Hope and Fear in Sudan Two Years After Protests Erupted

Sudanese protesters from the city of Atbara, the cradle of Sudan's revolution, arrive in the capital Khartoum to celebrate the downfall of dictator Omar al-Bashir in April 2019 | AFP
Sudanese protesters from the city of Atbara, the cradle of Sudan's revolution, arrive in the capital Khartoum to celebrate the downfall of dictator Omar al-Bashir in April 2019 | AFP
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Hope and Fear in Sudan Two Years After Protests Erupted

Sudanese protesters from the city of Atbara, the cradle of Sudan's revolution, arrive in the capital Khartoum to celebrate the downfall of dictator Omar al-Bashir in April 2019 | AFP
Sudanese protesters from the city of Atbara, the cradle of Sudan's revolution, arrive in the capital Khartoum to celebrate the downfall of dictator Omar al-Bashir in April 2019 | AFP

Sudan has experienced a whirlwind of change since its popular revolution kicked off two years ago, bringing an end to the three-decade reign of strongman Omar al-Bashir.

But experts warn the country is now at a critical juncture as tensions have flared between the military and civilian leaders who share power in a fragile transitional government.

"A rupture between civilians and the military is a constant risk," said Rebecca Hamilton, associate professor at American University's Washington College of Law, urging a "surge" of international support for the civilian side.

Former protest activists like 28-year-old Randa Ahmad are watching events with fear, but refuse to give up hope.

"Two years after the start of the revolution we are of course disappointed," she told AFP.

"We took to the streets because we wanted reform of an economy that was strangling us, and for the regime's criminals to face justice. This is still not the case and I'm suffering as a result."

But the pace of change has, in some respects, been dizzying since the youth-led movement started protesting on December 19, 2018 for greater freedoms and an end to Sudan's international isolation.

Bashir was ousted by the army in April 2019, and the new authorities have since put him on trial over the Islamist-backed coup that first brought him to power.

They have cooperated with the International Criminal Court, which wants to try him on charges of genocide, war crimes, and crimes against humanity over the conflict in the western region of Darfur.

The transitional government -- established in August 2019, four months after Bashir was deposed -- has struck peace deals with rebel groups.

It has also, under US pressure, agreed in principle to diplomatically recognize long-time enemy Israel.

And the US on Monday removed Sudan from its list of state sponsors of terrorism, a designation dating from the times when Bashir hosted Osama Bin Laden and other militants.

- 'Lack of trust' -

The delisting should help bring badly-needed foreign aid, debt relief, and investment to one of the world's poorest countries.

But at the same time, an economic crisis with skyrocketing inflation, exacerbated by the global coronavirus pandemic, is bringing yet more pain to the country of over 40 million.

The protests that began two years ago, sparked by high bread prices, were initially centered in the city of Atbara, around 300 kilometers (190 miles) northeast of Khartoum.

Long a hotbed of labor activism, Atbara is where previous revolts started in 1964 and 1985, respectively bringing down dictators Ibrahim Abboud and Jaafar Nimeiri.

Ahmad Khadra, one of the leaders of the Forces for Freedom and Change, the driving force behind the revolution, bemoaned the shortcomings since 2018.

But he is not giving up hope.

"It's true the government structure is not complete ... and the establishment of peace with the guerrilla movements in Darfur, South Kordofan, and Blue Nile is slow," he said.

"But it is moving forward anyway and the economy will improve with the end of the ban" by Washington.

Khadra said his greatest concern was discord between the cabinet led by Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok and the military, headed by army chief General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan.

"There is a lack of real trust which hinders the implementation of the agreement between them," he said.

- 'We will overcome' -

Hamdok this week criticised the security sector's "unacceptable" control over a vast array of companies in gold, rubber, flour, and other key sectors.

Burhan, who also chairs the Sovereign Council, Sudan's highest executive body, earlier accused the transitional institutions of deepening the people's "suffering".

"A year after its creation, I say that the transitional council has failed to respond to the aspirations of the people and of the revolution," the general charged.

The military, he pledged, would "remain the first force in defending the people, protect their achievements and work to protect the glorious revolution".

"Sudan is at a critical juncture," Rosemary DiCarlo, under-secretary-general for political and peace-building affairs, told a recent UN Security Council briefing, urging stepped-up support for the country.

"It can move forward decisively in its transition. But that process can still be derailed by the many challenges it faces."

Eric Reeves, a researcher at the Rift Valley Institute, fears a government rupture or even a coup is "an increasingly likely outcome".

