'Narrow Path' to Brexit Trade Deal Visible, Next Few Days Critical

French Economy and Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire speaks during a news conference on the country's COVID-19 situation at the French Health Ministry in Paris, France November 12, 2020. Ludovic Marin/File Photo
French Economy and Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire speaks during a news conference on the country's COVID-19 situation at the French Health Ministry in Paris, France November 12, 2020. Ludovic Marin/File Photo
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'Narrow Path' to Brexit Trade Deal Visible, Next Few Days Critical

French Economy and Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire speaks during a news conference on the country's COVID-19 situation at the French Health Ministry in Paris, France November 12, 2020. Ludovic Marin/File Photo
French Economy and Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire speaks during a news conference on the country's COVID-19 situation at the French Health Ministry in Paris, France November 12, 2020. Ludovic Marin/File Photo

European Union Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said on Monday that sealing a trade pact with Britain was still possible before the country's final break with the 27-nation bloc on Dec. 31 but the next few days of negotiations would be critical.

A senior EU diplomat who attended a closed-door briefing by Barnier on the state of play in Brussels said the tortuous trade talks could collapse but for now "the patient is still alive".

"There might now be a narrow path to an agreement visible - if negotiators can clear the remaining hurdles in the next few days," another EU diplomat said, adding that success depends on London accepting "inherent trade-offs" for a fair deal.

Despite missing multiple deadlines, Britain and the EU agreed on Sunday to "go the extra mile" to try to break deadlocks on access to UK fishing waters for EU trawlers and corporate fair play rules in order to avert a turbulent split in trading ties at the end of the month.

"It is our responsibility to give the talks every chance of success," Barnier said in a tweet after his meeting with EU national envoys, adding "the next few days are important" if a trade deal is to be in place for Jan. 1.

Going into the meeting, he told reporters that differences over free and fair competition and access to markets and fishing waters still stood in the way of an agreement.

"And it's on these points that we haven't found the right balance with the British. So we keep working," he said.

The estranged allies are racing to seal a new partnership deal to carry on trading freely and govern ties from energy to transport beyond Dec. 31, when Britain leaves the EU's single market and customs union after Brexit.

Senior EU diplomats, who spoke under condition of anonymity after taking part in Barnier's closed-door briefing, said the negotiator relayed some limited progress on how to settle any future trade disputes but was "guarded" on prospects for a deal.

The sides remained at odds over state aid provisions and have moved further apart again on fisheries, with the EU rejecting UK's proposal for a three-year transition period from 2021 on access to British waters, they said.

"Patient still alive...but keep the undertaker on speed dial," said one diplomat on how the talks were going.

Britons voted to leave the world's largest trading bloc in a national referendum in 2016, and pro-Brexit politicians had claimed on several occasions that reaching a deal would be easy.

While gaps have been narrowing after seven months of talks, it was not clear if Britain and the EU would be able to clinch an agreement with less than three weeks left, or face economic damage from a no-deal from Jan.1.

That would harm an estimated trillion dollars worth of annual trade, send shockwaves through markets, snarl borders and sow chaos in supply chains across Europe just as the continent struggles with economic havoc wrought by the COVID-19 pandemic.

"FOLLY"

French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said on Monday Britain has the most to lose from Brexit.

"The British people will be the biggest losers from Brexit," he said, calling Brexit "a political, economic and historical folly".

In London, British business secretary Alok Sharma said the EU and the United Kingdom were still apart but Prime Minister Boris Johnson did not want to walk away yet.

"People expect us, businesses expect us in the UK to go the extra mile and that's precisely what we're doing," he told Sky.

Sharma also said British shoppers worried about a failure to secure a trade deal should not stockpile food and he was confident food supplies would be maintained.

The British Retail Consortium said retailers were doing everything they could to prepare for all eventualities on Jan. 1 - increasing their stocks of tins, toilet rolls, and other longer-life products so there would be sufficient supply of essential products. It also warned of higher prices without a deal.



UK is 'Broke and Broken,' New Government Says

Rowers train during warm summer weather on the River Thames at Isleworth in London, Britain, July 28, 2024. REUTERS/Toby Melville
Rowers train during warm summer weather on the River Thames at Isleworth in London, Britain, July 28, 2024. REUTERS/Toby Melville
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UK is 'Broke and Broken,' New Government Says

Rowers train during warm summer weather on the River Thames at Isleworth in London, Britain, July 28, 2024. REUTERS/Toby Melville
Rowers train during warm summer weather on the River Thames at Isleworth in London, Britain, July 28, 2024. REUTERS/Toby Melville

Britain’s new left-leaning government said Sunday that the nation is “broke and broken,” blaming the situation on its predecessors ahead of a major speech on the state of the public finances that is widely expected to lay the groundwork for higher taxes.
In a sweeping assessment three weeks after taking power, Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s office professed shock at the situation they inherited after 14 years of Conservative Party rule, while releasing a department-by-department analysis of the perceived failures of the previous government.
The critique comes a day before Treasury chief Rachel Reeves is expected to outline a 20-billion-pound ($26 billion) shortfall in public finances during a speech to the House of Commons.
“We will not shy away from being honest with the public about the reality of what we have inherited,’’ Pat McFadden, a senior member of the new Cabinet, said in a statement. “We are calling time on the false promises that British people have had to put up with and we will do what it takes to fix Britain,” The Associated Press quoted him as saying.
Starmer’s Labour Party won a landslide election victory earlier this month following a campaign in which critics accused both major parties of a “conspiracy of silence” over the scale of the financial challenges facing the next government.
Labour pledged during the campaign that it wouldn’t raise taxes on “working people,” saying its policies would deliver faster economic growth and generate the additional revenue needed by the government. The Conservatives, meanwhile, promised further tax cuts in the autumn if they were returned to office.
As proof that the previous government wasn’t honest about the challenges facing the country, Starmer’s office pointed to recent comments from former Treasury chief Jeremy Hunt confirming that he wouldn’t have been able to cut taxes this year if the Conservatives had been returned to power.
Those comments came in an interview with the BBC in which Hunt also accused Labour of exaggerating the situation to justify raising taxes now that they’ve won the election.
“The reason we’re getting all this spin about this terrible economic inheritance is because Labour wants to raise taxes,” Hunt said on July 21. “If they wanted to raise taxes, all the numbers were crystal clear before the election. ... They should have levelled with the British public.”
The government on Sunday released an overview of the spending assessment Reeves commissioned shortly after taking office. She will deliver the complete report to Parliament on Monday.
Those findings led the new government to accuse the Conservatives of making significant funding commitments for this financial year “without knowing where the money would come from.’’
It argued that the military had been “hollowed out’’ at a time of increasing global threats and the National Health Service was “broken,’’ with some 7.6 million people waiting for care.
And despite billions spent to house migrants and combat the criminal gangs ferrying migrants across the English Channel on dangerous inflatable boats, the number of people making the crossing is still rising, Starmer’s office said. Some 15,832 people have crossed the Channel on small boats already this year, 9% more than during the same period in 2023.
“The assessment will show that Britain is broke and broken — revealing the mess that populist politics has made of the economy and public services,” Downing Street said in a statement.
The quandary the government finds itself in should be no surprise, said Paul Johnson, the director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, an independent think tank focused on Britain’s economic policies.
At the start of the election campaign, the institute said that the UK was in a “parlous fiscal position” and the new government would have to either raise taxes, cut spending or relax the rules on public borrowing.
“For a party to enter office and then declare that things are ‘worse than expected’ would be fundamentally dishonest,” the IFS said on May 25. “The next government does not need to enter office to ‘open the books.’ Those books are transparently published and available for all to inspect.”