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GERD Talks in Doubt Following Unrest in Ethiopia

Ethiopian army soldiers heading on a mission in the Amhara region near the border with the Tigray region, which Addis Ababa accuses of seeking secession. (Reuters)
Ethiopian army soldiers heading on a mission in the Amhara region near the border with the Tigray region, which Addis Ababa accuses of seeking secession. (Reuters)
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GERD Talks in Doubt Following Unrest in Ethiopia

Ethiopian army soldiers heading on a mission in the Amhara region near the border with the Tigray region, which Addis Ababa accuses of seeking secession. (Reuters)
Ethiopian army soldiers heading on a mission in the Amhara region near the border with the Tigray region, which Addis Ababa accuses of seeking secession. (Reuters)

Internal conflicts in Ethiopia have cast a shadow over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dams negotiations with Egypt and Sudan, amid fears of further delays of the AU-sponsored talks.

This comes as the war in Tigray region has caused a crack in the foundation of the ruling Ethiopian coalition led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.

Last weekend, the Ethiopian army announced the war on the northern region following an attack by Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) on a federal military base in the area.

According to observers, the army’s military intervention, which left dozens of casualties, threatens to spark a wide civil war in the country.

Ahmed, however, has been seeking to reassure citizens by tweeting that Ethiopia is grateful to its friends who expressed concern.

“Fears of Ethiopia’s sliding into chaos are baseless and come as a result of a lack of understanding of our conditions.”

Dr. Hani Raslan, an expert on African affairs at Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies in Cairo, has expected the fighting to expand.

Abiy, who won 2019’s Nobel Peace Prize, has sacked prominent political figures in an attempt to control the situation. These include the army chief of staff, director of the intelligence service and the foreign minister, who was leading the GERD talks.

The unrest in Ethiopia is expected to affect the completion of GERD project, which Addis Ababa has been constructing since 2011 on the Blue Nile, the main tributary of the Nile water, and raises tensions with Egypt and Sudan.

Rislan told Asharq Al-Awsat that if the fighting continues, there will be no strong authority that can attain the political and strategic objectives of the dam.

Since July, the three countries have been in negotiations, hoping to reach an agreement over filling and operating the GERD.

Negotiations were suspended at the end of last August due to technical and legal disputes.

Egypt and Sudan fear that this will affect their shares in the Nile waters and stress the need to reach a binding agreement that guarantees the rights and interests of the three countries, and includes a mechanism for settling disputes.

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Lebanon Parliament Meets to Elect President

The Lebanese Parliament building a day before a session to elect the Lebanese president, in Beirut, Lebanon, 08 January 2025. (EPA)
The Lebanese Parliament building a day before a session to elect the Lebanese president, in Beirut, Lebanon, 08 January 2025. (EPA)
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Lebanon Parliament Meets to Elect President

The Lebanese Parliament building a day before a session to elect the Lebanese president, in Beirut, Lebanon, 08 January 2025. (EPA)
The Lebanese Parliament building a day before a session to elect the Lebanese president, in Beirut, Lebanon, 08 January 2025. (EPA)

Lebanon's lawmakers on Thursday began a session that could see army chief Joseph Aoun elected as president following a vacancy of more than two years, an AFP reporter said.
The 128-lawmaker chamber, which has failed to reach consensus a dozen times amid tensions between the Iran-backed Hezbollah movement and its opponents, started discussions at 11:00 am (0900 GMT).
The leading candidate, Lebanese army commander Joseph Aoun, no relation to the former president, is widely seen as the preferred candidate of the United States, whose assistance Lebanon will need as it seeks to rebuild after a 14-month conflict between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.
Hezbollah previously backed another candidate, Suleiman Franjieh, the leader of a small Christian party in northern Lebanon with close ties to former Syrian President Bashar Assad.
However, on Wednesday, Franjieh announced he had withdrawn from the race and endorsed Aoun, apparently clearing the way for the army chief.
Lebanon’s fractious sectarian power-sharing system is prone to deadlock, both for political and procedural reasons. The small, crisis-battered Mediterranean country has been through several extended presidential vacancies, with the longest lasting nearly 2 1/2 years between May 2014 and October 2016. It ended when former President Michel Aoun was elected.
As a sitting army commander, Joseph Aoun is technically barred from becoming president by Lebanon's constitution. The ban has been waived before, but it means that Aoun faces additional procedural hurdles.
Under normal circumstances, a presidential candidate in Lebanon can be elected by a two-thirds majority of the 128-member house in the first round of voting, or by a simple majority in a subsequent round.
But because of the constitutional issues surrounding his election, Aoun would need a two-thirds majority even in the second round.
Other contenders include Jihad Azour, a former finance minister who is now the director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the International Monetary Fund; and Elias al-Baysari, the acting head of Lebanon’s General Security agency.
A president is needed to appoint a permanent prime minister and cabinet. The caretaker government that has run Lebanon for the last two years has reduced powers because it was not appointed by a sitting president.
The next government will face daunting challenges apart from implementing the ceasefire agreement that ended the Israel-Hezbollah war and seeking funds for reconstruction.
Lebanon is six years into an economic and financial crisis that decimated the country's currency and wiped out the savings of many Lebanese. The cash-strapped state electricity company provides only a few hours of power a day.
The country's leaders reached a preliminary agreement with the IMF for a bail-out package in 2022 but have made limited progress on reforms required to clinch the deal.