عربي English Türkçe اردو فارسى
Logo
Latest News
Features

Opposition Conference in Syria Commits to Political Transition

A general view of Damascus in June 2105. (Getty Images)
A general view of Damascus in June 2105. (Getty Images)
TT
TT

Opposition Conference in Syria Commits to Political Transition

A general view of Damascus in June 2105. (Getty Images)
A general view of Damascus in June 2105. (Getty Images)

Opposition forces within Syria, led by the National Coordination Committee, are seeking “diplomatic protection” from Damascus’ allies, especially Moscow and Tehran, to hold their expanded meeting on Saturday.

The conference is aimed at forming the “National Democratic Front” and will express its commitment to the “political transition” and implementation of the Geneva declaration and United Nations Security Council resolutions 2118 and 2254.

The committee is continuing its negotiations with the Syrian Democratic Council (SDC) to complete the agreement on principles between them. The two parties had previously resolved disputes related to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Kurdish autonomous administration in the area east of the Euphrates River.

General Coordinator of the Coordination Committee, Hassan Abdulazim told Asharq Al-Awsat that invitations have been sent out to governments that enjoy diplomatic representation in Damascus, including Russia, Iran, China and Egypt, to attend the opening of the conference on Saturday.

Secretary-General of the Arab Democratic Socialist Union Party, Ahmed al-Asrawi said there were no guarantees that the conference will be held and that diplomatic presence at the meeting does not “protect it.” The party is a member of the National Coordination Committee.

A member of the party revealed to Asharq Al-Awsat that a former member of the Coordination Committee, Abdulaziz al-Kheir had “disappeared” shorty after arriving in Damascus from an official visit to China.

Blocs and conferences
The National Coordination Committee was formed in June 2011. It is comprised of 11 parties and opposition forces inside Syria and beyond. It is aimed at introducing national democratic change in Syria and rejecting foreign meddling in the country. It also demands political transition in line with the 2012 Geneva declaration and resolutions 2118 and 2254.

In September 2012, the committee held a “national salvation conference” in Damascus. The event was attended by representatives and ambassadors of Russia, Iran and Egypt. It demanded “radical democratic change” in the country.

At some point, a rift emerged between the Arab Democratic Socialist Union Party and Coordination Committee. The party would then form alliances with the SDF, which is backed by the United States and had spearheaded battles against the ISIS terrorist group.

In late 2015, Riyadh hosted an expanded meeting for the opposition. It led to the formation of the High Negotiations Committee (HNC). It is formed of 36 members: eight members from the coalition, four from the Moscow platform, four from the Cairo platform, five from the Coordination Committee, seven from military factions, eight independent figures and a Kurdish member of the coalition.

Wider alliance
Abdulazim told Asharq Al-Awsat on Monday that Saturday’s conference will witness the participation of 11 members of the HNC and ten other bodies with the aim of achieving a “wider alliance of national forces that are committed to the political solution”. The solution would be based on the Geneva declaration and resolutions 2118 and 2254.

Asrawi said the idea of the conference was proposed some two years ago. It is “not a substitute” to the opposition or coalition, he told Asharq Al-Awsat. The coalition has come under criticism for growing “too close” to Turkey.

Abdulazim said the coalition, which is present outside Syria, has a reach within the country, while “we are on the inside and have a reach outside the country. We therefore, complement each other.”

Presidential elections
Abdulazim and Asrawi said the conference is not related to the upcoming presidential elections, which are set for the summer.

The elections have been a point of contention between Moscow and Tehran, which want to hold them according to the 2012 constitution, and between Washington and western countries, which refuse to recognize elections that are not held according to resolution 2254,

Abdulazim has called for a boycott of the elections, which he described as a farce. He underscored the opposition’s boycott and urging the people to reject them as well. He explained that the polls undermine attempts to reach a negotiated political solution in line with the UN resolutions and the Geneva declaration.

Asrawi, meanwhile, remarked that opposition forces inside Syria have not taken part in elections since 1973.

