Egypt and the 'Arab Spring' … A Decade of Social, Political Change

Tens of thousands of Egyptians demonstrate in Cairo’s Tahrir Square in January 2011. (Getty Images)
Tens of thousands of Egyptians demonstrate in Cairo’s Tahrir Square in January 2011. (Getty Images)
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Egypt and the 'Arab Spring' … A Decade of Social, Political Change

Tens of thousands of Egyptians demonstrate in Cairo’s Tahrir Square in January 2011. (Getty Images)
Tens of thousands of Egyptians demonstrate in Cairo’s Tahrir Square in January 2011. (Getty Images)

Two ousted presidents, thousands of civilian and military victims and wounded, three presidential and parliamentary elections, constitutional declarations without a vote, deep constitutional reform after a referendum, security calm after unrest and a neighbor that cannot find peace.

This is how the social and political scene took shape in Egypt in ten sometimes dramatic years of tumult as part of the so-called Arab Spring.

The developments began on January 25, 2011 with protest calls for better living conditions, freedom and social justice. They demanded the resignation of longtime President Hosni Mubarak, who had ruled for 30 years, and had taken inspiration from the revolt in Tunisia where the people successfully ousted Zine El Abidine Ben Ali just days earlier.

Egyptians held daily protests with the Tahrir Square in the capital, Cairo, becoming an icon of their movement. Mubarak resigned in February 2011 and the Supreme Council of Egyptian Armed Forces was entrusted with leading the country. A constitutional referendum was successfully held on March 19 and presidential elections were set for 2012.

Amid the vacuum, the country’s most organized group came to the fore – the Muslim Brotherhood. The Islamist organization submitted a candidate for the elections and Mohamed Morsi was declared president on June 24, 2012. Instead of a “spring”, the election brought an “Islamist winter” as the Muslim Brotherhood put a halt to the natural course of political events and instead sought to cement its power over various state institutions.

Morsi soon issued a declaration immunizing his decrees from challenge and attempting to protect the work of the constituent assembly drafting the new constitution. Alarmed by the move, national and religious powers withdrew from the committee that was drafting the institution. Despite protests against Morsi, the constitutional referendum went ahead in December 2012, but garnered the support of only 63.8 percent of voters.

The tensions did not end there. The Muslim Brotherhood’s time in power fueled divisions and tensions as the organization continued to make missteps. Popular opposition against the group and Morsi continued to mount and peaked on June 30, 2013 when the army swept in an removed the president from power.

The ouster of the president and the Muslim Brotherhood sparked a wave of violence in the country, including a spate of bombings that targeted important security locations in Cairo and other parts of the country. Other attacks left dozens of soldiers, officers and civilians dead. Muslim Brotherhood supporters also staged protests in the Rabaa al-Adawiya and al-Nahda Squares despite Morsi’s ouster. In August 2013, the security forces were forced to intervene to disperse the protests. Several demonstrators and members of the security were killed in ensuing violence.

In the aftermath of Morsi’s ouster, Egypt needed a new constitution that would take into account the new reality in the country. The constitution declared by the Muslim Brotherhood had been suspended and a constitutional declaration, announced by then Defense Minister Abdul Fattah al-Sisi, was in place.

By January 2014, Egyptians approved their new constitution with an overwhelming 98.1 percent during a referendum. Due to his role in toppling the Muslim Brotherhood and meeting the demands of the people, Sisi submitted his candidacy for the presidential elections in March 2014 and would go on to achieve a resounding victory in June.

However, even with the election of a new president, terrorist attacks continued to persist in Egypt. The security instability on the inside were also challenged by unrest in neighboring Libya, which had become a platform for the arrival of gunmen and smuggling of weapons into Egypt. New challenges have also emerged in recent years, with tensions between Cairo and Addis Ababa over the construction of the contentious Nile dam and Turkey’s expansionist agenda in the eastern Mediterranean.

Sisi met the challenges with his resolve to “cement the stability of the state”. He has largely been successful, with terrorist attacks on the decline. As for deep institutional change, the armed forces have been tasked with protecting the constitution and democracy, an added role to their existing duties of protecting the country.



Iran-Israel War: A Lifeline for Netanyahu?

FILE - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends a ceremony on the eve of Israel's Remembrance Day for fallen soldiers at the Yad LaBanim Memorial in Jerusalem, on April 29, 2025. (Abir Sultan/Pool Photo via AP, File)
FILE - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends a ceremony on the eve of Israel's Remembrance Day for fallen soldiers at the Yad LaBanim Memorial in Jerusalem, on April 29, 2025. (Abir Sultan/Pool Photo via AP, File)
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Iran-Israel War: A Lifeline for Netanyahu?