The risk would increase early next year, he said, "as we approach the date on which the civilians on the Sovereign Council take over the chairmanship.

"For the interim, the military will continue to exert or claim more and more executive power."

Randa Ahmad, the activist, said she held on to the hope that change for the better is irreversible.

"Despite everything, I believe in the success of our revolution," she said. "We will overcome all the difficulties and we will have a democratically elected civilian government."



Is Hezbollah Capable of Fighting Israel Again?

A poster of slain Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah in Tehran, Iran. (Reuters)
A poster of slain Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah in Tehran, Iran. (Reuters)
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Is Hezbollah Capable of Fighting Israel Again?

A poster of slain Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah in Tehran, Iran. (Reuters)
A poster of slain Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah in Tehran, Iran. (Reuters)

Hezbollah has once again threatened to take up the fight against Israel amid the conflict between Iran and Israel.

The Lebanese people have been warily observing the conflict between the arch foes, worried that Hezbollah may yet again drag them into another war with Israel, this time to defend its main backer Iran.

Hezbollah had launched a “support war” against Israel and in solidarity with Hamas in wake of the Palestinian movement’s October 7, 2023 attack. Israel subsequently launched an all-out war against Hezbollah in 2024, decimating its weapons arsenal and eliminating its top command.

Since a ceasefire took hold in November, efforts have been underway to disarm Hezbollah.

On Monday, deputy Chairman of Hezbollah's Political Council Mahmoud Qamati declared that the party was “prepared to fight the Israeli enemy should it despair in the Lebanese state’s ability to fulfill its vows and commitments in confronting the aggression.”

Ministerial sources told Asharq Al-Awsat his statement was “a message, but whose direction we don’t know.”

“What matters now is that the party is still committing to the government’s decision to stay out of the conflict. Hezbollah had also declared that it will not launch a new support war,” they noted.

Qamati added: “The resistance (Hezbollah) will not abandon its national duty if the state proves itself incapable or unwilling to deter the ongoing Israeli attacks. Hezbollah still believes the confrontation with Israel to be a national and sovereign issue.”

His statements contradict those made by Hezbollah MP Hassan Fadlallah, as well as sources from the party.

Last week, Fadlallah said: “Iran has proven throughout history that it can defend itself when attacked. It is not asking anyone to defend it. It is waging the fight itself, and it knows how to protect its people and how to wage a confrontation.”

“There are no such things as Iran’s proxies, rather there are resistance movements,” he charged.

Dr. Kassem Kassir, a political analyst close to Hezbollah, said Qamati was talking about Israel’s occupation of Lebanese territories and means to confront it, not supporting Iran.

“His remarks are in preparation for any scenario that may emerge,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Imad Salamey, Associate Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at the Lebanese American University, dismissed Hezbollah’s comments about taking up the fight as “nothing more than a desperate attempt to make itself seem relevant, when in reality it is on the brink of total collapse.”

“Hezbollah has lost the overwhelming majority of its military capabilities: its weapons arsenal has been destroyed by Israeli strikes, its supply routes from Israel are no more and its field commanders have been systematically assassinated,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

“As for Iranian support, in all likelihood its must have dropped dramatically as a result of internal and external pressure on Tehran, including the Israeli attacks, leaving Hezbollah in unprecedented isolation,” he stressed.

“The fact is that Hezbollah can no longer pose a real threat to Israel. With its popular support waning, the party is likely resorting to internal threats, specifically within its Shiite fold, to suppress any attempt at defection or mutiny,” he explained.

“The threats we have been hearing are nothing more than a form of propaganda aimed at hiding Hezbollah’s reality and reshaping its image that cannot be backed up with any tangible support,” Salamey said.

Head of Lebanese Forces Media and Communications Department Charles Jabbour echoed these comments, saying Qamati’s remarks are nothing more than “words aimed at compensating for Hezbollah’s inability to wage a support war for Iran.”

“Those who supported Hamas were better off supporting the side that established it and supplied it with funds and weapons,” he said, referring to Hezbollah’s main backer Iran.

“All of these threats are aimed at Hezbollah’s supporters to give them the impression that they are still capable of fighting. The reality is that they can no longer do anything but hand over their weapons,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Meanwhile, the Kataeb party praised the Lebanese state’s firm stance in keeping Lebanon neutral from the regional conflict.

The developments demand that Hezbollah take a “clear and immediate decision to meet calls to lay down its weapons and hand them over to the army and disengage itself completely from any foreign powers,” it said.

“It must return to the fold of the state that remains the only protector of all Lebanese people,” it added.