Saudi Non-Oil GDP Growth Forecast to Grow 3.9% in 2021

A night view of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. (Reuters file photo)
A night view of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. (Reuters file photo)
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Saudi Non-Oil GDP Growth Forecast to Grow 3.9% in 2021

A night view of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. (Reuters file photo)
A night view of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. (Reuters file photo)

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected Saudi Arabia’s real GDP growth at 2.1 percent this year, noting that the real non-oil GDP growth recovery is expected to reach 3.9 percent in 2021.

Real oil GDP growth is projected to reach -0.5% in 2021, according to the OPEC+ agreement output levels.

Further, the IMF forecast the Saudi deficit to decline to 4.2 percent of the GDP this year.

The statement underscored the positive results of the Saudi economic reforms, projected continuation in the economic recovery, an expected decline in the unemployment rate and inflation.

It also highlighted the success of the Saudi government's swift and decisive containment measures to limit COVID-19 cases and fatalities.

The statement further commented on the effective role of fiscal policies, and financial sector, and employment initiatives launched by the government and the Saudi Central Bank (SAMA) that helped cushion the impact of the pandemic on individuals and the private sector.

This coincides with the great progress in implementing the vaccination campaign during recent months.

The IMF also lauded the Kingdom's strong economic fundamentals supported by Vision 2030, which helped establish robust governance and cooperation between ministries and entities.

In light of this, it highlighted the progress made by the "Etimad" platform in strengthening government financial management.

In addition, it commended the impressive pace of equity and debt market reforms taken by the Saudi Capital Market Authority (CMA) and the National Debt Management Center, which contributed to increasing capital raising options for companies and investment opportunities.

Regarding Saudi women's employment in the labor market, the statement praised the wide steps taken by the government, as estimations show that the rate of Saudi women in the total workforce has increased by 13 points to exceed 33 percent during the past two years.

In addition, it welcomed the Saudi Arabia Green Initiative and its potential in boosting growth and employment, as well as reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

The Ministry of Finance welcomed the IMF statement.

Minister of Finance Mohammed Al-Jadaan said that the statement reaffirms the success of the Kingdom's government in achieving positive results and tangible successes during the most challenging year for the whole world.

"Such results have been achieved despite the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, fluctuations in oil prices, sharp economic fluctuations, decline in global demand, receding growth and other challenges that the Saudi government has risen to.

“The continued implementation of Vision 2030 programs, plans and goals has enabled the Kingdom to introduce many economic and structural reforms that demonstrate the efforts in developing the financial sector and achieving fiscal sustainability that enhances the Saudi economy's strength despite all the challenges,” Jadaan added.



Oil Prices Inch up on Geopolitical Risks, Easing Tariff Worries

A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk, in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia July 14, 2025. REUTERS/Stringer/ File Photo
A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk, in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia July 14, 2025. REUTERS/Stringer/ File Photo
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Oil Prices Inch up on Geopolitical Risks, Easing Tariff Worries

A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk, in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia July 14, 2025. REUTERS/Stringer/ File Photo
A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk, in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia July 14, 2025. REUTERS/Stringer/ File Photo

Oil prices edged up on Thursday on signs of easing trade tensions, stronger than expected economic data from the world's top oil consumers and renewed risks in the Middle East.

Brent crude futures were up 17 cents, or around 0.3%, to $68.67 a barrel at 0856 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 31 cents, or 0.5%, at $66.69.

"Oil thinking has been distracted from the Middle East, and the reminders of Israel's attacks into Syria and the drone attacks on oil infrastructure in Kurdistan are timely and once again add a little fizz to proceedings," said John Evans, analyst at PVM Oil Associates, Reuters reported.

"Any other incident that deprives the market of barrels will be added to the low inventory narrative and we expect prices to continue to hold with any risk being to the upside."

Drone attacks on oilfields in Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdistan region have slashed crude output by up to 150,000 barrels per day, two energy officials said on Wednesday, as infrastructure damage forced multiple shutdowns.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has said letters notifying smaller countries of their US tariff rates would go out soon, which along with his renewed optimism about prospects of a deal with Beijing on illicit drugs and an agreement possible with Europe helped calm investors.

"Trump softened tones on China and proposed lower tariff rates on smaller countries, which are seen as positive developments in the global trade outlooks," said independent analyst Tina Teng.

"China's better-than-expected economic data and the US's larger-than-expected oil inventory draw have both been bullish factors for oil prices."

US crude inventories fell more than expected by 3.9 million barrels to 422.2 million barrels last week, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday, suggesting stronger refinery activity, tighter supply, and increased demand.

However, larger than expected builds in gasoline and diesel inventories capped price gains, raising concerns of weakening demand from summer travel, ANZ analysts said in a note on Thursday.

Data showed that China's June crude oil throughput was up 8.5% from a year ago, implying stronger fuel demand.