IMF Chief Warns of 'Lost Generation' if Low-Income Countries Don't Get More Help

International Monetary Fund managing director Kristalina Georgieva told reporters that 50 per cent of developing countries were at risk of falling further behind, which raised concerns about stability and social unrest. PHOTO: AFP
International Monetary Fund managing director Kristalina Georgieva told reporters that 50 per cent of developing countries were at risk of falling further behind, which raised concerns about stability and social unrest. PHOTO: AFP
TT

IMF Chief Warns of 'Lost Generation' if Low-Income Countries Don't Get More Help

International Monetary Fund managing director Kristalina Georgieva told reporters that 50 per cent of developing countries were at risk of falling further behind, which raised concerns about stability and social unrest. PHOTO: AFP
International Monetary Fund managing director Kristalina Georgieva told reporters that 50 per cent of developing countries were at risk of falling further behind, which raised concerns about stability and social unrest. PHOTO: AFP

The head of the IMF on Friday urged advanced economies to provide more resources to low-income countries, warning of an emerging "Great Divergence" in global growth that could risk stability and trigger social unrest for years to come.

International Monetary Fund managing director Kristalina Georgieva told reporters that 50 per cent of developing countries were at risk of falling further behind, which raised concerns about stability and social unrest.

To avert bigger problems, she said rich countries and international institutions should chip in more. She also urged heavily indebted countries to seek debt restructuring sooner rather than later, and to boost conditions for growth, Reuters reported.

"Last year the main focus was on the 'Great Lockdown'. This year we face the risk of 'Great Divergence'," Georgieva told reporters during a videoconference.

"We estimate that developing countries that have been for decades converging in income levels will be in a very tough place this time around."

Setbacks for living standards in developing countries would make it much more difficult to achieve stability and security for the rest of the world, she said.

"What is the risk? Social unrest. You can call it a lost decade. It may be a lost generation," she said.

Georgieva said advanced economies had spent about 24 per cent of GDP on average on support measures during the pandemic, compared to 6 per cent in emerging markets and 2 per cent in low-income countries.

A former top World Bank executive, Georgieva said vaccination efforts were uneven, with poor countries facing "tremendous difficulties" even as official development funds were going down.

Only one country in Africa - Morocco - had begun vaccinating its citizens, she said, citing grave concerns about increased mortality in many African countries.

"We must do everything in our power to reverse this dangerous divergence," she said, noting developing countries could also miss out on a major shift underway in rich countries to more digital and green economies.

She said accelerating vaccinations could add $9 trillion to the global economy by 2025, with 60 per cent of benefits going to developing countries.

Georgieva said she was still working with IMF shareholders to win support for a new allocation of the IMF's own currency, or Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), which could provide resources to poorer countries.

Former US President Donald Trump had blocked such a move, akin to a central bank printing money. Support from the US, the IMF's dominant shareholder, is more likely under President Joe Biden whose administration is open to a new allocation, according to sources familiar with their views. The Biden administration has not addressed the issue publicly.

Georgieva said an SDR allocation of $250 billion in 2009 had helped stabilize the global economy during the global financial crisis, and the current situation was more grave.

She said the IMF was completing a periodic review of long-term liquidity needs that might justify a new SDR allocation, but gave no further details.

Group of Seven finance officials will discuss a possible new SDR allocation when they meet on Feb 12, the sources said.



Non-Oil Activities Drive Saudi Economic Diversification Efforts

A view of containers at Jeddah Islamic Port on the western coast of Saudi Arabia (Saudi Ports Authority)
A view of containers at Jeddah Islamic Port on the western coast of Saudi Arabia (Saudi Ports Authority)
TT

Non-Oil Activities Drive Saudi Economic Diversification Efforts

A view of containers at Jeddah Islamic Port on the western coast of Saudi Arabia (Saudi Ports Authority)
A view of containers at Jeddah Islamic Port on the western coast of Saudi Arabia (Saudi Ports Authority)

Non-oil activities are playing an increasingly pivotal role in diversifying Saudi Arabia’s economy, currently contributing 51% to the total real GDP, with expectations to reach 65% by the decade’s end.

This shift aligns with the country's efforts to rely on varied income sources across multiple sectors and enhance human capital development in line with Vision 2030.

Saudi Arabia leads in cleaner hydrocarbon energy production and is a frontrunner in renewable energy sectors such as green hydrogen, solar, wind, and others. Notably, it is establishing the world’s largest green hydrogen production facility with a total investment of $8.4 billion.

Faisal Al-Ibrahim, Saudi Minister of Economy and Planning, highlighted the sustained strong growth of non-oil activities since the inception of Vision 2030, constituting 51% of the real GDP, surpassing the oil sector's contribution.

He emphasized the Kingdom’s achievements and prioritized accelerating economic diversification and enhancing human capital development.

“We are now on the brink of a new economic era that will witness transformative changes in the coming decades,” affirmed Al-Ibrahim.

Experts speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat anticipate non-oil sector participation to rise to approximately 65% by 2030, driven significantly by private sector contributions. They noted significant economic evolution towards income sources beyond oil, such as investments in coastal infrastructure projects.

Dr. Abdullah Al-Jassar, member of the Saudi Energy Economics Association, believes the current 51% contribution of the non-oil sector will increase to about 65% by the decade’s end, bolstered by substantial private sector involvement.

He highlighted Saudi Arabia’s notable economic shift towards relying on non-oil activities as a primary source of growth, propelled by key factors including ambitious Vision 2030 programs aimed at economic diversification and reducing oil dependency.

Massive government investments in infrastructure and developmental projects in non-oil sectors like tourism, particularly between 2015 and 2020, exceeding billions of riyals, significantly accelerated economic diversification and renewable energy sector development.

Al-Jassar pointed out that “tourism leads the forefront of key sectors currently relied upon by the non-oil economy,” growing at an average annual rate of 10%, contributing 10.4% to the GDP according to the Q1 2024 Statistics Authority report.

This also includes sectors like mining, manufacturing, and agriculture.

He expects expanding promising sectors such as biotechnology, artificial intelligence, digital economy, and developing logistics services infrastructure to be crucial for export operations, advancing non-oil activity growth.

Al-Jassar assumes non-oil activities will continue to accelerate in the coming years, given the clear roadmap for diversifying the non-oil economy, alongside emerging opportunities attracting more investments to fund their activities. This will enhance Saudi Arabia's resilience against future economic challenges triggered by oil price fluctuations.

Financial advisor Ahmed Al-Jubeir emphasized Saudi Arabia’s long-term strategy for non-oil economic growth, aiming to enhance society, tackle inflation, and strengthen economic, financial, and monetary policies under Vision 2030.

He noted that this strategy would diversify revenue sources without relying on oil, ensuring the sustained evolution and prosperity of the Saudi economy.

This includes investing in citizens, improving their income by providing employment opportunities for all, solving unemployment and housing issues, and increasing women's participation in the workforce to support human resources.