Arabs Doubt Biden Will Herald Change in the Middle East

Democratic US presidential nominee and former Vice President Joe Biden smiles during a drive-in campaign rally at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, US, November 2, 2020. (Reuters)
Democratic US presidential nominee and former Vice President Joe Biden smiles during a drive-in campaign rally at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, US, November 2, 2020. (Reuters)
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Arabs Doubt Biden Will Herald Change in the Middle East

Democratic US presidential nominee and former Vice President Joe Biden smiles during a drive-in campaign rally at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, US, November 2, 2020. (Reuters)
Democratic US presidential nominee and former Vice President Joe Biden smiles during a drive-in campaign rally at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, US, November 2, 2020. (Reuters)

Arab leaders congratulated Joe Biden on his election victory, but some people in the Middle East expressed cynicism over US policy even if he pursues diplomacy rather than President Donald Trump’s blunt approach to the region’s myriad problems.

“I was positive that Trump will not make it to a second term. He was too hostile almost towards everybody. He is (more) fit to be a mafia leader than a president of the United States,” said Adel Salman, 40, a high school English teacher in Baghdad.

“Let’s wait and see with the Biden presidency. And I’m saying to all Iraqis don’t count your chickens before they hatch. Is Biden better for Iraq? Let’s wait and see his acts.”

Biden may face some of his most complex foreign policy challenges in the region: from wars in Libya and Yemen to reassuring the United States’ Gulf allies that Washington can protect them from enemy Iran, even though he has said he would return to the international nuclear deal with Tehran.

“Trump was our friend, he loved Saudi Arabia and protected it from enemies. He handcuffed Iran. Biden will let Iran free again and this will hurt us and the whole region,” said Mohamed Al Anaizy, a Saudi Uber driver.

The leaders of Egypt, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and Jordan congratulated Biden.

Lebanese President Michel Aoun congratulated Biden and voiced hope for a “return to balance in American-Lebanese relations” during his term.

Nabil Boumonsef, deputy editor-in-chief of An-Nahar newspaper, told Reuters that the timing of the announcement of US sanctions on Friday on Aoun’s son-in-law Gebran Bassil, a former minister, sent a message that Washington would continue to go after Lebanese politicians over accusations of corruption and aiding Hezbollah.

“Biden is more flexible and rational, but I do not expect fundamental changes, though there may be an easing of pressure with respect to sanctions until Biden’s Middle East team is in place,” he said, according to Reuters.

Ibrahim Matraz, a Yemeni journalist, was also pessimistic about prospects for a shift in US policy after years of conflict that have ravaged his country.

“We shouldn’t forget that Biden was vice president in Obama’s administration when the war began.”

Trump’s allegations of fraud in the election without providing evidence prompted some Arabs to say Washington had no right to preach about democracy in their countries, where leaders often win 99 percent of the vote in rigged elections.

“These elections show the real face of America, a country where elections are a farce with the loser not conceding defeat and claiming he won,” said Adel al Natour, an industrialist in war-torn Syria, whose leaders face stringent US sanctions.



The Taiwan Strait: Crucial Waterway and Military Flashpoint

This photo taken and released by the Taiwan Coast Guard on October 14, 2024 shows a Taiwan Coast Guard personnel using binoculars on a patrol ship off Pengjia Islet (Keelung) while pointing at a Chinese Coast Guard ship sailing in the distance outside Taiwan's territorial waters. (Handout / Taiwan Coast Guard /AFP)
This photo taken and released by the Taiwan Coast Guard on October 14, 2024 shows a Taiwan Coast Guard personnel using binoculars on a patrol ship off Pengjia Islet (Keelung) while pointing at a Chinese Coast Guard ship sailing in the distance outside Taiwan's territorial waters. (Handout / Taiwan Coast Guard /AFP)
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The Taiwan Strait: Crucial Waterway and Military Flashpoint

This photo taken and released by the Taiwan Coast Guard on October 14, 2024 shows a Taiwan Coast Guard personnel using binoculars on a patrol ship off Pengjia Islet (Keelung) while pointing at a Chinese Coast Guard ship sailing in the distance outside Taiwan's territorial waters. (Handout / Taiwan Coast Guard /AFP)
This photo taken and released by the Taiwan Coast Guard on October 14, 2024 shows a Taiwan Coast Guard personnel using binoculars on a patrol ship off Pengjia Islet (Keelung) while pointing at a Chinese Coast Guard ship sailing in the distance outside Taiwan's territorial waters. (Handout / Taiwan Coast Guard /AFP)

China launched fighter jets and other aircraft over the Taiwan Strait on Monday as part of military drills aimed at sending a "warning" to the self-ruled island.

Here, AFP looks at the critical waterway and growing military flashpoint:

- Where is the Taiwan Strait? -

The strait separates the southeastern Chinese province of Fujian from the main island of Taiwan, home to around 23 million people.

At its narrowest point, just 130 kilometers (about 80 miles) of windswept water separates the two major landmasses, and several outlying Taiwanese islands -- including Kinmen and Matsu -- lie just a few kilometers from the Chinese coastline.

China and Taiwan have been governed separately since Mao Zedong's communist army won a civil war and sent the opposition nationalist forces fleeing across the strait in 1949.

- Why is it important? -

The strait is a critical artery for global shipping through which a huge volume of trade passes every day.

Around $2.45 trillion of goods -- more than a fifth of global maritime trade -- transited the strait in 2022, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank.

Taiwan plays an outsized role in the global economy thanks to producing over 90 percent of the world's most advanced computing chips, used in everything from smartphones to cutting-edge military equipment.

Analysts say a Chinese invasion would deal a catastrophic blow to these supply chains.

More minor disruptions, such as a blockade of the island, would cause costly shipping cancellations and diversions that would impact worldwide consumers.

"In the event of a long conflict over Taiwan, financial markets would tank, trade would shrivel, and supply chains would freeze, plunging the global economy into a tailspin," Robert A. Manning, a China expert at Washington's Stimson Center, wrote this year.

A report by the Rhodium Group estimated that a blockade of the island could cost firms dependent on Taiwan's chips $1.6 trillion in revenue annually.

An invasion would also endanger Taiwan's way of life, embodied by its democratic freedoms and boisterous elections.

It would also risk a wider conflict because the United States, while not recognizing Taiwan diplomatically, has an agreement to help the island defend itself.

- What has China announced? -

Beijing said that it had launched military exercises called "Joint Sword-2024B" in areas to the north, south and east of Taiwan.

The armed forces deployed fighter jets, bombers and warships in the strait, and also simulated a rocket strike, state media said.

The military also said it had deployed an aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, to "strike on maritime and ground targets in the waters and airspace to the east" of the island.

The coast guard said four fleets were conducting "inspections" around the Taiwanese mainland and disclosed other patrols near Matsu.

The drills "test the joint operations capabilities of the theater command's troops" while sending a "stern warning to the separatist acts of 'Taiwan Independence' forces", according to Chinese authorities.

Taiwan has condemned the actions as "irrational and provocative", and the US has called them "unwarranted".

- Has this happened before? -

In late May, three days after the inauguration of President Lai Ching-te, China launched Joint Sword-2024A, an apparent precursor to the latest drills.

The Chinese military also held three days of drills encircling Taiwan in April last year in response to Lai's predecessor, Tsai Ing-wen, meeting with then US Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

And in 2022, Beijing launched over a week of maneuvers after McCarthy's predecessor, Nancy Pelosi, visited Taiwan.

Several major crises punctuated the preceding decades, most recently in 1995-6, when China conducted missile tests around Taiwan.

It is not yet clear how the drills announced on Monday compare in scale and intensity to those of previous years.