Tunisia's Political Scene is about to Change

A file photo shows Tunisia’s President Kais Saied. (Fethi Belaid/AFP)
A file photo shows Tunisia’s President Kais Saied. (Fethi Belaid/AFP)
TT

Tunisia's Political Scene is about to Change

A file photo shows Tunisia’s President Kais Saied. (Fethi Belaid/AFP)
A file photo shows Tunisia’s President Kais Saied. (Fethi Belaid/AFP)

The political scene in Tunisia is heading towards many shifts and the indicators on that are many. The announcement of a "positive development" in the president's connection with both the parliament and the government is expected to accelerate these shifts and put an end to over two years of tension and exchange of accusations.

Although Abir Moussi, president of the Free Destourian Party and some of her allies in the opposition, have ascended their criticism of the parliamentary and political ruling majority, the behind-the-scene actions suggest "new agreements" that could lead to a "political government" more open on the opposition, syndicates, and independent experts. The first indicators on the "upcoming change" surfaced when the fighting political parties and syndicates ascended their verbal attack against the president, speaker, and prime minister, in conjunction with "high profile" meetings that discussed possible solutions for the crisis. These solutions start with the formation of a government that replaces the current one including 11 ministers rejected by Kais Saied.

Perhaps the most serious escalation since Zine El Abidine Ben Ali was toppled, in early 2011, is that the labor syndicates, mainly the Tunisian General Labor Union, which plays a major political role in the country, has called for early presidential and parliamentary elections, removal of the president, speaker, and prime minister, and "to return the rule to the people."

The three presidencies didn't comment on these calls despite the campaign launched by local and international media outlets covering what they considered "a first" in the history of syndicates calling for the resignation of the president and the speaker.

Meanwhile, many political parties have warned from clashes among the syndical leadership and the three presidents following the intense criticisms launched by top figures in the Tunisian General Labor Union.

On the other hand, leaders of opposition parties, including the People's Movement, Destourian, Constitutional Liberal, and the Democratic Current, have welcomed the calls for "early elections."

Fathi al-Ayadi, spokesperson to Ennahda Movement (Islamic party) said his party is "ready for early elections."

Popular Referendum

Many constitutional law experts like Academic Kamal bin Massoud and former law school dean Rafe' bin Ashour ruled out the option of the early election without "political consensus" that amends the constitution and electoral law. According to the two experts, the current Tunisian constitution does not allow any political authority, including the president or the parliament, to cancel the results of the 2019 elections and call for early ones.

For her part, legal expert Mona Karim said the constitution allows the president to suspend the parliament, and call for early elections in "rare cases like when the prime minister-designate fails to win the support of the parliamentary majority two times in a row."

Former minister and official at the People's Movement opposition party Fathi Belhaj, and Spokesperson to Ennahda Movement, MP Fathi al-Ayadi saw that "organizing early elections before amending the electoral law would lead to the same political scene."

Therefore, a number of political activists including former ministers Mohsen Marzouk, Kamel Jendoubi, and former head of the bar association Shawki Taieb have called for "a popular referendum" to change the political system from parliamentary to presidential. Some former left-wing activists have also launched the "Resistance" initiative aimed at collecting tens of thousands of signatures supporting the "popular referendum."

- Presidency for life?

Most of the ruling and opposing figures, including the leader of the Popular Front Hamma Hammami, and former minister Rafiq Abdul- Salam have clearly opposed a proposal attributed to the president and his supporters to organize a "popular referendum" on suspending the "revolution constitution 2014" and readopting the constitution of 1959, which was criticized by most politicians since 2011. They also accused him of "legitimizing tyranny, one-man rule, and the presidency for life."

Secretary-General of the General Labor Union Noureddine Taboubi revealed that Saied is considering "preparing a referendum to readopt the constitution of 1959," because, according to the president, the new constitution "limited the powers of the president and emphasized authority overlap with the prime minister and the parliament."

The official presidency site posted photos and videos of Kais Saied's meeting with former MP and activist Mubarka Brahmi, showing him holding pages from the ruling party's Labor newspaper in 1959 that praise statements by President Habib Bourguiba on the constitution of June 1959. These photos and news stirred more criticisms of the president and some of his advisors, accusing them of "waiving the democratic achievements in the 2014 constitution."

