Report: Biden Called Off Strike on Iran-Backed Militias in Syria

President Joe Biden speaks with NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory Mars 2020 Perseverance team, after congratulating them for successfully landing on Mars, during a virtual call in the Roosevelt Room at the White House, Thursday, March 4, 2021. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)
President Joe Biden speaks with NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory Mars 2020 Perseverance team, after congratulating them for successfully landing on Mars, during a virtual call in the Roosevelt Room at the White House, Thursday, March 4, 2021. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)
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Report: Biden Called Off Strike on Iran-Backed Militias in Syria

President Joe Biden speaks with NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory Mars 2020 Perseverance team, after congratulating them for successfully landing on Mars, during a virtual call in the Roosevelt Room at the White House, Thursday, March 4, 2021. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)
President Joe Biden speaks with NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory Mars 2020 Perseverance team, after congratulating them for successfully landing on Mars, during a virtual call in the Roosevelt Room at the White House, Thursday, March 4, 2021. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)

President Joe Biden had ordered airstrikes on two targets inside Syria last month but the second was cancelled, The Wall Street Journal reported.

“After 10 days of deliberations, President Biden had ordered the Pentagon to conduct airstrikes on two targets inside Syria Feb. 26 when an aide delivered an urgent warning about 30 minutes before the bombs were scheduled to fall,” said the report.

The newspaper said that a woman and children were in the courtyard at one of the sites, according to battlefield reconnaissance.

With the F-15Es in flight, the president stopped the attack on the second target but ordered the strike on the first to proceed.

The previously undisclosed episode involving Biden’s first known use of force as commander in chief “was an unexpected coda to a methodical decision-making approach in which the Biden administration sought to balance competing interests in the Middle East tinderbox,” said The Wall Street Journal.

“The goal was to signal to Iran that the new White House team would respond to a Feb. 15 rocket attack in northern Iraq against the US-led coalition but wasn’t seeking to escalate a confrontation with Tehran,” senior administration officials said.

US strikes against Iranian targets in Syria hardly come across as surprising given that the war-torn country is a de facto arena for international forces battling terrorist militias. Biden proceeded with the strike without first opting for permission from Congress.

Nevertheless, the move triggered little to no criticism from Congress members. Unlike Biden, former US President Donald Trump faced fierce criticism for ordering similar strikes.

The US intervention in Syria in late 2014 was conditional and operated according to very precise frameworks within the International Coalition to fight ISIS.

US focus centered around eradicating ISIS and liberating areas that were under the terror group’s control in Syria.

Former US Special Representative for Syria Engagement James Jeffrey had repeatedly reaffirmed that the focus of American military presence in Syria was to fight ISIS, despite advisers and allies in the region, such as Israel, having pressured Trump to fight Iran in the country.

Caroline Rose, a senior analyst at the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy, believes that Biden’s choice to hit Iran-allied militias in Syria reflects a new strategy for targeting the Iraq-based Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) and Iran’s Revolutionary Guards.

The new strategy expands strikes against the two forces from Iraq to include their outposts and presence in Syria, Rose noted to Asharq Al-Awsat.

While the US renewed its commitment to fighting ISIS in northeastern Syria under the leadership of the joint task force, known as Operation Inherent Resolve, the recent strike goes to show that Washington perceives the Iran-linked PMF, which is operating along the Iraqi-Syrian borders, as a destabilizing threat that must be confronted, she added.



Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
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Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

Research published in The Lancet medical journal on Friday estimates that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas war was around 40 percent higher than recorded by the Palestinian territory's health ministry.

The number of dead in Gaza has become a matter of bitter debate since Israel launched its military campaign against Hamas in response to the Palestinian militant group's unprecedented October 7, 2023 attack.

Up to June 30 last year, the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza reported a death toll of 37,877 in the war.

However, the new peer-reviewed study used data from the ministry, an online survey and social media obituaries to estimate that there were between 55,298 and 78,525 deaths from traumatic injuries in Gaza by that time, AFP reported.

The study's best death toll estimate was 64,260, which would mean the health ministry had under-reported the number of deaths to that point by 41 percent.

That toll represented 2.9 percent of Gaza's pre-war population, "or approximately one in 35 inhabitants," the study said.

The UK-led group of researchers estimated that 59 percent of the deaths were women, children and the elderly.

The toll was only for deaths from traumatic injuries, so did not include deaths from a lack of health care or food, or the thousands of missing believed to be buried under rubble.

AFP is unable to independently verify the death toll.

On Thursday, Gaza's health ministry said that 46,006 people had died over the full 15 months of war.

In Israel, the 2023 attack by Hamas resulted in the deaths of 1,208 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.

Israel has repeatedly questioned the credibility of the Gaza health ministry's figures, but the United Nations have said they are reliable.

- 'A good estimate' -

The researchers used a statistical method called "capture-recapture" that has previously been used to estimate the death toll in conflicts around the world.

The analysis used data from three different lists, the first provided by the Gaza health ministry of the bodies identified in hospitals or morgues.

The second list was from an online survey launched by the health ministry in which Palestinians reported the deaths of relatives.

The third was sourced from obituaries posted on social media platforms such as X, Instagram, Facebook and Whatsapp, when the identity of the deceased could be verified.

"We only kept in the analysis those who were confirmed dead by their relatives or confirmed dead by the morgues and the hospital," lead study author Zeina Jamaluddine, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told AFP.

The researchers scoured the lists, searching for duplicates.

"Then we looked at the overlaps between the three lists, and based on the overlaps, you can come up with a total estimation of the population that was killed," Jamaluddine said.

Patrick Ball, a statistician at the US-based Human Rights Data Analysis Group not involved in the research, has used capture-recapture methods to estimate death tolls for conflicts in Guatemala, Kosovo, Peru and Colombia.

Ball told AFP the well-tested technique has been used for centuries and that the researchers had reached "a good estimate" for Gaza.

Kevin McConway, a professor of applied statistics at Britain's Open University, told AFP there was "inevitably a lot of uncertainty" when making estimates from incomplete data.

But he said it was "admirable" that the researchers had used three other statistical analysis approaches to check their estimates.

"Overall, I find these estimates reasonably compelling, he added.

- 'Criticism' expected from both sides -

The researchers cautioned that the hospital lists do not always provide the cause of death, so it was possible that people with non-traumatic health problems -- such as a heart attack -- could have been included, potentially leading to an overestimate.

However, there were other ways that the war's toll could still be underestimated.

The study did not include missing people. The UN humanitarian agency OCHA has said that around 10,000 missing Gazans are thought to be buried under rubble.

There are also indirect ways that war can claim lives, such as a lack of healthcare, food, water, sanitation or the spread of disease. All have stricken Gaza since October 2023.

In a contentious, non-peer-reviewed letter published in The Lancet in July, another group of researchers used the rate of indirect deaths seen in other conflicts to suggest that 186,000 deaths could eventually be attributed to the Gaza war.

The new study suggested that this projection "might be inappropriate due to obvious differences in the pre-war burden of disease" in Gaza compared to conflicts in countries such as Burundi and East Timor.

Jamaluddine said she expected that "criticism is going to come from different sides" about the new research.

She spoke out against the "obsession" of arguing about death tolls, emphasizing that "we already know that there is a lot of high mortality.”