Turkish Lira, The World’s Worst Currency in October

FILE PHOTO: A merchant counts Turkish lira banknotes at the Grand Bazaar in Istanbul, Turkey, March 29, 2019. REUTERS/Murad Sezer
FILE PHOTO: A merchant counts Turkish lira banknotes at the Grand Bazaar in Istanbul, Turkey, March 29, 2019. REUTERS/Murad Sezer
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Turkish Lira, The World’s Worst Currency in October

FILE PHOTO: A merchant counts Turkish lira banknotes at the Grand Bazaar in Istanbul, Turkey, March 29, 2019. REUTERS/Murad Sezer
FILE PHOTO: A merchant counts Turkish lira banknotes at the Grand Bazaar in Istanbul, Turkey, March 29, 2019. REUTERS/Murad Sezer

Turkey’s inflation marched higher in October, when the embattled lira shed value to finish as the world’s worst-performing currency.

Consumer prices last month rose 11.9% from a year earlier, slightly less than forecast by economists in a Bloomberg survey, whose median estimate was 12%.

Prices advanced a monthly 2.1% in October, Turkey’s statistics agency, or Turkstat, said Tuesday.

Food costs, which make up just over a fifth of the consumer goods basket, rose an annual 16.5%, up from 14.95% last month. Food inflation remains above the official year-end estimate of 13.5%

Energy inflation, a key driver of broader price pressures, was 3.98%, down from 6.77% in September

Core inflation -- which strips out volatile items such as food and energy -- climbed to 11.5% from 11.3% the previous month, a sign that some of the underlying cost pressures may be increasing

According to Bloomberg, Turkey’s currency was little changed after the data release and traded 0.3% weaker at 8.4471 per dollar as of 10:15 am in Istanbul

The lira reached historic lows and depreciated 7.5% against the dollar in October. It’s down more than 29% for the year.

Turkey’s central bank last week raised its inflation projections for the end of this year by more than three percentage points to 12.1%.

Retail prices in Istanbul, the country’s largest city, rose 2.45% on a monthly basis and an annual 12.4% in October



Oil Set for Steepest Weekly Decline in Two Years as Risk Subsides

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
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Oil Set for Steepest Weekly Decline in Two Years as Risk Subsides

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)

Oil prices rose on Friday though were set for their steepest weekly decline since March 2023, as the absence of significant supply disruption from the Iran-Israel conflict saw any risk premium evaporate.

Brent crude futures rose 50 cents, or 0.7%, to $68.23 a barrel by 1036 GMT while US West Texas Intermediate crude gained 49 cents, or nearly 0.8%, to $65.73.

During the 12-day war that started after Israel targeted Iran's nuclear facilities on June 13, Brent prices rose briefly to above $80 a barrel before slumping to $67 a barrel after US President Donald Trump announced an Iran-Israel ceasefire.

That put both contracts on course for a weekly fall of about 12%.

"The market has almost entirely shrugged off the geopolitical risk premiums from almost a week ago as we return to a fundamentals-driven market," said Rystad analyst Janiv Shah.

"The market also has to keep eyes on the OPEC+ meeting – we do expect room for one more month of an accelerated unwinding basis balances and structure, but the key question is how strong the summer demand indicators are showing up to be."

The OPEC+ members will meet on July 6 to decide on August production levels.

Prices were also being supported by multiple oil inventory reports that showed strong draws in the middle distillates, said Tamas Varga, a PVM Oil Associates analyst.

Data from the US Energy Information Administration on Wednesday showed crude oil and fuel inventories fell a week earlier, with refining activity and demand rising.

Meanwhile, data on Thursday showed that the independently held gasoil stocks at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) refining and storage hub fell to their lowest in over a year, while Singapore's middle distillates inventories declined as net exports climbed week on week.

Additionally, China's Iranian oil imports surged in June as shipments accelerated before the conflict and demand from independent refineries improved, analysts said.

China is the world's top oil importer and biggest buyer of Iranian crude. It bought more than 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) of Iranian crude from June 1-20, according to ship-tracker Vortexa, a record high based on the firm's data.