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Warning Message from US to Region: Do Not Weaken Our Ability to Pressure Damascus

US forces patrol oil fields in Syria, Oct. 28, 2019. (AP)
US forces patrol oil fields in Syria, Oct. 28, 2019. (AP)
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Warning Message from US to Region: Do Not Weaken Our Ability to Pressure Damascus

US forces patrol oil fields in Syria, Oct. 28, 2019. (AP)
US forces patrol oil fields in Syria, Oct. 28, 2019. (AP)

The latest American sanctions against Damascus and the Middle East tour carried out by Joel Rayburn, US Special Envoy for Syria in the US State Department, delivered a strong message that a change in administration in Washington does not mean a change in policy or an end to the regime’s isolation.

Even if tactical changes were to be introduced, strategic changes on Syria will not happen, he said.

The sanctions came with an added “warning” against taking steps that could weaken Washington’s ability to continue its pressure campaign on Damascus.

The recent sanctions “shut the door for the possibility of holding negotiations between the US and Syria” and obstruct the possibility of opening “channels of dialogue.” Rather, they only increase the economic pressure on Damascus with the central bank being among the latest targets. The impact was immediate, with foreign banks declaring that they were halting operations in Damascus.

Coordination with London
Washington blacklisted Asma al-Assad, president Bashar’s wife, her father and two brothers, as well as businesses they own. In addition, it targeted security, economic and executive Syrian officials, including Lina Mohammed Nazir al-Kinayeh, whom the Treasury identified as an official in Assad’s presidential office, her husband, MP Mohammed Hammam Masouti, and their businesses, and others.

The latest sanctions take to 114 the number of individuals and entities that have been targeted since the Caesar Act came into effect in mid-June. Reports have said new sanctions will be announced before US President Donald Trump leaves the White House on January 20.

Rayburn said the latest sanctions were announced a year after Trump signed the Caesar Act.

“The United States remains committed to carrying out a sustained campaign of economic and political pressure to prevent the Assad regime and its staunchest supporters from amassing resources to fuel their war against the Syrian people,” he stressed on Tuesday.

“To that end, the United States is imposing sanctions on 18 more individuals and entities, including the Central Bank of Syria. These individuals and corrupt businesses are impeding efforts to reach a political and peaceful resolution to the Syrian conflict, as called for by UN Security Council Resolution 2254,” he added.

“Among those individuals sanctioned today are Asma al-Assad and some of her immediate relatives, all of whom are based in the United Kingdom. Asma al-Assad has spearheaded efforts on behalf of the regime to consolidate economic and political power, including by using her so-called charities and civil society organizations. Her and her family’s corruption is one of the many reasons that this conflict lingers on,” he remarked.

Rayburn said it was “significant” that Asma and her immediate relatives – her father, Fawaz Akhras; Asma al-Assad’s mother, Sahar Otri Akhras; Asma al-Assad’s brothers, Firas Akhras and Eyad Akhras – were being targeted.

He noted that all of these figures are dual Syrian and UK citizens and are all based in the UK.

“We coordinated this action with our UK counterparts,” he revealed. “Our UK counterparts are very, very close partners of ours on the Syria file. And so we did everything in conjunction with them. We would never surprise them on this because we’re in a very close strategic partnership with the UK on Syria.”

It remains to be seen whether the British government or European Union will also sanction the same individuals.

Tuesday’s sanctions reveal that Washington will continue to exert pressure on the Akhras family, Asma and her entourage. They also send a strong message that Syrians and non-Syrians who cooperate with the regime may be sanctioned. The third message is that anyone anywhere cooperating with the regime may be targeted.

Closing the door
Politically, some of the latest blacklisted figures used to play a role in the “second path” or “second door” of negotiations with American parties. They had held secret meetings in London to tackle western sanctions on Damascus, among other issues.

Their designation makes such talks “legally impossible” in the future. The message of the “Syrian file team” in Washington is that “you cannot be a mediator in London or any other European capital and also a partner to Damascus.”

The Caesar Act bars any dealings with the regime.

Significantly, some of the American officials who were part of this negotiations path will possibly play a role in managing the Syrian file in Joe Biden’s administration. The sanctions, effectively, put an end to this option.

Rayburn had recently concluded a tour of the region that included Turkey, Egypt, Israel, Iraq, northeastern Syria and other countries.

The tour served as a “reminder” and a “warning” to concerned countries of the American goals in Syria: ensuring the defeat of ISIS, pressuring Iran to pull out from the country and pressuring the regime to implement resolution 2254.

These are not the goals of US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo or Raybun, but of America. The change in officials, will not change the goals. A change in administration, does not mean a change in policy.

“I think that those goals already have a consensus behind them in Washington, and I really don’t think you’re going to see a significant change away from those goals. You can – there are different people who will come into different positions; they can have good ideas about how to implement those goals better. But I don’t think you’re going to see a discarding of those goals,” stressed Rayburn.

“I think you can count on the United States as well as the other like-minded countries to continue seeking those goals regardless of who is in the White House,” he added.

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The Fragile Israel-Hezbollah Truce is Holding so Far, Despite Violations

Mariam Kourani removes a toy car from the rubble of her destroyed house after returning with her family to the Hanouiyeh village in southern Lebanon, on Nov. 28, 2024, following a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla, File)
Mariam Kourani removes a toy car from the rubble of her destroyed house after returning with her family to the Hanouiyeh village in southern Lebanon, on Nov. 28, 2024, following a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla, File)
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The Fragile Israel-Hezbollah Truce is Holding so Far, Despite Violations

Mariam Kourani removes a toy car from the rubble of her destroyed house after returning with her family to the Hanouiyeh village in southern Lebanon, on Nov. 28, 2024, following a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla, File)
Mariam Kourani removes a toy car from the rubble of her destroyed house after returning with her family to the Hanouiyeh village in southern Lebanon, on Nov. 28, 2024, following a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla, File)

A fragile ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanon's Hezbollah has held up for over a month, even as its terms seem unlikely to be met by the agreed-upon deadline.

