Egypt and the 'Arab Spring' … A Decade of Social, Political Change

Tens of thousands of Egyptians demonstrate in Cairo’s Tahrir Square in January 2011. (Getty Images)
Tens of thousands of Egyptians demonstrate in Cairo’s Tahrir Square in January 2011. (Getty Images)
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Egypt and the 'Arab Spring' … A Decade of Social, Political Change

Tens of thousands of Egyptians demonstrate in Cairo’s Tahrir Square in January 2011. (Getty Images)
Tens of thousands of Egyptians demonstrate in Cairo’s Tahrir Square in January 2011. (Getty Images)

Two ousted presidents, thousands of civilian and military victims and wounded, three presidential and parliamentary elections, constitutional declarations without a vote, deep constitutional reform after a referendum, security calm after unrest and a neighbor that cannot find peace.

This is how the social and political scene took shape in Egypt in ten sometimes dramatic years of tumult as part of the so-called Arab Spring.

The developments began on January 25, 2011 with protest calls for better living conditions, freedom and social justice. They demanded the resignation of longtime President Hosni Mubarak, who had ruled for 30 years, and had taken inspiration from the revolt in Tunisia where the people successfully ousted Zine El Abidine Ben Ali just days earlier.

Egyptians held daily protests with the Tahrir Square in the capital, Cairo, becoming an icon of their movement. Mubarak resigned in February 2011 and the Supreme Council of Egyptian Armed Forces was entrusted with leading the country. A constitutional referendum was successfully held on March 19 and presidential elections were set for 2012.

Amid the vacuum, the country’s most organized group came to the fore – the Muslim Brotherhood. The Islamist organization submitted a candidate for the elections and Mohamed Morsi was declared president on June 24, 2012. Instead of a “spring”, the election brought an “Islamist winter” as the Muslim Brotherhood put a halt to the natural course of political events and instead sought to cement its power over various state institutions.

Morsi soon issued a declaration immunizing his decrees from challenge and attempting to protect the work of the constituent assembly drafting the new constitution. Alarmed by the move, national and religious powers withdrew from the committee that was drafting the institution. Despite protests against Morsi, the constitutional referendum went ahead in December 2012, but garnered the support of only 63.8 percent of voters.

The tensions did not end there. The Muslim Brotherhood’s time in power fueled divisions and tensions as the organization continued to make missteps. Popular opposition against the group and Morsi continued to mount and peaked on June 30, 2013 when the army swept in an removed the president from power.

The ouster of the president and the Muslim Brotherhood sparked a wave of violence in the country, including a spate of bombings that targeted important security locations in Cairo and other parts of the country. Other attacks left dozens of soldiers, officers and civilians dead. Muslim Brotherhood supporters also staged protests in the Rabaa al-Adawiya and al-Nahda Squares despite Morsi’s ouster. In August 2013, the security forces were forced to intervene to disperse the protests. Several demonstrators and members of the security were killed in ensuing violence.

In the aftermath of Morsi’s ouster, Egypt needed a new constitution that would take into account the new reality in the country. The constitution declared by the Muslim Brotherhood had been suspended and a constitutional declaration, announced by then Defense Minister Abdul Fattah al-Sisi, was in place.

By January 2014, Egyptians approved their new constitution with an overwhelming 98.1 percent during a referendum. Due to his role in toppling the Muslim Brotherhood and meeting the demands of the people, Sisi submitted his candidacy for the presidential elections in March 2014 and would go on to achieve a resounding victory in June.

However, even with the election of a new president, terrorist attacks continued to persist in Egypt. The security instability on the inside were also challenged by unrest in neighboring Libya, which had become a platform for the arrival of gunmen and smuggling of weapons into Egypt. New challenges have also emerged in recent years, with tensions between Cairo and Addis Ababa over the construction of the contentious Nile dam and Turkey’s expansionist agenda in the eastern Mediterranean.

Sisi met the challenges with his resolve to “cement the stability of the state”. He has largely been successful, with terrorist attacks on the decline. As for deep institutional change, the armed forces have been tasked with protecting the constitution and democracy, an added role to their existing duties of protecting the country.



A Week Into the Fragile Israel-Iran Peace Agreement, Here's What We Still Don't Know

People attend the funeral procession of Iranian military commanders, nuclear scientists and others killed in Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 28, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS
People attend the funeral procession of Iranian military commanders, nuclear scientists and others killed in Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 28, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS
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A Week Into the Fragile Israel-Iran Peace Agreement, Here's What We Still Don't Know

People attend the funeral procession of Iranian military commanders, nuclear scientists and others killed in Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 28, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS
People attend the funeral procession of Iranian military commanders, nuclear scientists and others killed in Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 28, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS

It's been a week since the United States pressed Israel and Iran into a truce, ending a bloody, 12-day conflict that had set the Middle East and globe on edge.

The fragile peace, brokered by the US the day after it dropped 30,000-pound "bunker-busting" bombs on three of Iran's key nuclear sites, is holding. But much remains unsettled, The Associated Press reported.

