KAPSARC Study Analyzes Regional Electricity Demand After Energy Price Reform

Energy price reform contributes to reducing electricity consumption in Saudi Arabia (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Energy price reform contributes to reducing electricity consumption in Saudi Arabia (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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KAPSARC Study Analyzes Regional Electricity Demand After Energy Price Reform

Energy price reform contributes to reducing electricity consumption in Saudi Arabia (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Energy price reform contributes to reducing electricity consumption in Saudi Arabia (Asharq Al-Awsat)

King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC) has published the first study of its kind that analyzes regional electricity demand in the Saudi Arabia after energy price reforms.

The paper, prepared by the center’s researchers Jeyhun Mikayilov, Abdulelah Darandary, Ryan al-Yamani, Fakhri Hasanov and Hatem al-Atawi showed that residential electricity demand is determined by a variety of drivers, which vary from one area to another.

These drivers include, among other things, market concentration, regional wealth, population and income.

According to the study, dubbed “Regional Heterogeneous Drivers of Electricity Demand in Saudi Arabia: Modeling Regional Residential Electricity Demand,” a better understanding of regional electricity demand and its drivers may allow for tailored price reform and regional household assistance programs.

This is in addition to better anticipating demand responses and estimating the revenues they would get from future price reforms more accurately.

The impact of the 2018 price reforms led to a decline in the total residential electricity consumption of 9.1% nationwide, it noted.

Meanwhile, the central region ranks as the most affected region in the reduction of residential electricity consumption, which decreased to 10.7 percent followed by the eastern region with 8.8 percent, then the western and southern regions with 8.1 percent.

Researchers found that the price, income, weather, and population were considered the drivers of residential electricity consumption in each region.

The short-run impacts of price changes on demand were found to be significant for all regions, at around 0.1 percent, except for the eastern region, for which they were insignificant.

Notably, the eastern region has specific features. It has the highest income compared with the other regions.

The paper recommended utilization of smart meters and deploying strategies to promote the use of efficient appliances, as these meters offer consumers the ability to adjust their habits by monitoring their energy use and supplying them with the data.

Suppliers can also use smart meters to allow consumers to compare their energy use with that of other consumers.

In addition, the research suggests planning optimal housing types considering region-specific features, increasing the insulation capacities of the existing houses/buildings, setting centralized AC's in apartments. The population densities should also be considered in future city expansion plans to ensure sustainable energy consumption.

The study comes under the KAPSARC Global Energy Macroeconometric Model (KGEMM), aiming to analyze the effects of different policy choices, such as energy price and fiscal policy changes, on the economy, assess the effects of the Saudi Vision 2030 initiatives and its targets and link Saudi Arabia’s macroeconomic-energy environment with the global economy/energy markets.

In February 2020, KAPSARC announced making progress in the list of the best research centers regionally and globally, as it jumped 14 ranks in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) research centers.

It was ranked 15th out of 103 research centers regionally, and 13th out of 60 research centers globally specializing in energy policy.



Political Turmoil Shakes South Korea’s Economy

Protesters take part in a rally calling for the ouster of South Korea's impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol in front of the Gwanghwamun Gate of Gyeongbokgung Palace in Seoul on December 28, 2024. (Yonhap/AFP)
Protesters take part in a rally calling for the ouster of South Korea's impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol in front of the Gwanghwamun Gate of Gyeongbokgung Palace in Seoul on December 28, 2024. (Yonhap/AFP)
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Political Turmoil Shakes South Korea’s Economy

Protesters take part in a rally calling for the ouster of South Korea's impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol in front of the Gwanghwamun Gate of Gyeongbokgung Palace in Seoul on December 28, 2024. (Yonhap/AFP)
Protesters take part in a rally calling for the ouster of South Korea's impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol in front of the Gwanghwamun Gate of Gyeongbokgung Palace in Seoul on December 28, 2024. (Yonhap/AFP)

After South Korea's president and his replacement were both deposed over a failed bid to impose martial law, deepening political turmoil is threatening the country's currency and shaking confidence in its economy.

The won, which plunged Friday to its lowest level against the dollar since 2009, has been in near-constant decline since President Yoon Suk Yeol's attempt to scrap civilian rule in early December.

Business and consumer confidence in Asia's fourth-largest economy have also taken their biggest hit since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, according to figures released by the Bank of Korea.

Lawmakers impeached Yoon in mid-December on charges of insurrection, and on Friday they impeached his successor, acting president and prime minister Han Duck-soo, arguing that he refused demands to complete Yoon's removal from office and bring him to justice.

That thrust Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok into the additional roles of acting president and prime minister.

Choi has pledged to do all he can to end "this period of turmoil" and resolve the political crisis gripping the country.

- Constitutional question -

At the heart of the stalemate is the Constitutional Court, which will decide whether to uphold parliament's decision to impeach Yoon.

It must do so by a two-thirds majority, however. And because three of the court's nine seats are currently vacant, a unanimous vote is required to confirm the suspended president's removal.

Otherwise, Yoon will be automatically returned to office.

Lawmakers on Thursday nominated three judges to fill the vacant seats, but acting president Han refused to approve them, precipitating his own impeachment.

After an acrimonious day in which lawmakers from Yoon's party erupted in protest, the country's newest acting president sought to project calm.

"Although we are facing unexpected challenges once again, we are confident that our robust and resilient economic system will ensure rapid stabilization," Choi said Friday.

The 61-year-old career civil servant has inherited a 2025 budget -- adopted by the opposition alone -- which is 4.1 trillion won ($2.8 billion) less than the government had hoped for.

"There are already signs the crisis is having an impact on the economy," Gareth Leather of Capital Economics wrote in a note to clients, citing the dip in consumer and business confidence.

"The crisis is unfolding against a backdrop of a struggling economy," he added, with GDP growth expected to be just two percent this year, weighed down by a global slowdown in demand for semiconductors.

"Longer term, political polarization and resulting uncertainty could hold back investment in Korea," Leather wrote, citing the example of Thailand, another ultra-polarized country whose economy has stagnated since a coup in 2014.

- Democratic resilience? -

But other economists noted that the South Korean economy has so far weathered the chaos well.

As early as December 4, the day after Yoon declared martial law following a budget tussle with the opposition, the central bank promised to inject sufficient liquidity to stabilize the markets, and the Kospi Index has lost less than four percent since the start of the crisis.

"Like everyone, I was surprised when Yoon took those crazy measures," Park Sang-in, a professor of economics at Seoul National University, told AFP. "But there was a resilience of democracy."

"We come from being an underdeveloped country to one of the world's most dynamic economies in very few years, and Yoon Suk Yeol is a side effect of the growth," he added.

"Korean society was mature enough to counter his crazy actions."