FILE - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends a ceremony on the eve of Israel's Remembrance Day for fallen soldiers at the Yad LaBanim Memorial in Jerusalem, on April 29, 2025. (Abir Sultan/Pool Photo via AP, File)
FILE - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends a ceremony on the eve of Israel's Remembrance Day for fallen soldiers at the Yad LaBanim Memorial in Jerusalem, on April 29, 2025. (Abir Sultan/Pool Photo via AP, File)

The Iran-Israel war has helped strengthen Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu domestically and overseas, just as his grip on power looked vulnerable.

On the eve of launching strikes on Iran, his government looked to be on the verge of collapse, with a drive to conscript ultra-Orthodox Jews threatening to scupper his fragile coalition.

Nearly two years on from Hamas's unprecedented attack in 2023, Netanyahu was under growing domestic criticism for his handling of the war in Gaza, where dozens of hostages remain unaccounted for, said AFP.

Internationally too, he was coming under pressure including from longstanding allies, who since the war with Iran began have gone back to expressing support.

Just days ago, polls were predicting Netanyahu would lose his majority if new elections were held, but now, his fortunes appear to have reversed, and Israelis are seeing in "Bibi" the man of the moment.

– 'Reshape the Middle East' –

For decades, Netanyahu has warned of the risk of a nuclear attack on Israel by Iran -- a fear shared by most Israelis.

Yonatan Freeman, a geopolitics expert at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, said Netanyahu's argument that the pre-emptive strike on Iran was necessary draws "a lot of public support" and that the prime minister has been "greatly strengthened".

Even the opposition has rallied behind him.

"Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is my political rival, but his decision to strike Iran at this moment in time is the right one," opposition leader Yair Lapid wrote in a Jerusalem Post op-ed.

A poll published Saturday by a conservative Israeli channel showed that 54 percent of respondents expressed confidence in the prime minister.

The public had had time to prepare for the possibility of an offensive against Iran, with Netanyahu repeatedly warning that Israel was fighting for its survival and had an opportunity to "reshape the Middle East."

During tit-for-tat military exchanges last year, Israel launched air raids on targets in Iran in October that are thought to have severely damaged Iranian air defenses.

Israel's then-defense minister Yoav Gallant said the strikes had shifted "the balance of power" and had "weakened" Iran.

"In fact, for the past 20 months, Israelis have been thinking about this (a war with Iran)," said Denis Charbit, a political scientist at Israel's Open University.

Since Hamas's October 7, 2023 attack on Israel, Netanyahu has ordered military action in Gaza, against the Iran-backed Hezbollah group in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, as well as targets in Syria where long-time leader Bashar al-Assad fell in December last year.

"Netanyahu always wants to dominate the agenda, to be the one who reshuffles the deck himself -- not the one who reacts -- and here he is clearly asserting his Churchillian side, which is, incidentally, his model," Charbit said.

"But depending on the outcome and the duration (of the war), everything could change, and Israelis might turn against Bibi and demand answers."

– Silencing critics –

For now, however, people in Israel see the conflict with Iran as a "necessary war," according to Nitzan Perelman, a researcher specialized in Israel at the National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS) in France.

"Public opinion supports this war, just as it has supported previous ones," she added.

"It's very useful for Netanyahu because it silences criticism, both inside the country and abroad."

In the weeks ahead of the Iran strikes, international criticism of Netanyahu and Israel's military had reached unprecedented levels.

After more than 55,000 deaths in Gaza, according to the health ministry in the Hamas-run territory, and a blockade that has produced famine-like conditions there, Israel has faced growing isolation and the risk of sanctions, while Netanyahu himself is the subject of an international arrest warrant for alleged war crimes.

But on Sunday, two days into the war with Iran, the Israeli leader received a phone call from European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, while Foreign Minister Gideon Saar has held talks with numerous counterparts.

"There's more consensus in Europe in how they see Iran, which is more equal to how Israel sees Iran," explained Freeman from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Tuesday that Israel was doing "the dirty work... for all of us."

The idea that a weakened Iran could lead to regional peace and the emergence of a new Middle East is appealing to the United States and some European countries, according to Freeman.

But for Perelman, "Netanyahu is exploiting the Iranian threat, as he always has."