How badly Iran’s nuclear program was set back remains murky. The prospects of renewed US-Iran peace talks are up in the air. And whether US President Donald Trump can leverage the moment to get Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu 's government and Hamas focused on a ceasefire and hostage deal that brings about an end to the 20-month war in Gaza remains an open question.

Here is a look at what we still don't know:

How far Iran's nuclear program has been set back Trump says three targets hit by American strikes were “obliterated.” His defense secretary said they were “destroyed.”

A preliminary report issued by the US Defense Intelligence Agency, meanwhile, said the strikes did significant damage to the Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan sites, but did not totally destroy the facilities.

Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said on CBS’ “Face the Nation” on Sunday that the three Iranian sites with “capabilities in terms of treatment, conversion and enrichment of uranium have been destroyed to an important degree.” But, he added, “some is still standing” and that because capabilities remain, “if they so wish, they will be able to start doing this again.” He said assessing the full damage comes down to Iran allowing inspectors access.

What future US-Iran relations might look like

After the ceasefire deal came together, Trump spoke of potentially easing decades of biting sanctions on Tehran and predicted that Iran could become a “great trading nation” if it pulled back once-and-for-all from its nuclear program.

The talk of harmony didn't last long.

Ali Khamenei, in his first public appearance after the ceasefire was announced, claimed Tehran had delivered a “slap to America’s face." Trump responded by suggesting the supreme leader own up to the fact Iran “got beat to hell. The president also said he was backing off reviewing any immediate sanction relief, because of Khamenei's heated comments.

White House officials say the US and Iran are already in early discussions about resuming negotiations that had ended after Israel began launching strikes. But Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says there's no agreement in place to restart talks.

It's unclear if Iran's leadership is ready to come to the table so soon after the fighting has ended — especially if Trump holds to the position that Iran must give up nuclear enrichment for even civilian use. And Trump has offered conflicting statements about his commitment to talks. “We may sign an agreement,” he said Wednesday at a NATO summit press conference. He added, “I don’t think it’s that necessary.”

What role Iran's supreme leader will play

Khamenei's age and recent diminished appearance have raised questions about the scope of his involvement in US-Iran relations and Iran's response to both American and Israeli strikes. But despite having spent the last few weeks in a bunker as threats to his life escalated, there is little indication that Khamenei does not still reign supreme over the country's massive military and governmental operations.

Khamenei has ruled three times longer than his predecessor, the late Ruhollah Khomeini, and has shaped life for the country's more than 90 million people perhaps even more dramatically.

He entrenched the system of rule by the “mullahs,” or Shiite Muslim clerics. That secured his place in the eyes of hard-liners as the unquestionable authority, below only that of God. At the same time, Khamenei built the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard into the dominant force in Iran’s military and internal politics.

How Iran might strike back Iran's retaliatory missile attacks on a US base in Qatar following the American bombardment were sloughed off by the White House as a half-hearted, face-saving measure. The US was forewarned and the salvos were easily fended off.

Yet Iran remains a persistent threat, particularly via cyberwarfare. Hackers backing Tehran have already targeted US banks, defense contractors and oil industry companies — but so far have not caused widespread disruptions to critical infrastructure or the economy.

The US Department of Homeland Security last week issued a public bulletin warning of increased Iranian cyber threats. And the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, is urging organizations that operate critical infrastructure like water systems, pipelines or power plants to stay vigilant.

Whether the Israel-Iran ceasefire will hold It remains a fragile peace.

Immediately following the US strikes, Trump got on the phone with Netanyahu and told the Israeli leader not to expect further US offensive military action, according to a senior White House official who was not authorized to comment publicly about the sensitive diplomatic talks.

But even as he agreed to deal, Netanyahu made clear that Israel will strike again “if anyone in Iran tries to revive this project.”

The ceasefire deal came without any agreement from Tehran on dismantling its nuclear program. Khamenei claims the attacks “did nothing significant” to Iran's nuclear facilities.

Trump expressed confidence that Iran, at the moment, has no interest in getting its nuclear program back up. “The last thing they’re thinking about right now is enriched uranium,” Trump said.

Still, Trump says he expects Iran to open itself to international inspection to verify that it doesn’t restart its nuclear program by the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN nuclear watchdog, or some other organization "that we respect, including ourselves.”

Whether Trump can now press Netanyahu on Gaza

The president took a big gamble with his decision to order strikes on Iran's nuclear fortress.

As a candidate, he promised to quickly end Russia's brutal war in Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza, but has failed to find a resolution to either. He also vowed to keep the US military out of foreign conflicts.

But after helping Israel with US strikes on Iran, Trump — in conversations with Netanyahu and other world leaders in recent days — has made clear he wants a deal completed soon, according to two people familiar with the private discussions and were not authorized to comment publicly.

On Friday, Trump told reporters, “We think within the next week we’re going to get a ceasefire.”

Trump didn't offer any further explanation for his optimism. But Israeli Minister for Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer is expected to be in Washington this week for talks on a Gaza ceasefire, Iran and other matters, according to an official familiar with the matter. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media.