However, some constitutional law experts, including Academic and International Law expert Haikal bin Mahfouz called for "saving the country from its political crisis, and power conflict through an advisory referendum."

In an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat, Bin Mahfouz said: "The constitution of 2014 allows popular referendums in cases related to human rights, but doesn't prohibit the president from calling for an advisory referendum on a partial adjustment of the political system [...] the advisory referendum is not binding but can help decision-makers address problems, and save the country from this useless political circle."

- Powers of the president

On the other hand, many have recently called for expanding the president's powers over the parliament and the government.

These calls were launched before 2011 by Al-Sadiq Sha'ban and Béchir Tekkari, ministers of justice and education back then, who believed that the current constitution allows the president to announce emergency measures when the national security is in danger. These measures include exceptional legal procedures that expand his powers and limit the role of the parliament and the government affected by political conflicts, and partisan and personal disputes.

He recently met with the President in Carthage Palace, and called for "respecting the presidency and expanding its powers to save the country."

Zeitoun had also announced a similar position when conflicts erupted between late President Beji Caid Essebsi and Prime Minister Youssef Chahed, who allied with Ennahda Movement at the time. Zeitoun was among few members in Ennahda to support the presidential palace in its dispute with Chahed and his government.

- Mediations…and a Deal

In line with the fiery statements and calls in the syndical and political speeches, official sources from several parties and decision-making circles confirmed that Tunisia is approaching a new phase of "political agreement" that starts by ending the disputes between the presidency and the parliament, and between the President and Rached Ghannouchi.

The change path has kicked off after revealing the dialogue and political negotiations the president carried out with several diplomatic and political figures including Lotfi Zeitoun, and his old friend and former left leader Ridha Chiheb el-Mekki known as "Reda Lenin." Few days after the announcement, Saied had a first-of-its-kind, one hour and a half meeting with Speaker Rached Ghannouchi, the historic leader of the Ennahda Movement.

Many sources confirmed that this meeting led to a "comprehensive agreement" on addressing the current political crisis, which might include the announcement of a major government modification that excludes the ministers objected by Saied because of "corruption suspicions" six months ago."

- Collapse of "Political Belt?"

Meanwhile, two leaders from the Heart of Tunisia party, including MP Osama al-Khalifi criticized the approach between the speaker and the President and his allies, members of the Democratic Block in the parliament.

MPs from the "political and parliamentary belt" warned the government that the ruling coalition could weaken in case Ghannouchi and Ennahda leadership "imply" they might dismiss current PM Hichem Mechichi, who is supported by tens of MPs from the parties that formed the ruling Constitutional Democratic Rally in 2011.

Following the release of Businessman Nabil al-Qarawi, leader of Heart of Tunisia party who rivaled Kais Saied in the final round of the 2019 elections, calls have risen to form a "new political coalition" that includes the so-called "modernists and liberals" facing "Islamist" opponents, MPs of Ennahda and Al Karama coalition. If formed, this "coalition" could lead to a government headed by Mechichi and supported by Abir Moussi's Destourian Party, and may even win the support of the Presidential Palace. This government could pledge to close the financial and judicial cases that led to the arrest of Qarawi and temporarily seized his properties and assets in 2019 and 2020.

However, optimistic remarks stated by figures known as "extremists" like former health minister and Ennahda VP Abdellatif Mekki, came in line with the resumptions of political discussions. Again, Tunisia has found itself in "a closed circle" with no progress, said journalist and Academic Mounji Mabrouki. The situation is about to get more complicated, after political groups supported by the "extreme left" joined the clash, and resumed their accusations of the Ennahda Movement of partaking in violence and terrorism acts, including the assassination of the left opposition members Chokri Belaïd and Mohamed Brahmi in 2013.

In a recent press conference, Lawyer Reda Radawi, member of the board defending Belaïd and Brahmi, implied that he and his colleagues "would reveal names of judges and high-profile officials who were involved in cases of violence and terrorism in the 10 past years," including many figures in Ennahda government presided by Hamadi Jebali and Ali al-Arid in 2012-2013.

Meanwhile, feminist and legal associations supporting the left parties have launched a media campaign against what they call "fundamentalists," and "extremists," accusing them of violating women's rights, and harassing Leader of the Destourian Party Abir Moussi and her colleagues.

