Lebanon Refuses to ‘Gift’ Trump Progress in Border Talks with Israel

Lebanese and UN flags flutter as an aircraft flies in Naqoura ahead of talks between Israel and Lebanon on disputed waters, near the Lebanese-Israeli border. (Reuters)
Lebanese and UN flags flutter as an aircraft flies in Naqoura ahead of talks between Israel and Lebanon on disputed waters, near the Lebanese-Israeli border. (Reuters)
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Lebanon Refuses to ‘Gift’ Trump Progress in Border Talks with Israel

Lebanese and UN flags flutter as an aircraft flies in Naqoura ahead of talks between Israel and Lebanon on disputed waters, near the Lebanese-Israeli border. (Reuters)
Lebanese and UN flags flutter as an aircraft flies in Naqoura ahead of talks between Israel and Lebanon on disputed waters, near the Lebanese-Israeli border. (Reuters)

American sources revealed that they had from the start believed that the border negotiations between Lebanon and Israel would not reach any tangible results.

The sources, which were in contact with the State Department team that sponsored the negotiations, said that the talks were “hastily” arranged.

They revealed that they had urged the team against being hasty in launching the negotiations months before the American election. The team had sought a “political victory” in beginning the marine border talks, but the Trump administration’s defeat in the election means that it will not be employed for any political gain.

Moreover, the sources said the team failed in understanding the “mentality” of the Lebanese side of the negotiations. They explained that they underestimated the reasons that could motivate the Lebanese to “accept any settlement that could help them resolve their crippling economic crisis.”

Indeed, the reality on the ground showed that the ruling Lebanese class does not care in the slightest about easing the crisis and is happy to leave the country in the hands of an armed group – Hezbollah – that is following a non-Lebanese agenda.

“It was evident that the Lebanese negotiators will not offer a free gift” to Trump when he leaves office, said the sources.

They would rather offer it to Joe Biden’s administration amid Iran’s hopes that it could salvage the 2015 nuclear deal or end US economic sanctions against it, they continued.

Moreover, they remarked that the Lebanese side’s new conditions in the negotiations may not be aimed at obstructing them alone, but cornering the other team amid the Trump administration’s desire to achieve a victory in the final hours of its term.

Such a victory would leave the Biden administration in a weaker position should it continue on sponsoring the border talks, explained the sources.

The negotiations were launched in October, with delegations convening at a UN base to try to resolve a dispute about their maritime border that has held up hydrocarbon exploration in the potentially gas-rich area. They had held four rounds of talks before they were postponed indefinitely in November.

The talks are the culmination of three years of diplomacy by Washington.

Disagreement over the sea border has discouraged oil and gas exploration near the disputed line.

The sides presented contrasting maps for proposed borders in October.

Lebanese President Michel Aoun has said the demarcation line should start from the land point of Ras Naqoura, as defined under a 1923 agreement, and extend seaward in a trajectory that a security source said extends the disputed area to some 2,300 sq km (890 sq miles) from around 860 sq km.

Israeli Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz said Lebanon had now changed its position seven times and was contradicting its own assertions.



Trump Carves Up World and International Order with It

Analysts say talks to end the war in Ukraine 'could resemble a new Yalta'. TASS/AFP
Analysts say talks to end the war in Ukraine 'could resemble a new Yalta'. TASS/AFP
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Trump Carves Up World and International Order with It

Analysts say talks to end the war in Ukraine 'could resemble a new Yalta'. TASS/AFP
Analysts say talks to end the war in Ukraine 'could resemble a new Yalta'. TASS/AFP

By casting doubt on the world order, Donald Trump risks dragging the globe back into an era where great powers impose their imperial will on the weak, analysts warn.
Russia wants Ukraine, China demands Taiwan and now the US president seems to be following suit, whether by coveting Canada as the "51st US state", insisting "we've got to have" Greenland or kicking Chinese interests out of the Panama Canal.
Where the United States once defended state sovereignty and international law, Trump's disregard for his neighbors' borders and expansionist ambitions mark a return to the days when the world was carved up into spheres of influence.
As recently as Wednesday, US defense secretary Pete Hegseth floated the idea of an American military base to secure the Panama Canal, a strategic waterway controlled by the United States until 1999 which Trump's administration has vowed to "take back".
Hegseth's comments came nearly 35 years after the United States invaded to topple Panama's dictator Manuel Noriega, harking back to when successive US administrations viewed Latin America as "America's backyard".
"The Trump 2.0 administration is largely accepting the familiar great power claim to 'spheres of influence'," Professor Gregory O. Hall, of the University of Kentucky, told AFP.
Indian diplomat Jawed Ashraf warned that by "speaking openly about Greenland, Canada, Panama Canal", "the new administration may have accelerated the slide" towards a return to great power domination.
The empire strikes back
Since the end of the Cold War, the United States has posed as the custodian of an international order "based on the ideas of countries' equal sovereignty and territorial integrity", said American researcher Jeffrey Mankoff, of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
But those principles run counter to how Russia and China see their own interests, according to the author of "Empires of Eurasia: how imperial legacies shape international security".
Both countries are "themselves products of empires and continue to function in many ways like empires", seeking to throw their weight around for reasons of prestige, power or protection, Mankoff said.
That is not to say that spheres of influence disappeared with the fall of the Soviet Union.
"Even then, the US and Western allies sought to expand their sphere of influence eastward into what was the erstwhile Soviet and then the Russian sphere of influence," Ashraf, a former adviser to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, pointed out.
But until the return of Trump, the United States exploited its position as the "policeman of the world" to ward off imperial ambitions while pushing its own interests.
Now that Trump appears to view the cost of upholding a rules-based order challenged by its rivals and increasingly criticized in the rest of the world as too expensive, the United States is contributing to the cracks in the facade with Russia and China's help.
And as the international order weakens, the great powers "see opportunities to once again behave in an imperial way", said Mankoff.
Yalta yet again
As at Yalta in 1945, when the United States and the Soviet Union divided the post-World War II world between their respective zones of influence, Washington, Beijing and Moscow could again agree to carve up the globe anew.
"Improved ties between the United States and its great-power rivals, Russia and China, appear to be imminent," Derek Grossman, of the United States' RAND Corporation think tank, said in March.
But the haggling over who gets dominance over what and where would likely come at the expense of other countries.
"Today's major powers are seeking to negotiate a new global order primarily with each other," Monica Toft, professor of international relations at Tufts University in Massachusets wrote in the journal Foreign Affairs.
"In a scenario in which the United States, China, and Russia all agree that they have a vital interest in avoiding a nuclear war, acknowledging each other's spheres of influence can serve as a mechanism to deter escalation," Toft said.
If that were the case, "negotiations to end the war in Ukraine could resemble a new Yalta", she added.
Yet the thought of a Ukraine deemed by Trump to be in Russia's sphere is likely to send shivers down the spines of many in Europe -- not least in Ukraine itself.
"The success or failure of Ukraine to defend its sovereignty is going to have a lot of impact in terms of what the global system ends up looking like a generation from now," Mankoff said.
"So it's important for countries that have the ability and want to uphold an anti-imperial version of international order to assist Ukraine," he added -- pointing the finger at Europe.
"In Trump's world, Europeans need their own sphere of influence," said Rym Momtaz, a researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for Peace.
"For former imperial powers, Europeans seem strangely on the backfoot as nineteenth century spheres of influence come back as the organising principle of global affairs."