The deal struck on Nov. 27 to halt the war required Hezbollah to immediately lay down its arms in southern Lebanon and gave Israel 60 days to withdraw its forces there and hand over control to the Lebanese army and UN peacekeepers.

So far, Israel has withdrawn from just two of the dozens of towns it holds in southern Lebanon. And it has continued striking what it says are bases belonging to Hezbollah, which it accuses of attempting to launch rockets and move weapons before they can be confiscated and destroyed, The AP reported.

Hezbollah, which was severely diminished during nearly 14 months of war, has threatened to resume fighting if Israel does not fully withdraw its forces by the 60-day deadline.

Yet despite accusations from both sides about hundreds of ceasefire violations, the truce is likely to hold, analysts say. That is good news for thousands of Israeli and Lebanese families displaced by the war still waiting to return home.

“The ceasefire agreement is rather opaque and open to interpretation,” said Firas Maksad, a senior fellow with the Middle East Institute in Washington. That flexibility, he said, may give it a better chance of holding in the face of changing circumstances, including the ouster of Syria's longtime leader, Bashar Assad, just days after the ceasefire took effect.

With Assad gone, Hezbollah lost a vital route for smuggling weapons from Iran. While that further weakened Hezbollah’s hand, Israel had already agreed to the US-brokered ceasefire.

Hezbollah began firing rockets into Israel on Oct. 8, 2023 — the day after Hamas launched a deadly attack into Israel that ignited the ongoing war in Gaza. Since then, Israeli air and ground assaults have killed more than 4,000 people in Lebanon, including hundreds of civilians. At the height of the war, more than 1 million Lebanese people were displaced.

Hezbollah rockets forced some 60,000 from their homes in northern Israel, and killed 76 people in Israel, including 31 soldiers. Almost 50 Israeli soldiers were killed during operations inside Lebanon.

Here’s a look at the terms of the ceasefire and its prospects for ending hostilities over the long-term.

What does the ceasefire agreement say? The agreement says that both Hezbollah and Israel will halt “offensive” military actions, but that they can act in self-defense, although it is not entirely clear how that term may be interpreted.

The Lebanese army is tasked with preventing Hezbollah and other militant groups from launching attacks into Israel. It is also required to dismantle Hezbollah facilities and weapons in southern Lebanon — activities that might eventually be expanded to the rest of Lebanon, although it is not explicit in the ceasefire agreement.

The United States, France, Israel, Lebanon and the UN peacekeeping force in Lebanon, known as UNIFIL, are responsible for overseeing implementation of the agreement.

“The key question is not whether the deal will hold, but what version of it will be implemented,” Maksad, the analyst, said.

Is the ceasefire being implemented? Hezbollah has for the most part halted its rocket and drone fire into Israel, and Israel has stopped attacking Hezbollah in most areas of Lebanon. But Israel has launched regular airstrikes on what it says are militant sites in southern Lebanon and in the Bekaa Valley.

Israeli forces have so far withdrawn from two towns in southern Lebanon - Khiam and Shamaa. They remain in some 60 others, according to the International Organization for Migration, and around 160,000 Lebanese remain displaced.

Lebanon has accused Israel of repeatedly violating the ceasefire agreement and last week submitted a complaint to the UN Security Council that says Israel launched some 816 “ground and air attacks” between the start of the ceasefire and Dec. 22, 2024.

The complaint said the attacks have hindered the Lebanese army's efforts to deploy in the south and uphold its end of the ceasefire agreement.

Until Israel hands over control of more towns to the Lebanese army, Israeli troops have been destroying Hezbollah infrastructure, including weapons warehouses and underground tunnels. Lebanese authorities say Israel has also destroyed civilian houses and infrastructure.

What happens after the ceasefire has been in place for 60 days? Israel's withdrawal from Lebanese towns has been slower than anticipated because of a lack of Lebanese army troops ready to take over, according to Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani, a military spokesman. Lebanon disputes this, and says it is waiting for Israel to withdraw before entering the towns.

Shoshani said Israel is satisfied with the Lebanese army's control of the areas it has already withdrawn from, and that while it would prefer a faster transfer of power, security is its most important objective.

Israel does not consider the 60-day timetable for withdrawal to be “sacred,” said Harel Chorev, an expert on Israel-Lebanon relations at Tel Aviv University who estimates that Lebanon will need to recruit and deploy thousands more troops before Israel will be ready to hand over control.

Hezbollah officials have said that if Israeli forces remain in Lebanon 60 days past the start of the ceasefire, the militant group might return to attacking them. But Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Kassem said Wednesday that, for now, the group is holding off to give the Lebanese state a chance to "take responsibility” for enforcing the agreement.

Over the final two months of the war, Hezbollah suffered major blows to its leadership, weapons and forces from a barrage of Israeli airstrikes, and a ground invasion that led to fierce battles in southern Lebanon. The fall of Assad was another big setback.

“The power imbalance suggests Israel may want to ensure greater freedom of action after the 60-day period,” Maksad, the analyst, said. And Hezbollah, in its weakened position, now has a “strong interest” in making sure the deal doesn't fall apart altogether “despite Israeli violations,” he said.

While Hezbollah may not be in a position to return to open war with Israel, it or other groups could mount guerilla attacks using light weaponry if Israeli troops remain in southern Lebanon, said former Lebanese army Gen. Hassan Jouni. And even if Israel does withdraw all of its ground forces, Jouni said, the Israeli military could could continue to carry out sporadic airstrikes in Lebanon, much as it has done in Syria for years.