GERD Talks in Doubt Following Unrest in Ethiopia

 Ethiopian army soldiers heading on a mission in the Amhara region near the border with the Tigray region, which Addis Ababa accuses of seeking secession. (Reuters)
Ethiopian army soldiers heading on a mission in the Amhara region near the border with the Tigray region, which Addis Ababa accuses of seeking secession. (Reuters)
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GERD Talks in Doubt Following Unrest in Ethiopia

 Ethiopian army soldiers heading on a mission in the Amhara region near the border with the Tigray region, which Addis Ababa accuses of seeking secession. (Reuters)
Ethiopian army soldiers heading on a mission in the Amhara region near the border with the Tigray region, which Addis Ababa accuses of seeking secession. (Reuters)

Internal conflicts in Ethiopia have cast a shadow over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dams negotiations with Egypt and Sudan, amid fears of further delays of the AU-sponsored talks.

This comes as the war in Tigray region has caused a crack in the foundation of the ruling Ethiopian coalition led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.

Last weekend, the Ethiopian army announced the war on the northern region following an attack by Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) on a federal military base in the area.

According to observers, the army’s military intervention, which left dozens of casualties, threatens to spark a wide civil war in the country.

Ahmed, however, has been seeking to reassure citizens by tweeting that Ethiopia is grateful to its friends who expressed concern.

“Fears of Ethiopia’s sliding into chaos are baseless and come as a result of a lack of understanding of our conditions.”

Dr. Hani Raslan, an expert on African affairs at Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies in Cairo, has expected the fighting to expand.

Abiy, who won 2019’s Nobel Peace Prize, has sacked prominent political figures in an attempt to control the situation. These include the army chief of staff, director of the intelligence service and the foreign minister, who was leading the GERD talks.

The unrest in Ethiopia is expected to affect the completion of GERD project, which Addis Ababa has been constructing since 2011 on the Blue Nile, the main tributary of the Nile water, and raises tensions with Egypt and Sudan.

Rislan told Asharq Al-Awsat that if the fighting continues, there will be no strong authority that can attain the political and strategic objectives of the dam.

Since July, the three countries have been in negotiations, hoping to reach an agreement over filling and operating the GERD.

Negotiations were suspended at the end of last August due to technical and legal disputes.

Egypt and Sudan fear that this will affect their shares in the Nile waters and stress the need to reach a binding agreement that guarantees the rights and interests of the three countries, and includes a mechanism for settling disputes.



Türkiye's Erdogan Hopes Instability in Syria Will Be Solved with Agreement

People and Syrian rescuers known as the White Helmets stand near building rubble at the site of a reported airstrike on a neighborhood in Syria's opposition-held northern city of Idlib on December 2, 2024. (AFP)
People and Syrian rescuers known as the White Helmets stand near building rubble at the site of a reported airstrike on a neighborhood in Syria's opposition-held northern city of Idlib on December 2, 2024. (AFP)
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Türkiye's Erdogan Hopes Instability in Syria Will Be Solved with Agreement

People and Syrian rescuers known as the White Helmets stand near building rubble at the site of a reported airstrike on a neighborhood in Syria's opposition-held northern city of Idlib on December 2, 2024. (AFP)
People and Syrian rescuers known as the White Helmets stand near building rubble at the site of a reported airstrike on a neighborhood in Syria's opposition-held northern city of Idlib on December 2, 2024. (AFP)

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Monday that he hoped the instability in Syria would be concluded with an agreement in line with the demands of the Syrian people.

"Our greatest wish is for Syria's territorial integrity and national unity to be preserved, and for the instability that has been going on for 13 years to end with consensus in line with the legitimate demands of the Syrian people," Erdogan said.

Speaking at a press conference, Erdogan also said Ankara was closely monitoring developments in neighboring Syria and taking the necessary measures to prevent harm to Türkiye's security.

Earlier on Monday, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said the recent rapid advance by opposition fighters in Syria shows that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad must reconcile with his own people and hold dialogue with the opposition

At a joint news conference in Ankara with his Iranian counterpart, Fidan said Türkiye and Iran, which support opposing sides in Syria’s civil war, have agreed to resume diplomatic efforts along with Russia to restore calm days after fighters launched a lightning offensive and captured almost all of the country’s largest city, Aleppo.

