Kurdish Leader Says he Fears ISIS Comeback in Iraq

A firefighter inspects the site of a car bomb attack in Sadr City district of Baghdad, Iraq April 15, 2021. (Reuters)
A firefighter inspects the site of a car bomb attack in Sadr City district of Baghdad, Iraq April 15, 2021. (Reuters)
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Kurdish Leader Says he Fears ISIS Comeback in Iraq

A firefighter inspects the site of a car bomb attack in Sadr City district of Baghdad, Iraq April 15, 2021. (Reuters)
A firefighter inspects the site of a car bomb attack in Sadr City district of Baghdad, Iraq April 15, 2021. (Reuters)

A senior Kurdish official has said there are growing indications that ISIS is trying to make a comeback after an uptick in attacks in Iraq.

At least 19 members of Iraqi and Iraqi Kurdish security forces have been killed in recent days across the country, according to military statements and security officials, prompting calls from Iraq's president to remain vigilant to the threat of a resurgent ISIS.

The attacks come after Baghdad's deadliest suicide bombing in three years, claimed in January by the ultra-hardline group, and amid fears that a reduction of US-led forces could upset stability.

"It seems like (ISIS) have re-organized," Lahur Talabany, co-president of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan party and a former intelligence chief told Reuters in an interview.

Originally an offshoot of al-Qaeda, ISIS took large swathes of Iraq and Syria from 2014, imposing a reign of terror with public beheadings and attacks by supporters abroad.

ISIS was declared militarily defeated in 2017 but has since waged a steady insurgency across parts of northern Iraq and a porous border with neighboring Syria.

Recent months have witnessed more than 25 deadly attacks that Iraqi officials attribute to ISIS militants. The January bombing of a crowded Baghdad market killed more than 30 people.

Talabany said ISIS had never been completely eliminated.

He said there are still several thousand ISIS militants operating in Iraq. Some Western military officials say the number operating between Iraq and Syria could be more than 10,000.

Talabany was specially alarmed at the ability of ISIS to recruit, including through social media. Three weeks ago, 38 ISIS recruits, all Kurds between the age of 20 and 22, were arrested, he said.

"They were about to carry out attacks, they received equipment and bombs and explosives. This was a wakeup call," Talabany recalled.

Talabany's concerns are shared by Iraqi leaders. President Barham Salih said on Twitter last week that the country "cannot afford to be complacent" in combating ISIS militants.

Fears over US withdrawal
A lack of coordination between the Iraqi military and forces belonging to the autonomous Kurdistan region have been blamed for some security failures.

The two sides fought against ISIS but relations have deteriorated since a failed Kurdish bid for full independence in 2017, halted militarily by Baghdad.

Territory disputed by both sides remains fertile ground for ISIS to operate in, Talabany said.

"Lack of coordination between Erbil (the Kurdish capital) and Baghdad has led to ISIS re-emerging and getting stronger and being more operational and capable," he said.

The United States has reduced its forces from around 5,000 that were stationed to help combat ISIS to half that number in the last year.

As the military coalition that Washington leads reduces its numbers in Iraq, NATO is expected to fill the gap in training and coordination with Iraqi forces, but is not mandated to take part in combat operations.

Iran-backed militias, which have become the chief adversary of the United States in Iraq since the defeat of ISIS, demand the complete withdrawal of US forces, something they have pushed for more aggressively since the United States killed Iranian military leader Qassem Soleimani last year.

Talabany said he feared the implications of a US military drawdown. The United States withdrew troops from Iraq in 2011, leaving security gaps that the militants were able to exploit.



Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
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Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

Research published in The Lancet medical journal on Friday estimates that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas war was around 40 percent higher than recorded by the Palestinian territory's health ministry.

The number of dead in Gaza has become a matter of bitter debate since Israel launched its military campaign against Hamas in response to the Palestinian militant group's unprecedented October 7, 2023 attack.

Up to June 30 last year, the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza reported a death toll of 37,877 in the war.

However, the new peer-reviewed study used data from the ministry, an online survey and social media obituaries to estimate that there were between 55,298 and 78,525 deaths from traumatic injuries in Gaza by that time, AFP reported.

The study's best death toll estimate was 64,260, which would mean the health ministry had under-reported the number of deaths to that point by 41 percent.

That toll represented 2.9 percent of Gaza's pre-war population, "or approximately one in 35 inhabitants," the study said.

The UK-led group of researchers estimated that 59 percent of the deaths were women, children and the elderly.

The toll was only for deaths from traumatic injuries, so did not include deaths from a lack of health care or food, or the thousands of missing believed to be buried under rubble.

AFP is unable to independently verify the death toll.

On Thursday, Gaza's health ministry said that 46,006 people had died over the full 15 months of war.

In Israel, the 2023 attack by Hamas resulted in the deaths of 1,208 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.

Israel has repeatedly questioned the credibility of the Gaza health ministry's figures, but the United Nations have said they are reliable.

- 'A good estimate' -

The researchers used a statistical method called "capture-recapture" that has previously been used to estimate the death toll in conflicts around the world.

The analysis used data from three different lists, the first provided by the Gaza health ministry of the bodies identified in hospitals or morgues.

The second list was from an online survey launched by the health ministry in which Palestinians reported the deaths of relatives.

The third was sourced from obituaries posted on social media platforms such as X, Instagram, Facebook and Whatsapp, when the identity of the deceased could be verified.

"We only kept in the analysis those who were confirmed dead by their relatives or confirmed dead by the morgues and the hospital," lead study author Zeina Jamaluddine, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told AFP.

The researchers scoured the lists, searching for duplicates.

"Then we looked at the overlaps between the three lists, and based on the overlaps, you can come up with a total estimation of the population that was killed," Jamaluddine said.

Patrick Ball, a statistician at the US-based Human Rights Data Analysis Group not involved in the research, has used capture-recapture methods to estimate death tolls for conflicts in Guatemala, Kosovo, Peru and Colombia.

Ball told AFP the well-tested technique has been used for centuries and that the researchers had reached "a good estimate" for Gaza.

Kevin McConway, a professor of applied statistics at Britain's Open University, told AFP there was "inevitably a lot of uncertainty" when making estimates from incomplete data.

But he said it was "admirable" that the researchers had used three other statistical analysis approaches to check their estimates.

"Overall, I find these estimates reasonably compelling, he added.

- 'Criticism' expected from both sides -

The researchers cautioned that the hospital lists do not always provide the cause of death, so it was possible that people with non-traumatic health problems -- such as a heart attack -- could have been included, potentially leading to an overestimate.

However, there were other ways that the war's toll could still be underestimated.

The study did not include missing people. The UN humanitarian agency OCHA has said that around 10,000 missing Gazans are thought to be buried under rubble.

There are also indirect ways that war can claim lives, such as a lack of healthcare, food, water, sanitation or the spread of disease. All have stricken Gaza since October 2023.

In a contentious, non-peer-reviewed letter published in The Lancet in July, another group of researchers used the rate of indirect deaths seen in other conflicts to suggest that 186,000 deaths could eventually be attributed to the Gaza war.

The new study suggested that this projection "might be inappropriate due to obvious differences in the pre-war burden of disease" in Gaza compared to conflicts in countries such as Burundi and East Timor.

Jamaluddine said she expected that "criticism is going to come from different sides" about the new research.

She spoke out against the "obsession" of arguing about death tolls, emphasizing that "we already know that there is a lot of high mortality.”