Most Viewed

 
 
Features

Türkiye and Russia Engage in Delicate Maneuvers over Syria after Assad’s Downfall

Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and Turkish President Recep Tayyib Erdogan shake hands as they pose for photos during a meeting on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Astana, Kazakhstan, on July 3, 2024. (Sergey Guneyev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP, File)
Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and Turkish President Recep Tayyib Erdogan shake hands as they pose for photos during a meeting on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Astana, Kazakhstan, on July 3, 2024. (Sergey Guneyev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP, File)
TT
TT

Türkiye and Russia Engage in Delicate Maneuvers over Syria after Assad’s Downfall

Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and Turkish President Recep Tayyib Erdogan shake hands as they pose for photos during a meeting on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Astana, Kazakhstan, on July 3, 2024. (Sergey Guneyev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP, File)
Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and Turkish President Recep Tayyib Erdogan shake hands as they pose for photos during a meeting on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Astana, Kazakhstan, on July 3, 2024. (Sergey Guneyev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP, File)

The rapid downfall of Syrian leader Bashar Assad has touched off a new round of delicate geopolitical maneuvering between Russia's Vladimir Putin and Türkiye’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
With the dust still settling from the stunning events in Damascus, the outcome for now seems to be favoring Ankara, which backed the victorious opposition factions, while Moscow suffered a bruising blow to its international clout.
“In the game of Czars vs. Sultans, this is Sultans 1 and Czars 0,” said Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute. “Far from being allies, Türkiye and Russia are competitors. And in this case, Türkiye has outsmarted Russia.”
The Assad regime’s demise opens another chapter in the complex relationship between Putin and Erdogan, with wide-ranging implications not just for Syria but also for Ukraine and the two leaders' ties with Washington.
Russia and Türkiye share economic and security interests — along with an intense rivalry. The personal relationship between Putin and Erdogan often sees them both praising each other, even as they jockey for political and economic gains.
“There are currently only two leaders left in the world -- there is me and there is Vladimir Putin,” Erdogan said recently, reflecting the respect for the Kremlin leader. Putin, in turn, has often praises Erdogan’s political prowess.
Conflicts and deals Russia and Türkiye backed opposing sides in Syria’s civil war that started in 2011, putting them on a collision course. Tensions spiraled when a Turkish fighter jet shot down a Russian warplane near the Türkiye-Syria border in November 2015, soon after Moscow launched its air campaign to support Assad.
The Kremlin responded with sweeping economic sanctions that halted Turkish imports, drove Turkish companies from the lucrative Russian market and cut the flow of Russian tourists to Türkiye’s resorts.
Faced with massive economic damage, Erdogan apologized months later. Soon after, Putin staunchly supported him when he faced an attempted military coup in July 2016, helping to warm ties quickly.
In 2018, Moscow and Ankara negotiated a ceasefire and de-escalation deal for the opposition-held Idlib province in northwestern Syria on the border with Türkiye and sought to anchor the often-violated agreement with follow-up deals in the next few years.
But even as they cooperated on Syria, Moscow and Ankara also vied for influence in Libya, where Russia supported forces loyal to military commander Khalifa Hifter while Türkiye backed his Tripoli-based foes. Türkiye also aggressively sought to increase its leverage in the former Soviet Central Asian nations competing with Russia and China.
In 2020, Moscow backed off when Türkiye’s ally Azerbaijan routed ethnic Armenian forces in the fighting over the breakaway region of Karabakh. Even though Armenia hosted a Russian military base, the Kremlin has engaged in a delicate balancing act, seeking to maintain warm ties with both Azerbaijan and Türkiye.
While their political interests often clashed, economic ties boomed, with Russia boosting natural gas exports to Türkiye via a Black Sea pipeline; by building Türkiye’s first nuclear plant; and by providing the NATO member with advanced air defense systems — to Washington’s dismay.