The swift advance by fighters that Türkiye supports was a huge embarrassment for Assad and it comes at a time when his allies — Iran and groups it backs and Russia — are preoccupied with their own conflicts.

The push is among the opposition’s strongest in years and raises the prospect of another violent front reopening in the Middle East when US-backed Israel is fighting Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, both Iranian-allied groups.

Fidan, whose country has backed forces opposed to Assad, blamed the recent flare-up of the conflict on the Syrian government’s refusal to enter a dialogue with the opposition that Türkiye supports.

“Recent developments show once again that Damascus must reconcile with its own people and the legitimate opposition,” the Turkish minister said. “Türkiye is ready to make all the necessary contribution toward this.”

Fidan’s comments emerged amid Turkish frustration that recent efforts toward a reconciliation with Assad have fallen flat. The comments indicated that the shock offensive launched by opposition fighters could be aimed at pressuring the Syrian leader to engage in political talks.

Türkiye has been seeking to normalize ties with Syria to address security threats from groups affiliated with Kurdish militants along its southern border and to help ensure the safe return of more than 3 million Syrian refugees. Assad has insisted that Türkiye’s withdrawal of its forces from northern Syria be a condition for any normalization between the two countries.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who visited Assad on Sunday before traveling to Ankara, reiterated Tehran’s full support for the Syrian government. Iran has been one of Assad’s principal political and military supporters and has deployed military advisers and forces after 2011 protests against Assad’s rule turned into an all-out war.

Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have deployed in Syria to back the government’s counteroffensive against the opposition, an Iraqi militia official and a war monitor said Monday.

According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a Britain-based opposition war monitor, some 200 Iraqi militiamen riding on pickups crossed into Syria overnight through the strategic al-Boukamal crossing. They were expected to deploy in Aleppo to support the Syrian army’s pushback against the opposition fighters, the monitor said.

The opposition offensive in Syria has caused concern among neighboring countries that the conflict could spill over. In Iraq, Interior Ministry spokesperson Brig. Gen. Miqdad Miri said security forces have deployed in greater numbers to protect their large border with Syria.

Fidan reiterated Türkiye’s support for Syria’s territorial integrity, but suggested that Türkiye would not hesitate to intervene against Syrian Kurdish militia groups that Ankara considers to be terrorists if they “exploit the environment of instability.”

“It was a mistake to ignore the legitimate demands of the opposition and for the (Syrian) regime not to sincerely engage in the political process,” Fidan said.

“Türkiye will never, ever allow terrorist organizations that seek to exploit the environment of instability, Fidan said. “We will eliminate any threat to our national security and our people wherever it emerges.”

Both Fidan and Araghchi said Türkiye, Iran and Russia would convene a new three-way meeting to address the conflict in Syria.

"We have decided to hold closer consultations and dialogue, and with God’s permission, we will cooperate to further improve the situation toward peace and stability in our region,” Araghchi said.

Russia, whose intervention in Syria’s civil war on behalf of Assad was crucial in turning the conflict in his favor, has said it will continue to support him.

“We continue our contacts at the appropriate level and analyze the situation,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters Monday. “A position will be formed regarding what is needed to stabilize the situation.”

As Syrian and Russian jets continued pounding targets, two airstrikes hit a group of four hospitals and the health directorate building in Idlib city, the Syrian Civil Defense force that operates in opposition-held areas, known as the White Helmets, said.

Two people in Idlib University Hospital died after their oxygen machines turned off following the strikes. Ceiling panels and doors at the hospital were blown off, while ambulances and vehicles outside were severely damaged according to footage taken by journalist with The Associated Press at the hospital.

At least 15 civilians were killed in Idlib city and province, according to the White Helmets.

Syrian Kurds were fleeing the fighting in large numbers after Turkish-backed fighters seized Tel Rifaat from rival US-backed Kurdish authorities. The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces largely withdrew and called for a humanitarian corridor to allow people to leave safely in convoys toward Aleppo and later to Kurdish-led northeast regions.