "unprecedented," according to Amadou Diakite from the Mali Meteo weather service.

In Niger, some regions recorded up to 200 percent more rain than in previous years, the national meteorological service said. The waters put at risk the historic city center of Agadez, a UNESCO World Heritage site in the desert north.

Over the border in Chad, torrential rains since July have killed at least 576 people and affected 1.9 million, more than 10 percent of the population, according to a report published by the OCHA.

In neighboring Cameroon, the UN body said torrential rains had destroyed more than 56,000 homes and flooded tens of thousands of hectares of crops.

Floodwaters swept through the capital Conakry in Guinea, while floods in Monrovia reignited debates over building another city to serve as Liberia's capital.

Entire districts of Mali's capital Bamako were submerged, leaving waste and liquid from septic tanks seeping across the streets.

In August, downpours caused the roof of the centuries-old Tomb of Askia in the Malian city of Gao to collapse.

Several countries have postponed the start of the school year as a result of the floods.

- 'Keep getting worse' -

"It used to be a decadal cycle of flooding, and we're now into a yearly cycle," said Clair Barnes, a researcher at the Centre for Environmental Policy at Imperial College London.

"This is only going to keep getting worse if we keep burning fossil fuels," she said.

As global temperatures rise, extreme weather events will increase in frequency and intensity, scientists warn.

Experts estimate that by 2030, up to 118 million Africans already living in poverty will be exposed to drought, floods and intense heat.

Building along riverbanks also poses a risk, Youssouf Sane of Senegal's meteorology agency said, urging governments to think about the relationship between climate change and urbanization.

But the IPCC's Diongue-Niang said the only way to tackle extreme weather was to limit greenhouse gas emissions.

"That doesn't fall to the region -- it falls to the whole of humanity," she said.