Other associations and parties have organized movements that call to topple Meshishi's government, the parliament, and the whole ruling class brought by the 2019 elections. They have encouraged "youth demonstrations," and "manifestations in popular areas," against the increase of prices, inflation, unemployment, poverty, and crimes. According to those groups, the current crises are the results of "politicians' failures," social and economic effects of the pandemic, in addition to the government's emergency decision to close the borders, and the lockdown that affected many sectors such as tourism, traditional industries, and services.

In all cases, the political scene in Tunisia is active these days; some parties push towards supporting the current parliamentary political coalition through conciliation with the Carthage Palace (the president) and some with opposition parties. Others seek to cause a "shock" inside this coalition to pave the road for new coalitions that could shake the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections, whether organized on time in 2024 or earlier during 2022.



A Presidential Campaign Unlike Any Other Ends on Tuesday. Here’s How We Got Here

Former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally at Atrium Health Amphitheater in Macon, Georgia, on November 3, 2024. (AFP)
Former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally at Atrium Health Amphitheater in Macon, Georgia, on November 3, 2024. (AFP)
TT

A Presidential Campaign Unlike Any Other Ends on Tuesday. Here’s How We Got Here

Former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally at Atrium Health Amphitheater in Macon, Georgia, on November 3, 2024. (AFP)
Former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally at Atrium Health Amphitheater in Macon, Georgia, on November 3, 2024. (AFP)

It's the election that no one could have foreseen.

Not so long ago, Donald Trump was marinating in self-pity at Mar-a-Lago after being impeached twice and voted out of the White House. Even some of his closest allies were looking forward to a future without the charismatic yet erratic billionaire leading the Republican Party, especially after his failed attempt to overturn an election ended in violence and shame. When Trump announced his comeback bid two years ago, the New York Post buried the article on page 26.

At the same time, Kamala Harris was languishing as a low-profile sidekick to President Joe Biden. Once seen as a rising star in the Democratic Party, she struggled with both her profile and her portfolio, disappointing her supporters and delighting her critics. No one was talking about Harris running for the top job — they were wondering if Biden should replace her as his running mate when he sought a second term.

But on Tuesday, improbable as it may have seemed before, Americans will choose either Trump or Harris to serve as the next president. It’s the final chapter in one of the most bewildering, unpredictable and consequential sagas in political history. For once, the word “unprecedented” has not been overused.

“If someone had told you ahead of time what was going to happen in this election, and you tried to sell it as a book, no one would believe it,” said Neil Newhouse, a Republican pollster with more than four decades of experience. “It’s energized the country and it’s polarized the country. And all we can hope is that we come out of it better in the end.”

Supporters of former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump participate in a caravan to show their support in West Palm Beach, Florida, on November 3, 2024. (AFP)

History was and will be made. The United States has never elected a president who has been convicted of a crime. Trump survived not one but two assassination attempts. Biden dropped out in the middle of an election year and Harris could become the first female president. Fundamental tenets about democracy in the most powerful nation on earth will be tested like no time since the Civil War.

And that’s not to mention the backdrop of simultaneous conflicts in Europe and the Middle East, hacking by foreign governments, an increasingly normalized blizzard of misinformation and the intimate involvement of the world’s richest man, Elon Musk.

For now, the only thing the country can agree on is that no one knows how the story will end.

Trump rebounded from disgrace to the Republican nomination

Republicans could have been finished with Trump after Jan. 6, 2021.

That's the day he fired up his supporters with false claims of voter fraud, directed them to march on the US Capitol while Congress was ceremonially certifying Biden's election victory, and then stood by as rioting threatened lawmakers and his own vice president.

But not enough Republicans joined with Democrats to convict Trump in an impeachment trial, clearing a path for him to run for office again.

Trump started planning a comeback even as some leaders in his party hoped he would be eclipsed by Ron DeSantis, the Florida governor, or Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor who served as Trump's ambassador to the United Nations.

In the year after Trump announced that he would run against Biden, he faced criminal charges four times. Two of the indictments were connected to his attempts to overturn his election defeat. Another involved his refusal to return classified documents to the federal government after leaving office. Trump has pleaded not guilty to all the charges, and none of those cases have been resolved.

However, a fourth indictment in New York led to Trump becoming the first president in US history to be criminally convicted. A jury found him guilty on May 30 of falsifying business records over hush money payments to a porn star who claimed they had an affair.

