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Cairo Seeking Binding Legal Agreement to Avoid Negative Impact of GERD

Construction work in the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (Reuters)
Construction work in the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (Reuters)
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Cairo Seeking Binding Legal Agreement to Avoid Negative Impact of GERD

Construction work in the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (Reuters)
Construction work in the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (Reuters)

Egypt has been seeking to push Ethiopia to conclude a binding legal agreement that spares it the potential negative impact of the mega dam, which Addis Ababa is constructing on the Nile River.

Cairo fears the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) would affect the flow of its annual share of the Nile’s 55.5 billion cubic meters of water especially that it relies on it for more than 90 percent of its water supplies.

In a phone conversation with his South African counterpart Cyril Ramaphosa on Saturday, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi stressed his country’s firm position on formulating a binding legal agreement that preserves Egyptian water rights and includes Sudan, Ethiopia, and Egypt.

The agreement shall define the rules for filling and operating the dam while preserving Cairo’s water rights, he noted.

The African Union has been sponsoring talks among Cairo, Addis Ababa, and Khartoum since July and attended by observers from the United States and the European Union.

For nearly a decade, talks over the operation and filling of the mega-dam have faltered.

The latest GERD meeting was held on Nov. 21 between Egypt and Ethiopia’s irrigation ministers. Sudan boycotted the talks, calling on the AU to change the negotiation’s approach and expand the role of experts.

The ministers agreed to prepare separate reports, including their countries’ visions to advance the negotiations, and send them to South Africa’s Minister of International Relations and Cooperation Dr. Naledi Pandor.

According to Presidential spokesman Bassam Rady, Sisi received a phone call from Ramaphosa during which both sides discussed and exchanged views on the issue.

Ramaphosa praised Egypt’s efforts to reach a solution on this vital issue and called for coordination during the coming period to work on reaching a fair and balanced agreement.

South Africa’s term ends at the end of 2020 and the Democratic Republic of the Congo will take over the AU presidency in 2021.

On Saturday, Sisi also held a phone conversation with his Congolese counterpart Felix Tshisekedi during which they discussed regional and continental issues of mutual interest.

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Iraq Braces for Economic Fallout from Heavy Reliance on Iran amid Escalating Conflict

An Iraqi man bakes traditional bread at a bakery in Baghdad (EPA). 
An Iraqi man bakes traditional bread at a bakery in Baghdad (EPA). 
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Iraq Braces for Economic Fallout from Heavy Reliance on Iran amid Escalating Conflict

An Iraqi man bakes traditional bread at a bakery in Baghdad (EPA). 
An Iraqi man bakes traditional bread at a bakery in Baghdad (EPA). 

As tensions escalate between Iran and Israel, Iraq is nervously eyeing the potential fallout from a conflict that could have deep and lasting consequences for the country.

While Iraqi authorities and political parties maintain a publicly cautious and reserved stance, behind closed doors, concerns are mounting over what many see as Iraq’s overreliance on Iran in critical sectors such as energy and trade.

A political source speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat revealed that, although officials are holding back from public commentary, there is a growing consensus among political actors that Iraq could face significant disruption regardless of how the conflict unfolds. “There’s an unspoken recognition that many things will change after this war,” the source said.

Already, early signs of strain are surfacing. Iraq’s Ministry of Trade unveiled a new contingency plan this week to safeguard food security amid fears of disrupted supply chains.

Spokesperson Mohammed Hanoun stated the plan aims to “ensure continuity of essential supplies without significant price hikes,” through the buildup of strategic reserves and strengthened market oversight to prevent hoarding or price manipulation.

Security services, meanwhile, reported the arrest of 660 individuals accused of exploiting regional instability. More visibly, daily life is beginning to feel the pressure: consumer activity is slowing, prices of some goods are creeping up, and travel logistics have grown more complex.

With Baghdad International Airport temporarily closed, Basra has become the only functional air entry point. According to sources, the cost of returning to Iraq by land via Jordan has soared from $70 to $250 per passenger.

Experts warn that Iraq’s economic fragility and its deep entanglement with Iran leave it acutely vulnerable. Dr. Siham Youssef, a professor of international economics, explained that Iraq’s heavy dependence on oil exports - comprising over 90% of state revenue - offers little cushion in times of geopolitical upheaval.

While global oil prices have risen by 8% to 12%, Youssef cautioned that any benefit could be wiped out by rising transportation costs, insurance premiums, or damage to infrastructure.

Compounding the issue is Iraq’s reliance on Iranian gas for electricity production. If the conflict interrupts Iranian gas flows, Iraq may face severe power shortages, rising costs, and mounting pressure on an already stretched budget.

Shipping risks are also increasing, with Iraq’s ports located dangerously close to potential conflict zones. Youssef noted that international shipping and insurance firms may soon classify Iraqi ports as “high-risk,” leading to surging logistics costs. Additionally, the closure of Iraqi airspace threatens not only civil aviation but also the loss of overflight revenues.