Saudi Non-Oil GDP Growth Forecast to Grow 3.9% in 2021

A night view of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. (Reuters file photo)
A night view of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. (Reuters file photo)
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Saudi Non-Oil GDP Growth Forecast to Grow 3.9% in 2021

A night view of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. (Reuters file photo)
A night view of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. (Reuters file photo)

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected Saudi Arabia’s real GDP growth at 2.1 percent this year, noting that the real non-oil GDP growth recovery is expected to reach 3.9 percent in 2021.

Real oil GDP growth is projected to reach -0.5% in 2021, according to the OPEC+ agreement output levels.

Further, the IMF forecast the Saudi deficit to decline to 4.2 percent of the GDP this year.

The statement underscored the positive results of the Saudi economic reforms, projected continuation in the economic recovery, an expected decline in the unemployment rate and inflation.

It also highlighted the success of the Saudi government's swift and decisive containment measures to limit COVID-19 cases and fatalities.

The statement further commented on the effective role of fiscal policies, and financial sector, and employment initiatives launched by the government and the Saudi Central Bank (SAMA) that helped cushion the impact of the pandemic on individuals and the private sector.

This coincides with the great progress in implementing the vaccination campaign during recent months.

The IMF also lauded the Kingdom's strong economic fundamentals supported by Vision 2030, which helped establish robust governance and cooperation between ministries and entities.

In light of this, it highlighted the progress made by the "Etimad" platform in strengthening government financial management.

In addition, it commended the impressive pace of equity and debt market reforms taken by the Saudi Capital Market Authority (CMA) and the National Debt Management Center, which contributed to increasing capital raising options for companies and investment opportunities.

Regarding Saudi women's employment in the labor market, the statement praised the wide steps taken by the government, as estimations show that the rate of Saudi women in the total workforce has increased by 13 points to exceed 33 percent during the past two years.

In addition, it welcomed the Saudi Arabia Green Initiative and its potential in boosting growth and employment, as well as reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

The Ministry of Finance welcomed the IMF statement.

Minister of Finance Mohammed Al-Jadaan said that the statement reaffirms the success of the Kingdom's government in achieving positive results and tangible successes during the most challenging year for the whole world.

"Such results have been achieved despite the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, fluctuations in oil prices, sharp economic fluctuations, decline in global demand, receding growth and other challenges that the Saudi government has risen to.

“The continued implementation of Vision 2030 programs, plans and goals has enabled the Kingdom to introduce many economic and structural reforms that demonstrate the efforts in developing the financial sector and achieving fiscal sustainability that enhances the Saudi economy's strength despite all the challenges,” Jadaan added.



Oil Prices Rise as Iran Suspends Cooperation with UN Nuclear Watchdog

An aerial view shows a crude oil tanker at an oil terminal off Waidiao island in Zhoushan, Zhejiang province, China January 4, 2023. China Daily via REUTERS
An aerial view shows a crude oil tanker at an oil terminal off Waidiao island in Zhoushan, Zhejiang province, China January 4, 2023. China Daily via REUTERS
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Oil Prices Rise as Iran Suspends Cooperation with UN Nuclear Watchdog

An aerial view shows a crude oil tanker at an oil terminal off Waidiao island in Zhoushan, Zhejiang province, China January 4, 2023. China Daily via REUTERS
An aerial view shows a crude oil tanker at an oil terminal off Waidiao island in Zhoushan, Zhejiang province, China January 4, 2023. China Daily via REUTERS

Oil futures edged up on Wednesday as Iran suspended cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog and markets weighed expectations of more supply from major producers next month, while the US dollar softened further. Brent crude was up 55 cents, or 0.8%, to $67.66 a barrel at 1301 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude rose 58 cents, or nearly 0.9%, to $66.03 a barrel.

Brent has traded between a high of $69.05 a barrel and low of $66.34 since June 25, as concerns of supply disruptions in the Middle East have ebbed following a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. Iran enacted a law on Wednesday that stipulates any future inspection of its nuclear sites by the International Atomic Energy Agency needs approval by Tehran's Supreme National Security Council. The country has accused the agency of siding with Western countries and providing a justification for Israel's air strikes, according to Reuters.

"The market is pricing in some geopolitical risk premium from Iran's move on the IAEA," said Giovanni Staunovo, a commodity analyst at UBS. "But this is about sentiment, there are no disruptions to oil." Planned supply increases by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies including Russia, a group known as OPEC+, appear already priced in by investors and are unlikely to catch markets off-guard again imminently, said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at brokerage Phillip Nova. Four OPEC+ sources told Reuters last week the group plans to raise output by 411,000 barrels per day next month when it meets on July 6, a similar amount to the hikes agreed for May, June and July. "We are all talking about additional supply coming to the market, but the supply has not really hit the market," UBS' Staunovo said. "Probably because it's being consumed domestically."

Overall OPEC+ exports are relatively flat to slightly down since March, Staunovo said. He expects this trend to persist over the summer as hot weather drives higher energy demand. The greenback continued to weaken, falling to a 3-1/2-year low against its major peers on Wednesday. A weaker dollar tends to support oil prices, as it can boost demand for buyers paying in other currencies.

The release of the key US monthly employment report on Thursday will shape expectations around the depth and timing of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the second half of this year, said Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG.

Lower interest rates could spur economic activity, which would in turn boost oil demand. Official US oil stockpile data from the Energy Information Administration is due to be released at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT) on Wednesday. American Petroleum Institute data late on Tuesday showed US crude oil inventories rose by 680,000 barrels in the past week at a time when stockpiles are typically drawn down amid summer demand, sources said.