Supporters listen to Republican presidential nominee, former President Donald Trump as he speaks during a campaign rally at the Atrium Health Amphitheater on November 03, 2024 in Macon, Georgia. (Getty Images/AFP)

None of it slowed Trump, who practically ignored his opponents during the primary as he barreled toward the Republican presidential nomination. A mugshot from one of his arrests was adopted by his followers as a symbol of resisting a corrupt system.

Trump's candidacy capitalized on anger over inflation and frustration about migrants crossing the southern border. He also hammered Biden as too old for the job even though he's only four years younger than the president.

But Democrats also thought Biden, 81, would be better off considering retirement than a second term. So when Biden struggled through a presidential debate on June 27 — losing his train of thought, appearing confused, stammering through answers — he faced escalating pressure within his party to drop out of the race.

As Biden faced a political crisis, Trump went to an outdoor rally in Butler, Pennsylvania on July 13. A young man evaded police, climbed to the top of a nearby building and fired several shots with a semiautomatic rifle.

Trump grabbed at his ear and dropped to the stage. While Secret Service agents crowded around him, he lurched to his feet with a streak of blood across his face, thrust his fist in the air and shouted “fight, fight, fight!” An American flag billowed overhead.

It was an instantly iconic moment. Trump's path to the White House seemed clearer than ever — perhaps even inevitable.

Harris gets an unexpected opportunity at redemption

The vice president was getting ready to do a puzzle with her nieces on the morning of July 21 when Biden called. He had decided to end his reelection bid and endorse Harris as his replacement.

She spent the rest of the day making dozens of phone calls to line up support, and she had enough to secure the nomination within two days.

It was a startling reversal of fortune. Harris had flamed out when running for president four years earlier, dropping out before the first Democratic primary contest. Biden resuscitated her political career by choosing her as his running mate, and she became the first woman, Black person and person of South Asian descent to serve as vice president.

But Harris' struggles did not end there. She fumbled questions about immigration, oversaw widespread turnover in her office and faded into the background rather than use her historic status as a platform.

All of that started to change on June 24, 2022, when the US Supreme Court overturned the nationwide right to abortion enshrined by Roe v. Wade. Harris became the White House's top advocate on an issue that reshaped American politics.

US Vice President and Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris walks on stage as she arrives for a campaign rally at Michigan State University's Jenison Field House in East Lansing, Michigan, on November 3, 2024. (AFP)

She also proved to be more nimble than before. Shortly after returning from a weeklong trip to Africa, her team orchestrated a spur-of-the-moment venture to Nashville so Harris could show support for two Tennessee lawmakers who had been expelled for protesting for gun control.

Meanwhile, Harris was networking with local politicians, business leaders and cultural figures to gain ideas and build connections. When Biden dropped out, she was better positioned than many realized to seize the moment.

The day after she became the candidate, Harris jetted to Wilmington, Delaware to visit campaign headquarters. Staff members had spent the morning printing “Kamala” and “Harris for President” signs to tape up next to obsolete “Biden-Harris” posters.

There were 106 days until the end of the election.

The battle between Trump and Harris will reshape the country While speaking to campaign staff in Wilmington, Harris used a line that has become a mantra, chanted by supporters at rallies across the country. “We are not going back,” she declared.

A mariachi performer wears a pin for Democratic candidate for president US Vice President Kamala Harris at an election event for her and Democratic candidate for US Senate Ruben Gallego at Ocotillo in Phoenix, Arizona, USA, 03 November 2024. (EPA)

It's a fitting counterpoint to Trump's slogan, “make America great again,” which he has wielded since launching his first campaign more than eight years ago.

The two candidates have almost nothing in common, something that was on display on Sept. 10, when Harris and Trump met for the first time for their only televised debate.

Harris promised to restore abortion rights and use tax breaks to support small businesses and families. She said she would “be a president for all Americans.”

Trump took credit for nominating the justices that helped overturn Roe, pledged to protect the US economy with tariffs and made false claims about migrants eating people's pets. He called Harris “the worst vice president in the history of our country.”

Harris was widely viewed as gaining the upper hand. Trump insisted he won but refused a second debate. The race remained remarkably close.

Pundits and pollsters have spent the final weeks straining to identify any shift in the candidates' chances. Microscopic changes in public opinion could swing the outcome of the election. It might take days to count enough votes to determine who wins.

The outcome, whenever it becomes clear, could be just another surprise in a campaign that's been full of them.