Relations amid the war in Ukraine
Ties with Türkiye grew even more important for Putin after he invaded Ukraine in 2022, Europe’s largest conflict since World War II.
The West responded with economic sanctions that barred Russia from most Western markets, restricted its access to international financial system, shut transport routes and halted exports of key technologies. Türkiye, which didn’t join the sanctions, has emerged as Russia’s key gateway to global markets, strengthening Erdogan’s hand in negotiations with Putin.
While Türkiye backed Ukraine’s territorial integrity and supplied Kyiv with weapons, Erdogan echoed Putin in accusing the US and NATO of fomenting the conflict. Putin has praised Erdogan for offering to mediate a settlement.
In March 2022, Türkiye hosted Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Istanbul that soon collapsed, with both Putin and Erdogan blaming the West for their failure.
Later that year, Ankara pooled efforts with the United Nations to broker a deal that opened the door for Ukrainian grain exports from its Black Sea ports, an agreement that helped drive down global food prices before falling apart the following year.
Türkiye’s balancing act in Ukraine is driven by its dependence on the vast Russian market, supplies of natural gas and a flow of tourists.
Russia’s focus on Ukraine has eroded its clout in regions where Türkiye and other players have tried to take advantage of Moscow's withering influence.
In September 2023, Azerbaijan reclaimed control over all of Karabakh in an one-day blitz while Russian regional peacekeepers stood back. That hurt Russia’s ties with Armenia, which has shifted increasingly toward the West.
Moscow's new look at Syria
Focused on Ukraine, Russia had few resources left for Syria at a time when Hezbollah similarly pulled back its fighters amid the war with Israel and Iranian support for Assad also weakened.
Russia tried to sponsor talks on normalizing relations between Türkiye and Syria, but Assad stonewalled them, refusing any compromise.
Assad’s intransigence helped trigger the Türkiye-backed opposition’s offensive in November. The underfunded and demoralized Syrian army quickly crumbled, allowing the opposition to sweep across the country and capture Damascus.
Even as it has offered asylum to Assad and his family, Russia has reached out to Syria's new leaders, seeking to ensure security for its troops still there and extend leases on its naval and air bases.
At his annual news conference Thursday, Putin said Russia offered Syria's new leaders to use the bases for humanitarian aid deliveries and suggested Moscow could offer other incentives.
While Assad's demise dealt a heavy blow to Russia, some believe Moscow could navigate the rapidly changing environment to retain at least some clout.
“Syria’s opposition forces well understand that the country’s future is uncertain,” said Nikolay Kozhanov, a consulting fellow with Chathan House’s Russia and Eurasia program, in a commentary. “They want Russia, if not as a friend, then a neutral party.”
He noted that “Moscow’s main goal will be to maintain at least a minimal level of influence through a military presence, for example, at its existing bases, or through contacts with other regional players, such as Türkiye.”
Cagaptay observed that while Türkiye would like to see an end to Russia’s military presence in Syria, Ankara’s position will depend on how relations evolve with Washington.
“If we see a reset in US-Turkish ties where Türkiye thinks it can comfortably lean on the U.S. against Russia, I can see Erdogan adopting a kind of more boisterous tone vis a vis Putin,” he said.
But if the US maintains its alliance with the Kurds and stands against Türkiye’s effort to push back on Kurdish fighters in northeastern Syria, “Ankara may decide that it needs to continue to play all sides as it has been doing for about a decade now,” Cagaptay said.
Putin noted Russia understands Türkiye’s motives in securing its borders, but he also warned that the Kurds could offer strong resistance if attacked.
Emre Ersen, a Russia expert at Istanbul’s Marmara University, also noted that while Assad’s fall will diminish Moscow’s influence, “the relationship between Türkiye and Russia will not be devastated by the events in Syria.”
“Obviously, they still need to reach out to each other regarding the crisis in Ukraine, but also because they have very significant economic relations,” Ersen said, adding that Erdogan could be expected to seek more concessions from Russia on energy and trade issues.